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Gold strategy in the current economy


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43 minutes ago, reddog said:

So the question for the week ahead is, will we break the all time high in US dollars?

If US$ continues to slump into FED, yes.  Then several week rally, while gold etc and stocks fall. Then. Then. Then. Oh boy. ?

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2018 could be the year for gold https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/popular/2141-2018-could-be-the-year-for-gold

Always my experience as well, so I second your recommendation.

It's entirely  dependant on what you are comfortable with. And obviously how much you would need on hand in the effect of something seriously drastic happening.

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4 minutes ago, Warlord said:

is it at all time high in  £? I notice the dollar is falling ... pound is 1.28

Have a look at the gold GBP chart. We have been making new all time highs for weeks and weeks in GBP 

the £ has lost a lot of value the last few years, gold been a brilliant investment for those paid and saving in £ 

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25 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Have a look at the gold GBP chart. We have been making new all time highs for weeks and weeks in GBP 

the £ has lost a lot of value the last few years, gold been a brilliant investment for those paid and saving in £ 

Not good for the UK economy though! 

Things are going to get very bleak in a few months.  Gold will of course do well and those who laughed at us will be laughing no more .

 

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12 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Not good for the UK economy though! 

Things are going to get very bleak in a few months.  Gold will of course do well and those who laughed at us will be laughing no more .

 

the £ was always going to be trashed, it’s a race to the bottom with fiat to keep the population employed and capturing as much work and trade available as possible, and to be fair it is working.

its also an easy way to cover the cost of pensions and prop up house prices, basically you keep deliberately under-stating inflation. 

gold is only just starting to show the real loss of the £’s value. 

inflation is the ‘go-to’ for the powers that be. 

we are getting more competitive as real wages fall through the floor. 

even houses are getting cheaper when looking on a world-wise scale. they are only value stores if your paid and earning in £ (Unless Central London property which is an asset class of its own) 

there is a lag with gold and shares, but the stimulus cheques in the US, the furlough scheme in the UK, the money printing has never it sooo obvious before. 

gold could be off on a massive massive run now the ATH is breached. and we have not even started our October second wave ‘wall of death’ yet 

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10 minutes ago, Warlord said:

The BoE will have to raise rates soon to defend the pound. That will be interesting. 

No they won’t. 

it not even the ugliest girl at the party, it’s only a two Pinter at the moment, all the girls need a wash nothing in that group singles out the pound in particular.

we won’t see rates go up until we are close to an absolute blow off top in the stock markets come 2029 just as the 2030’s dawn.

the whole corona virus thing is just what the markets needed a nice timely correction. 

Gold will remain the ultimate value store, but sadly it’s time scales can crush people on a human time scale, so it will probably do well this year and next then fall back or stagnate (real terms fall) until 2029, and which point it moons.

but that’s a cool decade away. 

no point in making a mint when your too old to benefit and have a bad knee and keep weeing yourself. 

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3 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

we won’t see rates go up until we are close to an absolute blow off top in the stock markets come 2029 just as the 2030’s dawn.

 

I think you're in for a surprise and so will many when it happens. 

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1 minute ago, Warlord said:

I think you're in for a surprise and so will many when it happens. 

It depends... under a fully functional bond market - rates will rise because the central bank doesn't control the long end of the yield curve, it can only influence it with short term rates... the market controls long term rates - not the central banks. That is... unless the central bank buy all of the bonds... which is happening, but this has always been considered monetising the debt. There has been talk recently about perpetual bonds, which as far as I understand it, means they never mature and so the principal is never repaid. I do wonder if this is a step towards MMT, which as all hard monetary historians know - leads to inflation. To coin Milton Friedman ~ "inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"

 

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49 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Will this blast through the 2K USD barrier by the end of the week ?

Well it went from $1901 to $1942 and earns itself a place in all the economic papers in a morning, so I would say, quite likely!

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Stay The Hell Away From Gold

Quote

 

The oft-quoted line from the Merchant of Venice is apt: “All that glisters is not gold.” But gold lately has been doing a lot of glittering. As the price per ounce soars to its all-time high, the question is whether this is a good thing to buy now. The answer: no.

Not at these prices, because the yellow metal is notoriously volatile. Unless you are a deft in-and-out commodities trader, which not many people are, or a long-term investor, which you should be, then gold is a problematical holding. Certainly in any large amount.

 

...

