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Where Are We Now?

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I've noticed it has been a quiet few weeks on the NI forum. It this the lull before the storm? Are we in the eye now or is this the new norm - low transaction levels, small FTB numbers and historically low mortgage interest rate?

I would like to hear others view. How do you think your market will function in the future? What kind of average prices do you see for the resell and new build market?

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well just an insight into what i experienced over the last week...

bid on a house in derry, nice 4 bed semi, detached garage, good area and excellent garden. made an opening bid of 136500, asking price was 150k.

Its now been bid up to 155k as of yesterday, 3 parties bidding on it. After our intial offer some clown came straight in with their opening offer of 145 (why so high as a first bid!?) I obviously ruled ourselves out, but id say its been quite a while since the EA had 3 people bidding on a house and bidding it up over asking price

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well just an insight into what i experienced over the last week...

bid on a house in derry, nice 4 bed semi, detached garage, good area and excellent garden. made an opening bid of 136500, asking price was 150k.

Its now been bid up to 155k as of yesterday, 3 parties bidding on it. After our intial offer some clown came straight in with their opening offer of 145 (why so high as a first bid!?) I obviously ruled ourselves out, but id say its been quite a while since the EA had 3 people bidding on a house and bidding it up over asking price

Market is still flush with idiots, hands need to be well and truly burnt for this to change but given the current stupidity of the BoE this won't be any time soon.

At least NI has experienced a crash, England on the other hand is still living in La La Land.

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who knows ... I haven't been browsing the forum for a few weeks because I have been getting a bit disillusioned with the housing market here. I just cant see any common sense in it all.

I am still confident that the market will go down, I have seen nothing to suggest otherwise and all the economic forecasts are miserable. But as to when the penny will actually drop ... that is the million dollar question.

Hopefully sooner rather than later!

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This is where we are, but you wouldn't think it by looking at asking prices or listening to EA's

Property transactions in NI are 63% below peak

Average prices in NI are down some 50%

Houses that do sell take, on average, 9 months - many are festering unsold for 3 yrs or more

There are many unfinished estates scattered throughout the province

£4 billion of cuts have yet to be implemented in NI

There are many court cases clogging the system - bust developers, private bankruptcies and investors trying to get out of contracted purchases

Average FTB age is mid 30s

The republic is goosed - so not too many investors coming from that direction

Average selling price is 7 times the average salary

Banks are changing the terms of mortgage debtors who have bitten off more than they can chew - delay and pray, pretend and extend

The Govt is paying the interest for thousands of mortgage debtors.

BOE fears devestation if it increases IR's by 0.25%

Savers (7 times more prevalent than borrowers) and those on fixed income, pensioners/benefits are being hammered more than most by inflation, with low interest rates hitting savers.

Inflation is outstripping any wage increases that there may be.

VAT rise. Pay freezes/cuts.

Banks have set up shell companies to buy their own properties

NAMA is active in NI

All, especially families, getting hammered with inflation - petrol, food, heating oil, clothes, car insurance

The construction industry is in 'freefall' - see the NI economy thread

NI is still in recession - the retail and construction industries are in real ongoing difficulties

Vacant properties will be rated from Oct 1st

Banks are lending - responsibly in most cases (Northern 100%!!!) and cautiously. This will not change anytime soon. The days of 50% of mortgages being IO or self cert are over.

The mood of the public and the media (and even, slowly EA's/RICS and other VI's) has changed perceptibly in the past 6 months. So no more rebound, no more 'back to normal' but rather a hope for stability after some more gradual falls.

Pictures of riots flashed all over the world and ongoing threat of violence

A large auction is due in the next month or so, to establish a floor in the market

The reality gap - asking v selling UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-14183649

"That puts the reality gap at 41% based on the Nationwide's figures or 45% on those from the Halifax."

Euro/USA/Libya

I'm sure I've left something out - feel free to add.

A politician coined the phrase "credit crunch and grind" We are now starting the grind phase. Mervyn King said there's 5 more years to come. The markets may raise interest rates for him. Can you imagine the panic?

There has been a pause for breath over the past few months. My attitude has hardened. It is going to get very interesting very quickly.

I'm betting on EA's survival instinct kicking in soon, but it won't take that anyway - the dam's about to burst. The market has all but stalled anyway and has only one way to go.

Stupid selling prices and complicit EA's are about to go the way of the dinosaur.

I'm betting my house on it.

