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ken_ichikawa

No Inflation Here

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http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/07/07/chained-cpi-a-link-to-a-budget-deal/

According to congressional aides familiar with the discussions, the proposal would shift how the Consumer Price Index is calculated to reflect how people tend to change spending patterns when prices increase. For example, consumers tend to drive less when gas prices increase dramatically. Such a move is widely seen by economists as resulting in a slower rise in inflation." Today the WSJ's Damian Paletta follows up on this ludicrous yet serious proposal: "One proposal in the budget talks that is getting a serious look from all sides would switch the government’s way of measuring inflation and delivering a big impact on tax, spending, and entitlement programs. How big? It could save roughly $300 billion over 10 years. That big. The idea of using this different measure of inflation, known as a “chained” consumer price index, has won support from numerous deficit-reduction commissions as well as many liberal and conservative economists." Yet reminding everyone that there is no such thing as a free lunch in finance, the "biggest savings—an estimated $112 billion—would be from slowing the growth in the cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security beneficiaries." Sure enough someone is unhappy. Enter the

Looks like desperation to me. If CPI (an index) isn't fradulent enough lets change the rules.

So whats going to be in the basket..... NOTHING ergo NO inflation

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http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/07/07/chained-cpi-a-link-to-a-budget-deal/

Looks like desperation to me. If CPI (an index) isn't fradulent enough lets change the rules.

So whats going to be in the basket..... NOTHING ergo NO inflation

If you can hedonically adjust the basket fast enough to incorporate stuff that is deflating or not inflating at that moment due to printy you can achieve whatever inflation rate you want. The models are running things now.

Reality always wins.

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http://blogs.wsj.com...-a-budget-deal/

According to congressional aides familiar with the discussions, the proposal would shift how the Consumer Price Index is calculated (...)

Looks like desperation to me. If CPI (an index) isn't fradulent enough lets change the rules.

So whats going to be in the basket..... NOTHING ergo NO inflation

Looks like a good plan.

As long as it replaces RPI too.

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Shouldn't inflation be measured as a range of values, rather than a single, all-encompassing number?

I would base it on something like the Maslow's hierarchy of needs pyramid, where there are a different rates for the different levels.

So, tier one inflation would measure inflation in the core needs of man - inflation in the cost of food, etc.

Level two would be inflation in the cost of shelter, health, etc.

And so on.

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Reminds me of a video by wallstreetbear and eating mud pies.

Economics is trending towards scientic lunacy and fraud. A good way to disguise the transition from first world to third world in generation.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Economics is trending towards scientic lunacy and fraud. A good way to disguise the transition from first world to third world in generation.

When was it anything but?

I mix 2 chemicals, they do stuff, again and again. That's science.

I mix 2 humans, they do different stuff over and over again. That's economics, but it isn't science. The fraud is claiming it's science.

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Shouldn't inflation be measured as a range of values, rather than a single, all-encompassing number?

I would base it on something like the Maslow's hierarchy of needs pyramid, where there are a different rates for the different levels.

So, tier one inflation would measure inflation in the core needs of man - inflation in the cost of food, etc.

Level two would be inflation in the cost of shelter, health, etc.

And so on.

What a good idea.

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When was it anything but?

I mix 2 chemicals, they do stuff, again and again. That's science.

I mix 2 humans, they do different stuff over and over again. That's economics, but it isn't science. The fraud is claiming it's science.

Actually, you are absolutely correct.

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Back in the real world.

Grocery price hikes hit households

Tuesday, 19 July 2011http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/grocery-price-hikes-hit-households-16025192.html

Prices at UK supermarkets are rising faster than expected and will continue to put pressure on households in the coming months, industry figures have revealed.

Kantar Worldpanel said grocery prices rose by 4.8% in the 12 weeks to July 11 compared to a year ago, up from 4.6% in the middle of May.

The market research firm, which previously said that inflation would not rise above 5% this year, now expects it to hit that target and perhaps go beyond in coming months.

Martin Whittingham, a director at Kantar, said: "The increasing inflation rate is putting extra pressure on shoppers' ability to manage their household budgets. With this in mind we expect the grocery market to slow in the coming months."

Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/grocery-price-hikes-hit-households-16025192.html#ixzz1Sae84fFn

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When was it anything but?

I mix 2 chemicals, they do stuff, again and again. That's science.

I mix 2 humans, they do different stuff over and over again. That's economics, but it isn't science. The fraud is claiming it's science.

...economics is an art...and like all art there is good, bad and in between .... :rolleyes:

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They'll be telling people there's no inflation right the way up to a loaf of bread costing $50, hopefully the people will twig before this point and start taking to the streets.

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Shouldn't inflation be measured as a range of values, rather than a single, all-encompassing number?

I would base it on something like the Maslow's hierarchy of needs pyramid, where there are a different rates for the different levels.

So, tier one inflation would measure inflation in the core needs of man - inflation in the cost of food, etc.

Level two would be inflation in the cost of shelter, health, etc.

And so on.

What a brilliant idea. With lets say CPI1 for essentials, CPI2 for luxuries. Pensions and benefits could then increase in line with CPI1.

The government couldn't afford to implement it right now, but as a thoerietical idea I really like it.

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Shouldn't inflation be measured as a range of values, rather than a single, all-encompassing number?

I would base it on something like the Maslow's hierarchy of needs pyramid, where there are a different rates for the different levels.

So, tier one inflation would measure inflation in the core needs of man - inflation in the cost of food, etc.

Level two would be inflation in the cost of shelter, health, etc.

And so on.

Good idea. Has anybody got any datasets that will allow us to work this out?

Also, is there anybody here with enough academic clout to publish this and get taken seriously? Failing that, let's start a think tank and publish our own reports on inflation.

Edit: to correct for the terrible wrong word corrections my phone keeps making. Sometimes you actualy type the ******* word you want with no mistakes, and it just randomly changes it.

Edited by SpectrumFX

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The energy component of this new CPI should be based on £10 of petrol. Problem gone.

That's economic genius. If only we could find a way of including £10 of bread, and so on with the other items, we'd eliminate inflation completely. :unsure:

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This may have already been postulated elsewhere, but......

The inclusion of relatively short lived consumer electronics in the index allows greater than 100% deflation for a given 'device'. Let us take, for example, a generic "record TV for later watching" device. This started out as a VCR (say £400 when first introduced), later people gave up buying them (in fact no longer manufactured) and was taken out of the basket and replaced by DVD players (again around £400 on introduction) these later being replaced by BluRay players (again £400 on intro). All these technologies where down to sub £50 by the time they were removed. On each 'jig' of the basket, the price is 'reset' to £400 with no impact on inflation because they are a 'new type of device'. So the total devaluation for a "record TV for later watching" device is £350 + £350 + £350 in three product generations. Thus total devaluation for a £400 device is £1050!!

Just another clever way of manipulating the index down.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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