Data Dave Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 You know what makes me giggle - way back when, before we used Gold as a medium of exchange / account, whenever that was and im guessing we maybe just used the barter method? If you had of come to me (then) and said we have this new scarce precious metal called Gold, its revolutionary and will be used to for thousands of years. Id have told you to clear off! I know for certain that I would have been a late adopter!! 😆 I would have walked off from that conversation thinking, what a load of old tutt, Ill stick to my 1 chicken = 5lb of grain (or whatever the 'exchange rate' was) thank you very much. A 'metal' which I cant mine or produce, I dont set the price of and that other merchants could just stop accepting; no thanks - no bueno. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Zimbabwe to introduce gold coins as local currency tumbles https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/05/zimbabwe-to-introduce-gold-coins-as-local-currency-tumbles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Data Dave said: You know what makes me giggle - way back when, before we used Gold as a medium of exchange / account, whenever that was and im guessing we maybe just used the barter method? If you had of come to me (then) and said we have this new scarce precious metal called Gold, its revolutionary and will be used to for thousands of years. Id have told you to clear off! I know for certain that I would have been a late adopter!! 😆 I would have walked off from that conversation thinking, what a load of old tutt, Ill stick to my 1 chicken = 5lb of grain (or whatever the 'exchange rate' was) thank you very much. A 'metal' which I cant mine or produce, I dont set the price of and that other merchants could just stop accepting; no thanks - no bueno. The development of 'money' was what enabled specialisation of skills and enabled a massive expansion of societal productivity. Without some form of usable exchange, we'd all be spending out time farming or hunting to keep ourselves fed. Or forming feudal armies to force peasants to farm it for us on land we grabbed from them ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Sour Mash said: The development of 'money' was what enabled specialisation of skills and enabled a massive expansion of societal productivity. Without some form of usable exchange, we'd all be spending out time farming or hunting to keep ourselves fed. Or forming feudal armies to force peasants to farm it for us on land we grabbed from them ... 👍 3 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Zimbabwe to introduce gold coins as local currency tumbles https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/05/zimbabwe-to-introduce-gold-coins-as-local-currency-tumbles They unpegged, did they not, from the USD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Well would you look at that: Even though the gold (and silver) price has been hammered, to actually buy metal the price has barely changed since my last purchase in May. What more evidence that the "gold price" is not reflective oh physical markets, it is a paper price that is disconnected from physical markets and should have no influence over what real metal trades hands for. As time goes by I expect the paper and physical price to diverge more and more in western currencies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverfinger Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 (edited) On 28/06/2022 at 14:00, Data Dave said: In that scenario there will likely be a run on physical Gold as everyone rushes to cash in andddd its this I believe that will cause lazy old merry Gold to have a violent spike to the upside. So in my opinion, the start of the Gold party and subsequent bull run could be a with HUGE bang. Maybe Putin or the Chinese will be the trigger some time soon. Meanwhile, I am snapping up dirt-cheap Britannias all the way. Edited July 6, 2022 by Silverfinger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 3 hours ago, Silverfinger said: Meanwhile, I am snapping up dirt-cheap Britannias all the way. Can you point me to where I can find these dirt cheap Britannias?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 18 hours ago, nero120 said: What more evidence that the "gold price" is not reflective oh physical markets, it is a paper price that is disconnected from physical markets and should have no influence over what real metal trades hands for. As time goes by I expect the paper and physical price to diverge more and more in western currencies. How do you think this will play out or start to 'reveal' and do you have price targets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Data Dave said: How do you think this will play out or start to 'reveal' and do you have price targets? Well that's the $64T question! Tbh I don't think anyone knows how it will play out, there are simply too many variables and by their nature, major reserve currency events are rare (once every several generations give or take). Commodity prices are currently set in western futures markets where leverage and speculation can make prices swing wildly, my guess is that increasingly eastern markets (Russia, China, UAE, etc) will fix prices to physical commodities and these prices will diverge from western paper markets. As they do, arbitrage will cause commodities to be bought in the west and sold in the east until no one can actually buy those commodities in the west (even though western