Edited by Shotoflight

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This is where we are, but you wouldn't think it by looking at asking prices or listening to EA's

Property transactions in NI are 63% below peak

Average prices in NI are down some 50%

Houses that do sell take, on average, 9 months - many are festering unsold for 3 yrs or more

There are many unfinished estates scattered throughout the province

£4 billion of cuts have yet to be implemented in NI

There are many court cases clogging the system - bust developers, private bankruptcies and investors trying to get out of contracted purchases

Average FTB age is mid 30s

The republic is goosed - so not too many investors coming from that direction

Average selling price is 7 times the average salary

Banks are changing the terms of mortgage debtors who have bitten off more than they can chew - delay and pray, pretend and extend

The Govt is paying the interest for thousands of mortgage debtors.

BOE fears devestation if it increases IR's by 0.25%

Savers (7 times more prevalent than borrowers) and those on fixed income, pensioners/benefits are being hammered more than most by inflation, with low interest rates hitting savers.

Inflation is outstripping any wage increases that there may be.

VAT rise. Pay freezes/cuts.

Banks have set up shell companies to buy their own properties

NAMA is active in NI

All, especially families, getting hammered with inflation - petrol, food, heating oil, clothes, car insurance

The construction industry is in 'freefall' - see the NI economy thread

NI is still in recession - the retail and construction industries are in real ongoing difficulties

Vacant properties will be rated from Oct 1st

Banks are lending - responsibly in most cases (Northern 100%!!!) and cautiously. This will not change anytime soon. The days of 50% of mortgages being IO or self cert are over.

The mood of the public and the media (and even, slowly EA's/RICS and other VI's) has changed perceptibly in the past 6 months. So no more rebound, no more 'back to normal' but rather a hope for stability after some more gradual falls.

Pictures of riots flashed all over the world and ongoing threat of violence

A large auction is due in the next month or so, to establish a floor in the market

The reality gap - asking v selling UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-14183649

"That puts the reality gap at 41% based on the Nationwide's figures or 45% on those from the Halifax."

Euro/USA/Libya

I'm sure I've left something out - feel free to add.

A politician coined the phrase "credit crunch and grind" We are now starting the grind phase. Mervyn King said there's 5 more years to come. The markets may raise interest rates for him. Can you imagine the panic?

There has been a pause for breath over the past few months. My attitude has hardened. It is going to get very interesting very quickly.

I'm betting on EA's survival instinct kicking in soon, but it won't take that anyway - the dam's about to burst. The market has all but stalled anyway and has only one way to go.

Stupid selling prices and complicit EA's are about to go the way of the dinosaur.

I'm betting my house on it.

Ah, we can always count on you Shotoflight to tell it as it is!

It seems to me that many buyers now simply can't (as opposed to won't) buy at today's prices on affordability/mortgage considerations alone, so in that sense they have no choice but to wait on sellers reducing their prices. As yet, we've none of the forced selling that happened in the last crash to shake the tree so until rates rise I think we are in for a slow grind down to the bottom if the BoE manages to keep control, but that could be a very big IF.

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The last house sold in my area by an EA was around 5 weeks ago. Yet EA are still valuing houses too high. Some of the EA have their nose in the rental market. Others dont. So how are those not in the rental market surviving?

Average asking price is around 150k for something decent. How low the vendors will go from this asking price is anyones guess but i bet most wont go too much lower.

It just seems no-one is in a rush to sell. And thats a major advantage in their favour.

Edited by pajd

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The last house sold in my area by an EA was around 5 weeks ago. Yet EA are still valuing houses too high. Some of the EA have their nose in the rental market. Others dont. So how are those not in the rental market surviving?

Average asking price is around 150k for something decent. How low the vendors will go from this asking price is anyones guess but i bet most wont go too much lower.

It just seems no-one is in a rush to sell. And thats a major advantage in their favour.

I feel your pain. Sometimes though the picture is clouded by watching daily and weekly - I do it, you probably do it and EA's do it. It's better, though difficult, to take quarterly, half yearly or annual views. As each house sold in the boom created/cemented new highs, each house sold now (or many of them) are moving the market down towards overall reality.

With sales running at 63% below peak, setting new lows becomes harder/slower than when, going up there were 3 times the sales. Also now, choice is obviously restricted by two thirds.

Most resellers won't or can't face this willingly due to greed, pride or debt.

Builders, however are grasping reality, some downsizers can face reality due to massive unearned wealth/equity. The three Ds (Death Debt Divorce) and negative sentiment are grinding away in the background. Financial distress leads to relationship difficulties. None of these are anything to cheer about, just natural influences on this 'market'.

Banks, for the most part have wised up - to protect themselves, and as a consequence to protect people from themselves.

This grind may be slower than we like, but check out Lolacarrascal's graphs pinned at the top of this page for a reality check over the medium term.

