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Gold strategy in the current economy


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2018 could be the year for gold https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/popular/2141-2018-could-be-the-year-for-gold

Always my experience as well, so I second your recommendation.

It's entirely  dependant on what you are comfortable with. And obviously how much you would need on hand in the effect of something seriously drastic happening.

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4 minutes ago, warpig said:

As a store of value... gold is as volatile as everything else... it's not a constant or even a good store of value, just look at any gold chart. Maybe if you average the price over hundreds of years... but that's beyond my investment horizon!

Yes but ALL countries are doing the same and because gold trades predominantly in dollars, the price of gold in dollars and subsequently the price of USD/GBP is key... there is a referential link. It's a race to the bottom for all currencies, especially as the next leg of this is expected to be a currency war and competitive devaluations.

Yep - I'd encourage people to look into gold mining shares $GDX or $GDXJ if you're feeling brave. Additionally silver miners will block your socks off when they go... Investing in just gold has it's limitations and further from this - investing in just physical has it's limitations. Both of course have benefits as well... but people should balance their investment portfolios in terms of risk and liquidity. 

 

I'm very bearish on GBP considering we have a £2 TRILLION national debt that can never be paid back. This will way heavy on our country for the foreseeable.  Yes I know the Americans are also f*cked with the dollar and the Fed printing like a mad man but I think the pound crisis will come sooner as the dollar is still seen as the reserve currency no matter how dumb that seems right now...

You can get an ounce of silver for a round of drinks but how many people will? No one I know is interested in owning PM's.  I wish they would and i spread the word as often as I can. 

I am not an investment adviser but if I were to enter the market I'd go with Schiff's advice and buy mining stocks and dividend paying international stocks that are neither in £ or $ so that leaves Australia, Canada and the emerging markets. Its risky though and you need to know of an investment manager who knows what they're doing.  There are funds out there that cater for this kind of strategy.

 

 

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The dollar will be the last currency to fall because it's the reserve currency and it's the monetary conduit to all others. It rises because of scarcity, not just because of the strength of the US economy. It's paradoxical. Brexit will likely strengthen the pound as the Euro disintegrates... Leaving the EU was a stroke of genius.

Don't worry about others... we all tried this in 2008, it falls on deaf ears. They'll be interested near the peak... that's herd mentality for you. When the mania phase really gets going, that's the time to think about selling.

I'd say DYOR in terms of ETFs or shares... don't be at the mercy of someone else's poor decisions.

 

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5 minutes ago, warpig said:

The dollar will be the last currency to fall because it's the reserve currency and it's the monetary conduit to all others. It rises because of scarcity, not because of just the strength in the US economy. It's paradoxical. Brexit will likely strengthen the pound as the Euro disintegrates... Leaving the EU was a stroke of genius.

Don't worry about others... we all tried this in 2008, it falls on deaf ears. They'll be interested near the peak... that's herd mentality for you. When the mania phase really gets going, that's the time to think about selling.

I'd say DYOR in terms of ETFs or shares... don't be at the mercy of someone else's poor decisions.

 

 

I think you need to get to know the fund managers and their track record because if you want to get out of the £ and out of the $ you definitely need someone specialises in international markets I simply don't have the knowledge or the time to  do it myself !

 

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Just now, warpig said:

Don't get out of the dollar... it's going to new all time highs before this is all over.

I disagree. My aim is to get out of the dollar and the pound. The debt levels and the money printing by both central banks are out of control and will damage the currencies. 

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5 minutes ago, Warlord said:

I disagree. My aim is to get out of the dollar and the pound. The debt levels and the money printing by both central banks are out of control and will damage the currencies. 

It's the reserve currency!!!! What's to disagree with? They export their inflation around the world... Don't compare GBP and USD in terms of their function, USD has a dual function.

USD will fall - but not yet! It still has another 3-5-8 years... before it loses it's reserve status. As I said Schiff is fundamentally right, but wrong on timing. Don't listen to his time scales...

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2 minutes ago, warpig said:

So maybe that puts the all time "future" high in GBP around £3,500/oz. Doesn't sound too unreasonable. 

if that happens i'll very happy.  Long way to go though.

Warrior88: Don't sell! House prices are about to collapse and gold may double over the next 18 months. The perfect storm.

 

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5 minutes ago, warpig said:

For me I'm most interested in the house price/gold ratio, I care less about the overall Sterling price and would like to capitalise on low IR's before the Gilt market implodes, so I may get out early.

Are you in a rush to buy? Give it 12-18 months IMO.  

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I'll give it at least that... I'm expecting a housing crash that will eclipse anything before it... but... as I say I want to capitalise on low IR's if I can, so finding that sweet spot might mean I buy whilst house prices are still falling... but I will wait until they're significantly lower than now.

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1 minute ago, warpig said:

I'll give it at least that... I'm expecting a housing crash that will eclipse anything before it... but... as I say I want to capitalise on low IR's if I can, so finding that sweet spot might mean I buy whilst house prices are still falling... but I will wait until they're significantly lower than now.

Yeah give it some time. If you've waited this long then a few more months won't hurt... I'm still buying bullion when I can afford it even at these highs. I'm not too bothered as i'm in it for the longer term.

 

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So since I first bought gold in 2008, house prices when measured in gold dropped from 405 oz / house to 166 oz / house. Impressive. A drop to 33 oz / house is super impressive! A drop of nearly 88%.

2005 - £226/oz     £155,000/house = 686 oz / house
2008 - £445/oz    £180,500/house = 405 oz / house

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12 minutes ago, warpig said:

So since I first bought gold in 2008, house prices when measured in gold dropped from 405 oz / house to 166 oz / house. Impressive. A drop to 33 oz / house is super impressive! A drop of nearly 88%.

2005 - £226/oz     £155,000/house = 686 oz / house
2008 - £445/oz    £180,500/house = 405 oz / house

is the low on the chart 33oz' from the 80's ?

If so that's very interesting.   You should plan it carefully .

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Times were different in 1980... we just came off the gold standard 9 years before and the exponential bubble of everything was just starting... The exponential bubble of everything is now coming to a close and so I think it may well overshoot on the way down. 33-53oz sounds reasonable to me... :)

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