Quote

Unfortunately, gold’s volatility also renders it less useful as an inflation offset over time. Dating back to the 1970s, an era of genuinely bad inflation, gold’s price as a ratio to the Consumer Price Index oscillated  from a low of 1.47 to a high of 8.68, a study by Duke Professor Campbell Harvey and former TCW portfolio manager Claude Erb found. Upshot: Inflation adjusted, gold would need to be more than 50% higher than the present level to equal what it was back then.

The bold bit made me smile... Well maybe it will rise by 50% then!

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1 minute ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Notoriously volatile, AFAICT it went the best part of 25 years trading between 250 and 500 USD. If that is notoriously volatile go knows what they would say about btc.

It's comical... just the same as they talk the housing and stock markets up, they always talk gold down. We shouldn't expect anything different! I'm surprised we haven't seen any sell your "old rusty gold" shops pop up on the high street yet...

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7 hours ago, Warlord said:

Not good for the UK economy though! 

Things are going to get very bleak in a few months.  Gold will of course do well and those who laughed at us will be laughing no more .

 

As someone said years ago........'buy gold and pray it never goes up......'

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2 hours ago, LetsBuild said:

Well it went from $1901 to $1942 and earns itself a place in all the economic papers in a morning, so I would say, quite likely!

How many ounces would need to be bought to move the market this much.......... or more importantly ..... (?)   how many naked short positions would have to be sold?

?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/naked-gold-shorts-the-inside-story-of-gold-price-manipulation/5365360

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Silver up over $1.50 in just a day, crazy stuff. I should have been greedier and backed up the truck when the stuff was nearly half the price.

We've had a nice run, but my guess is that we are probably overbought and due a pullback. 

In the long-term, there's still plenty to go on this one. Gold and silver finally are attracting interest in the market and even with the recent price rises, we are still only in the first few innings of this. If the Robinhooder's start lumping on SLV, then we'll really get fireworks as the momentum players and algos start getting stuck in.

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17 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

Silver up over $1.50 in just a day, crazy stuff. I should have been greedier and backed up the truck when the stuff was nearly half the price.

We've had a nice run, but my guess is that we are probably overbought and due a pullback. 

In the long-term, there's still plenty to go on this one. Gold and silver finally are attracting interest in the market and even with the recent price rises, we are still only in the first few innings of this. If the Robinhooder's start lumping on SLV, then we'll really get fireworks as the momentum players and algos start getting stuck in.

Whilst the Robinhood situation is ridiculous (buying bankrupt company shares)... it's interesting how many young people are now into trading (at least trying to get rich quick!)... There's a young lad I worked with recently and he's only 24 and whilst I have been discussing monetary issues with him over the last couple of years, he was previously into CFD's... He gets it... and I got him into silver just at the bottom of this last correction... he has lots of friends who are also into trading... I think it's just a matter of time before the next generation understand the benefits of gold. It's happening IMO...

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11 minutes ago, warpig said:

I think it's just a matter of time before the next generation understand the benefits of gold. It's happening IMO...

Dream on.........

Gold barely registers. Have you seen it on the news? Brief mentions here and there....

When they do get interested i.e the mainstream perhaps then is the time to sell. .Look what they did to Bitcoin for example (lets not get into that here... just saying)

 

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3 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Dream on.........

Gold barely registers. Have you seen it on the news? Brief mentions here and there....

When they do get interested i.e the mainstream perhaps then is the time to sell. .Look what they did to Bitcoin for example (lets not get into that here... just saying)

 

No you're wrong... something's happened that got loads of kids into RobinHood... they're all trading badly, don't understand the risks or the instruments they're using and they have no experience... but loads of them are doing it. OK they got it wrong in terms of what to invest in and where the future profits are because they're inexperienced, but you can bet your last dollar they'll just copy a friend that gets it right. Think homework... The young lad I know is not the only person I know of or have heard of that's doing this... there are loads and that's just people I know or friends of people I know... I think the younger generation will get this quickly and you know how memes travel between kids because they're all interconnected on social media - they don't watch the news... The last generation to get into this will be generations older than us. They're too indoctrinated with "expert" advice. Mark my words!

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50 minutes ago, cnick said:

How many ounces would need to be bought to move the market this much.......... or more importantly ..... (?)   how many naked short positions would have to be sold?

?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/naked-gold-shorts-the-inside-story-of-gold-price-manipulation/5365360

Honestly no idea. I know the market for the physical has next to no impact on the paper market as of yet. I think there could be a short squeeze in motion on SLV.

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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