There is nothing on the horizon to increase house prices. Average prices will not remain 7 times the average salary.

People can stick a board in the garden for 2 yrs or more without a single viewing - perhaps some think it's fun, or things will get better next week? I think it would be both stressful and embarrasing as others see their greed or ineptitude at reading the market (or both). There is a price for most houses, just not the one most sellers hope for.

A relatively new 5 bed detached with integral garage has just come on in my area at RV + 20% stating it will go to auction if unsold at this 'very realistic' price. A crack, a new tactic and the first time I have seen this. Some do want or need to sell. That number will increase.

The spring and summer residue of hope is still lingering in EA's windows and sellers minds. There is a large mid sector overhang - this is where we find the squeezed middle. Yes you cannot force someone to drop their price or sell a house, but as any retailer knows, it is even harder to persuade someone to buy something if they don't want it or can't afford it. Its like deflation - you don't want to go there because it is much harder to turn sentiment round as buyers wait and withdraw and find they can get along nicely, thank you very much, without accepting your 'invitation to treat'.

The more and longer EA's and sellers try to distort this market on the upside, the longer it will take for it to settle at reality, but settle it will. They really are shooting themselves in the foot.

Will houses just not sell? Doesn't bother me, I'll manage.

An overused cliche but, I suspect, EA's and sellers are like the swan - calm and serene above the water but paddling furiously under the water (and bricking it).

Ancient Chinese proverb. Slowly slowly catchee monkey. ;)

Edited by Shotoflight

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July will always be a non-starter for the property market as most of the country is shutdown with Summer holidays, factory shutdowns, bank holiday weeks, etc. Once we get into the late-Summer/early-Autumn selling season, the price drops will continue on as before.

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I'm wondering if I should carry on waiting for interest rates to rise. I think we are going to continue to see falls in the monthly indexes but I firmly believe we will see much much larger falls when interest rates start to rise again particularly in the resale market. That’s not to say I don’t think the new build market is massively overprice also.

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Excellent post shotoflight. Thanks for taking the time to analyse it so well.

Hope some readers get something out of it to help with any decisions they may make. Would also be happy for any rebuttals, as a matter of interest/debate/balance.

On the topic of helping others, could you perhaps use your influence/contacts to see if the property bee issue in NI (Property News) could be resolved - a sort of a quid pro quo? I appreciate it is a niche interest in the big scheme of things, that things are quiet all over at the mo and you have many more important things to do but I'm thinking a cry for help on the main forum may elicit some sympathy. Even if it took a week or two.

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Hope some readers get something out of it to help with any decisions they may make. Would also be happy for any rebuttals, as a matter of interest/debate/balance.

On the topic of helping others, could you perhaps use your influence/contacts to see if the property bee issue in NI (Property News) could be resolved - a sort of a quid pro quo? I appreciate it is a niche interest in the big scheme of things, that things are quiet all over at the mo and you have many more important things to do but I'm thinking a cry for help on the main forum may elicit some sympathy. Even if it took a week or two.

I'd be happy to chip in for expenses. I'm new to the Bee but find it fantastic help.

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I think it would be wise to wait till propertynews beta site becomes the main site just in case they make more changes. Does the Bee work on propertypal?

I've no idea Doccy. I'll check on my PC this evening.

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I've no idea Doccy. I'll check on my PC this evening.

Cheers lads (or lassies, or......) anyway Doccyboy that is a good idea to let things settle. I am a bit behind times re tecchie stuff (and my trusty lappy is 5 yrs old) so there is a slight chance it is just me, so don't wan't to push too hard. I'll sit tight whilst others check and collaborate.

I never really got the hang of property pal but I have noticed recently 3 or 4 props appearing there and not on Property News. Will Prop News try to charge more for the new site, or have they started?

Have you seen how quickly UTV try to read through for sale properties in the news ad break - its like how they used to read through the small print on financial ads a while back.

Thanks again - it will be to everyone's benefit.

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Cheers lads (or lassies, or......) anyway Doccyboy that is a good idea to let things settle. I am a bit behind times re tecchie stuff (and my trusty lappy is 5 yrs old) so there is a slight chance it is just me, so don't wan't to push too hard. I'll sit tight whilst others check and collaborate.

I never really got the hang of property pal but I have noticed recently 3 or 4 props appearing there and not on Property News. Will Prop News try to charge more for the new site, or have they started?

Have you seen how quickly UTV try to read through for sale properties in the news ad break - its like how they used to read through the small print on financial ads a while back.

Thanks again - it will be to everyone's benefit.

i dont know why, but ive always found propertypal more appealing and easy to use/navigate than propertynews. I like the 'insighst' page etc on it too.