markets will continue to trade paper and publish prices). This will continue until western governments suffer enough pain at which point they will either close those paper markets or make them physical settled so that the arbitrage closes as prices rise to meet the east. We are already seeing the beginnings of this, Russia has all but abandoned working with the west and are now dictating to "unfriendly" western customers the terms of the trade if they want Russia's resources. I think this will continue with Russia becoming less and less interested with trade with the west if all they are getting is worthless paper in return. However Russia are clearly trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US/UK so realpolitik overrules profit motive for now, they will continue to trade with Europe and accept Euros whilst they think they can wrest Europe from the grip of the US. These are geo-political events so price targets are meaningless. My only suggestion is to buy whatever physical commodities you need now since very easily overnight they could become unavailable if markets diverge suddenly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 USDX is hurting gold... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 2 hours ago, warpig said: USDX is hurting gold... Always found that curious, how does a relative measure of USD strength against other fiat currencies bear any relation to the gold/dollar exchange rate? Surely in a rational world, gold in dollars would only fall if markets were selling gold to buy dollars, not selling euro/yen/sterling/etc to buy dollars? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 2 hours ago, nero120 said: Always found that curious, how does a relative measure of USD strength against other fiat currencies bear any relation to the gold/dollar exchange rate? Surely in a rational world, gold in dollars would only fall if markets were selling gold to buy dollars, not selling euro/yen/sterling/etc to buy dollars? Imagine a financial crisis, where developing nations need to settle dollar denominated loans and simultaneously countries increase their USD foreign reserves. The current demand for USD could easily be greater than current supply and is deflationary for the currency. Given commodities are typically traded in USD because it's the reserve currency, anything typically denominated in it, would lose value. Loosely speaking... dollar up commodities down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 4 hours ago, warpig said: Imagine a financial crisis, where developing nations need to settle dollar denominated loans and simultaneously countries increase their USD foreign reserves. The current demand for USD could easily be greater than current supply and is deflationary for the currency. Given commodities are typically traded in USD because it's the reserve currency, anything typically denominated in it, would lose value. Loosely speaking... dollar up commodities down. Then why doesn't *everything* priced in dollars go down? (Stocks/bonds/property/etc) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 (edited) Here are some examples to clarify my point re DXY vs gold price: https://www.learcapital.com/lear-learning-center/us-dollar-vs-gold-price-correlation/ Quote Given that gold is priced and traded in U.S. dollars, you might wonder how movement in one affects the other. The most common understanding of this relationship is the stronger the value of the U.S. dollar, the lower the price of gold. Well that's not entirely true, do I need to convert sterling to dollars to buy gold in a coin shop? Nope. Do I need to convert sterling to dollars to buy gold on the LBMA? Nope. So then why would the dollar getting stronger against sterling bear any connection to the dollar/gold exchange rate? Is there more gold suddenly produced as a result of that exchange rate changing? Nope. Does me being able to purchase more sterling for my dollars allow me to purchase more gold? Well only if I purchase it in sterling, but then the gold price in sterling would rise to close any arbitrage. Another example: https://www.mohdarafat.com/dollar-index-gold/ Quote When investors wants to park their money in any asset, They asses if gold give them better value or US Dollar. If they choose gold then USD Index tend to go down if they choose to invest in dollar, Gold price may crash. Now days we are seeing this current scenario which is extremely unlikely. US and China are between trade war and we are seeing rise in Dollar Index as investors are betting more on greenback than gold. Due to investor’s money we are seeing rising dollar index and crashing gold prices. When US Dollar gets stronger, It takes fewer dollars to buy gold as its priced in US Dollar, When dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase gold. So If Dollar Index is trading at 90 and it goes towards 92 then it takes fewer dollar to buy gold eventually reducing gold prices in $. Selling sterling to buy dollars has no connection to gold, so wouldn't influence the gold price in dollars (i.e. gold/dollar exchange rate). Selling GOLD to buy dollars (and vice versa) would obviously have an effect on that exchange rate, so only when markets are selling gold to buy dollars should the gold price in dollars fall. This is just nonsense. Why would a flight out of fiat currencies into dollars bear any relation to gold? If the markets are selling sterling to buy dollars, does that affect the dollar/euro exchange rate? No of course not. Personally, I think