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davidg

Gold Or Swiss

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Personally I've been into CHF since 2007, I even get my salary paid in the stuff :lol:

20110723_WOC220.gif

looking at the graph it seems over my investment horizon CHF has been a better bet than gold.

Pity the poor UN wallahs in Geneva though, many of whom are paid in USD!

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Personally I've been into CHF since 2007, I even get my salary paid in the stuff :lol:

20110723_WOC220.gif

looking at the graph it seems over my investment horizon CHF has been a better bet than gold.

Pity the poor UN wallahs in Geneva though, many of whom are paid in USD!

Gold in CHF has gone nowhere since it peaked at 1400 CHF in June 2010. I'm also paid in CHF, so don't see a compelling need to diversify into gold.

Can see CHF strengthening more but not forever, ZEW survey just come out this morning showing sharp declines, the strong CHF is hurting industry here badly and eventually this will be reflected in the currency.

If / when CHF gets to 1:1 on Euro and 1.20 GBP/CHF , I'll be looking at using some of it to purchase very reduced in local currency terms real assets in EU and UK.

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Gold in CHF has gone nowhere since it peaked at 1400 CHF in June 2010. I'm also paid in CHF, so don't see a compelling need to diversify into gold.

Can see CHF strengthening more but not forever, ZEW survey just come out this morning showing sharp declines, the strong CHF is hurting industry here badly and eventually this will be reflected in the currency.

If / when CHF gets to 1:1 on Euro and 1.20 GBP/CHF , I'll be looking at using some of it to purchase very reduced in local currency terms real assets in EU and UK.

That sounds like a plan.Think I might start a firm cleaning the dung out of Cuckoo Clocks.

Edited by profitofdoom

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Personally I've been into CHF since 2007, I even get my salary paid in the stuff :lol:

20110723_WOC220.gif

looking at the graph it seems over my investment horizon CHF has been a better bet than gold.

Pity the poor UN wallahs in Geneva though, many of whom are paid in USD!

That graph is rather deceptive - I'd look a little more closely at the scales on it (hint: the gold scale starts at zero). Since 2007, gold has more than doubled in price, whereas the CHF has appreciated by roughly 25%. So gold would have been a much better investment, all else being equal.

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Gold in CHF has gone nowhere since it peaked at 1400 CHF in June 2010. I'm also paid in CHF, so don't see a compelling need to diversify into gold.

Can see CHF strengthening more but not forever, ZEW survey just come out this morning showing sharp declines, the strong CHF is hurting industry here badly and eventually this will be reflected in the currency.

If / when CHF gets to 1:1 on Euro and 1.20 GBP/CHF , I'll be looking at using some of it to purchase very reduced in local currency terms real assets in EU and UK.

Sounds like a plan. Just remember when CHF hits 1.2 it'll hold quite well while Rome (and the rest of Europe+UK) crumbles so sit tight. Mrs Posh is also paid in CHF however that's about to change :(

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That graph is rather deceptive - I'd look a little more closely at the scales on it (hint: the gold scale starts at zero). Since 2007, gold has more than doubled in price, whereas the CHF has appreciated by roughly 25%. So gold would have been a much better investment, all else being equal.

Was going to post the same. The chart visuals give one indication but looking at the figures give another completely.

Swiss Franc from about 75 - 123

Gold from about 290 - 1600.

Big difference from what I can see.

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Was going to post the same. The chart visuals give one indication but looking at the figures give another completely.

Swiss Franc from about 75 - 123

Gold from about 290 - 1600.

Big difference from what I can see.

Well yes but i would imagine once you added in the yield on the CHF over the period i would guess it to be far better,

However the last decade gold has outperformed everything, whilst over the last year the CHF has outperformed Gold, swings and roundabouts but i would suggest CHF is effectively a low beta play on Gold or at least has been. Mainly because the Govt havent purposely stealth inflated over many decades to expand the size of state, likely because it is a Direct Democracy

Edited by Mary Cassatt

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Was going to post the same. The chart visuals give one indication but looking at the figures give another completely.

Swiss Franc from about 75 - 123

Gold from about 290 - 1600.

Big difference from what I can see.

There's a very obvious reason for that.

Re OP, I suppose it's rather futile suggesting it's a crowded trade? Thought so.

Mainly because the Govt havent purposely stealth inflated over many decades to expand the size of state, likely because it is a Direct Democracy

Or perhaps coz there's a shed load more EUSSROs looking for a home than there are cuckoo clocks to hide it all in. Like a ten ton truck reversing into a Nissan Micra.

Edited by Red Karma

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There's a very obvious reason for that.

Re OP, I suppose it's rather futile suggesting it's a crowded trade? Thought so.

Or perhaps coz there's a shed load more EUSSROs looking for a home than there are cuckoo clocks to hide it all in. Like a ten ton truck reversing into a Nissan Micra.

Nah most of the devaluation took place before thre EUSSRO came to be, its been strngthening since the 70s (Bretton) and it only came of the gold standard since the Euro came to be

Edited by Mary Cassatt

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There are no safe havens / risk free assets.

All that we can do is choose the risks that we are willing to accept.

Tinned food, freezed dried food. However even these aren't safe as you need to be able to store and protect them.

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Was going to post the same. The chart visuals give one indication but looking at the figures give another completely.

Swiss Franc from about 75 - 123

Gold from about 290 - 1600.

Big difference from what I can see.

yes it is deceptive, even over the last 4 year timescale it is not clear how the scales equate

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Can see CHF strengthening more but not forever, ZEW survey just come out this morning showing sharp declines, the strong CHF is hurting industry here badly and eventually this will be reflected in the currency.

Yes there are already a number of stories relating to these problems including foreign workers being forced to take pay cuts and increased working time. Lonza has increased its working week from 42 to 44.5 hours for example (FYI: 20 days holiday and 42 hours being standard work contracts in CH).

We do a lot of govt. and bank work so are less affected by the short term appreciation but no time to be complacent.

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Now that the Swiss sold a large chunk of their gold, the CHF is just another piece of fiat paper, and while it enjoys some temporary safe haven status, its true value as a piece of unbacked paper will in time be realised and then the only real currency will be left standing, as it has done for 6000 years : gold. Gold IS money !

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Why would you move into these now, aren't gold and chf at all time highs because of all the eu rubbish?

probably because practically everyone likes piling into something when it is at its highest and most bullish so they can have their derriere handed to them on a plate at some point

Edited by Mary Cassatt

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Why would you move into these now, aren't gold and chf at all time highs because of all the eu rubbish?

Because the intrinsic value of every debt-based paper fiat currency in history asymptotically approaches its intrinsic value of zero. Gold priced in that fiat then approaches infinity. A bet against gold is a bet that this trend will be different this time. That is the real high risk strategy.

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Why would you move into these now, aren't gold and chf at all time highs because of all the eu rubbish?

Yes, this is the definitive containment action by the EU and when the Europeans come back from their August holidays, everything will be back to normal. Everything is hunky-dory in the U.K. and the U.S. as well.

Edited by Take Me Back To London!

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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