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Beerhunter is troubleshooting the PB update for release shortly. I know he needs around £500 by the end of the year for hosting costs so I've donated £20 as it hasn't been much craic browsing without it recently, and hope we can help him get somewhere near it.

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i dont know why, but ive always found propertypal more appealing and easy to use/navigate than propertynews. I like the 'insighst' page etc on it too.

Going on this example, their average prices on the insight page are in fantasy land - perhaps this is what gives sellers and EA's the nerve to ask fantasy prices.

http://www.propertypal.com/8-demesne-road-downpatrick/154014/statistics

Prop featured by the way has a RV of £165,000 - asking Offers over £247,000! :rolleyes:

Edited by Shotoflight

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Going on this example, their average prices on the insight page are in fantasy land - perhaps this is what gives sellers and EA's the nerve to ask fantasy prices.

http://www.propertypal.com/8-demesne-road-downpatrick/154014/statistics

Prop featured by the way has a RV of £165,000 - asking Offers over £247,000! :rolleyes:

i never pay any heed to the 'average' price tab. But the 'time on market' and showing the rateable value is pretty handy

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How anyone can tell what market price for any house is these days is beyond me.

I'm looking around a few house in the same area. All build roughly the same time. varying styles of 3/4 bed semis.

The prices range from £119 - £165.

Am i tyre kicking by viewing these houses?

I should really be just saying to the agent "which ones of these sellers are in bad need of a sale and willing to play ball?"

I don't wanna waste mine or the sellers time by dancing around the issue.

Even the cheapest ones are more than I would pay for them.

Am i just gonna keep lobbing low ball offers in and waiting so they keep refusing and the they just slowly get cheaper every few months?

Looks like it...

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How anyone can tell what market price for any house is these days is beyond me.

I'm looking around a few house in the same area. All build roughly the same time. varying styles of 3/4 bed semis.

The prices range from £119 - £165.

Am i tyre kicking by viewing these houses?

I should really be just saying to the agent "which ones of these sellers are in bad need of a sale and willing to play ball?"

I don't wanna waste mine or the sellers time by dancing around the issue.

Even the cheapest ones are more than I would pay for them.

Am i just gonna keep lobbing low ball offers in and waiting so they keep refusing and the they just slowly get cheaper every few months?

Looks like it...

Thats not really fair on the vendors though, is it? BTW what area u looking at?

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How anyone can tell what market price for any house is these days is beyond me.

I'm looking around a few house in the same area. All build roughly the same time. varying styles of 3/4 bed semis.

The prices range from £119 - £165.

Am i tyre kicking by viewing these houses?

I should really be just saying to the agent "which ones of these sellers are in bad need of a sale and willing to play ball?"

I don't wanna waste mine or the sellers time by dancing around the issue.

Even the cheapest ones are more than I would pay for them.

Am i just gonna keep lobbing low ball offers in and waiting so they keep refusing and the they just slowly get cheaper every few months?

Looks like it...

Dunders - the short answer is i think you are.I put in a cheeky bid on a house recently just to get things started and try to lower the vendors expectations.It was rejected and the EA came back with an offer from someone else £30k higher than mine!I declared myself out!Who is going to wallop the bidding up by £30k from the previous higest bid inside two weeks?

Crazy but there you are.

It looks like it will take some time yet before vendors realise that they just aren`t going to get 30% more than what their house is actually worth and that yesterdays hp`s were a once in a lifetime bubble.

Good luck anyway. I hope you find what you are looking for.

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I am not going to view a single house until prices are more value for money. Every time you view a house you give vendors the false idea that there house is worth the asking price.

It is the vendor who will be showing me round this house, so I will be making it very clear what my views are on the price. I won't be leading anyone on.

I'm in no rush at the minute, but if I get a house at what i consider a reasonable price, I'll be taking it off their hands.

I can be confident enough that it will be still there in 6 months at a cheaper price anyway, so no odds to me!

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It is the vendor who will be showing me round this house, so I will be making it very clear what my views are on the price. I won't be leading anyone on.

I'm in no rush at the minute, but if I get a house at what i consider a reasonable price, I'll be taking it off their hands.

I can be confident enough that it will be still there in 6 months at a cheaper price anyway, so no odds to me!

Make sure you give the tyres a good kick, tut a lot and every so often whistle by sucking in whilst shaking your head.

They'll soon get the message :lol::lol:

Edited by Malthus

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So where are we in terms of new builds?

I think some are overpriced, particularly in the Lisburn area.

My question is, with costs to the builder rising (not to mention vacant rates in Oct) will prices really come down?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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