not many people actually understand the relationship between gold and currencies (for good reason). There is no free market in gold as it is a strategic/politically sensitive metal. Governments and central banks have their fingers on the scales to influence the gold price where they can, so that markets do not treat gold as an alternative to currencies but just as a simple "commodity". This is why everyone's confused when the gold price increases when the dxy increases, because they've been programmed to believe (through constant futures markets manipulation) that the gold price sells off when the dollar gets stronger against other fiat currencies because "reasons". When you actually think about it, it's nonsense. In addition, even if you were thinking "well gold *is* a commodity as it is mined and many of the costs are in dollars (energy, etc)", consider that gold's stock to flow ratio is very high since flow is low and stock is high (most gold that is produced is stored in vaults not consumed) so any change in the strength of the dollar relative to other currencies may have some effect on the costs of mining gold, but since the stock to flow ratio is so high it would have little effect on the gold price. Even more evidence, here is a chart of the gold price (main area chart) overlayed with the DXY (in yellow): DXY has been increasing since May 21 but the gold price was increasing until Mar 22 and then dropped from $2000 to $1740 now (and the price fell off a cliff this month dropping from $1810 to $1740 in 4 days!!). Also note that the price of retail coins and bars have not changed materially in this time... So in conclusion, the gold price is heavily manipulated with extreme leverage in futures markets, and there is little price discovery information available for the physical market given that it is an extremely strategically/politically sensitive and opaque market. As I've said before, the futures market is underpricing gold (deliberately) and as a result will continue to diverge from the physical market over time. Edited July 8, 2022 by nero120 reasons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 On 7/7/2022 at 10:47 AM, nero120 said: Commodity prices are currently set in western futures markets where leverage and speculation can make prices swing wildly, my guess is that increasingly eastern markets (Russia, China, UAE, etc) will fix prices to physical commodities and these prices will diverge from western paper markets. As they do, arbitrage will cause commodities to be bought in the west and sold in the east until no one can actually buy those commodities in the west (even though western markets will continue to trade paper and publish prices). I think you could be on to something here. China as the rival power, must be working to drag whatever it can away from the US. I mean China has a physical spot price buttttt is the gold actually there? Their numbers/data/figures from the CCP has always been... 'erroneous'. (im citing a few things but mainly the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI's) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Data Dave said: I think you could be on to something here. China as the rival power, must be working to drag whatever it can away from the US. I mean China has a physical spot price buttttt is the gold actually there? Their numbers/data/figures from the CCP has always been... 'erroneous'. (im citing a few things but mainly the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI's) https://www.statista.com/statistics/264628/world-mine-production-of-gold/ Positions 1 and 3: China and Russia, and neither country exports any gold. I would say these nations, if anything, have more gold than they're letting on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 https://goldswitzerland.com/paper-gold-price-manipulation-rigged-to-fail/ Now there's a chart... Seems totally legit!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnick Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, nero120 said: https://goldswitzerland.com/paper-gold-price-manipulation-rigged-to-fail/ Now there's a chart... Seems totally legit!!! Thanks for that........wonder it could just be possible that other communities could also be excluded from true price discovery....... and btc??......or food??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 6 hours ago, cnick said: Thanks for that........wonder it could just be possible that other communities could also be excluded from true price discovery....... and btc??......or food??? At this point I'd say there is no true price discovery for anything since the yardstick (i.e. currencies) is being manipulated so heavily. If you then add specific futures market manipulation (such as the above) then you are so far away from what the true price should be that it's just unreal. When you think about it it's just crazy, why in the world would an opaque market (such as the lbma) or one where no actual physical metal is moved in or out be allowed to set the price of the physical commodity?! I think we know the reason... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 @nero120 https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/ Written by (the) Peter Hambro this month. There is a paywall but also a short/med snippet to wet the appetite... Darn paywalls. "Gentle folk: look at this chart and then go see your bullion trading counterparty and buy some gold. Then ask for your gold or silver or platinum or palladium or any other physical store of value and medium of exchange that you have acquired to protect you from the ravages of inflation. For Inflation will surely engulf the world when the paper gold emperor’s clothes are seen for what they really are. " ...needs a thread of its own really IMO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, Data Dave said: @nero120 https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/ Written by (the) Peter Hambro this month. There is a paywall but also a short/med snippet to wet the appetite... Darn paywalls. "Gentle folk: look at this chart and then go see your bullion trading counterparty and buy some gold. Then ask for your gold or silver or platinum or palladium or any other physical store of value and medium of exchange that you have acquired to protect you from the ravages of inflation. For Inflation will surely engulf the world when the paper gold emperor’s clothes are seen for what they really are. " ...needs a thread of its own really IMO! Archive link (no paywall): https://archive.ph/3fBqK Yes Peter just dropped a financial thermonuclear bomb with that article!! I think we are getting to the point where the rats are starting to depart the sinking ship, so to speak. If that article isn't a call to the establishment to "run for your lives" I don't know what is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, nero120 said: Archive link (no paywall): https://archive.ph/3fBqK Thanks, but I wasnt able to view anyone more than I could before... "The trigger for Peter Hambro’s article is a recent chart from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which due to a data reclassification starting in Q1 2022, now shows the massive extent to which bullion banks such as JP Morgan have amassed precious metals derivatives contracts to hold down the gold price" Source Was it the trigger? Or is it because as others have alluded to, he now cant get his gold out of Russia. Why are JPMorgan trying to suppress the price? For the BIS? Hambro has a new company listed in Tornoto, so new infact he doesnt have a working website https://www.xauresources.com/ is this the reason hes now jumped ship, hes simply a dealer pushing physical bars...? As you say, this is an insider talking about LBMA, COMEX, BIS, Banks, rigging...😵 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Data Dave said: Why are JPMorgan trying to suppress the price? For the BIS? Ahhhh: "JPMorgan Chase is the last bank in the U.S. that should have a $330 billion involvement in precious metals. On September 29, 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice charged JPMorgan Chase with rigging the precious metals market and charged it with a criminal felony count, to which it admitted. According to the Justice Department, the rigging occurred for more than eight years, from March of 2008 to August of 2016, and involved “tens of thousands” of incidents. The Justice Department wrote that traders at JPMorgan Chase: “…knowingly and intentionally placed orders to buy and sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution (‘Deceptive PM [Precious Metals] Orders’), including in an attempt to profit by deceiving other market participants through false and fraudulent pretenses and representations concerning the existence of genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts. By placing Deceptive PM Orders, the Subject PM Traders intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts into the markets, and to deceive other participants in those markets into believing something untrue, namely that the visible order book accurately reflected market-based forces of supply and demand. This false and misleading information was intended to, and at times did, trick other market participants, including competitor financial institutions and proprietary traders, into reacting to the apparent change and imbalance in supply and demand by buying and selling precious metals futures contracts at quantities, prices, and times that they otherwise likely would not have traded.” The trading conduct in precious metals was so bad at JPMorgan Chase that the Justice Department took the unprecedented step of charging some of the precious metals traders involved under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), a statute typically reserved for organized crime figures. In this case, it was used to charge employees of the largest federally insured bank in the United States. Despite this criminal conduct, federal regulators apparently have no problem with JPMorgan Chase continuing to hold an outsized share of a market it rigged." Source Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 (edited) Not sure if this has been posted here before .. https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/ .. former Deputy Managing Director of Mocatta & Goldsmid admits manipulation of prices with 'paper' gold, Bank of England complicit in the scheme. Edited July 15, 2022 by Sour Mash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 On 7/15/2022 at 1:58 PM, Sour Mash said: Not sure if this has been posted here before .. https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/ .. former Deputy Managing Director of Mocatta & Goldsmid admits manipulation of prices with 'paper' gold, Bank of England complicit in the scheme. Great minds think alike! I had just posted above actually, its a pretty damning report by Hambro. He talks rigging at all levels and complicity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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