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Gold strategy in the current economy

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On 20/06/2019 at 16:10, DiggerUK said:

Although the talking heads are making noises, none of them are on target.

The geopolitical areas of concern are the same old, same old. US/Iran contretemps are a lot of noise and are nothing more than headlines for the hack pack. So no change  there, certainly no reason to get buyers scuttling off to the gold shop.

 

The oil  price has picked up, but is way down on 12 months ago. Again, this is no reason to rush off buying gold.

 

The worlds bourses are not crashing and burning either, they are still healthy when looked at over the last 12 months.  So, no urgency to buy gold and put investment portfolios in a defensive position.

 

'Safe haven government bonds' haven't  provided spectacular returns since I can't remember when and is the norm, so no panic selling of bonds to get into gold.

The NY Fed has hinted it will ease interest rates, and it is hard to find any enthusiasm to raise rates elsewhere. So just why has the gold price got here, and stayed here since last xmas?

 

All in all, it just seems normal, except for the gold price.

Smells like trouble..._

I believe there is a realisation that stocks are overvalued and that the US is now in massive debt -it owes $22Trn and Trump is adding to that at a rate of $1Trn a year.

I think some of the death of the Dollar books from 2008 were right, just a bit early.

If China dumps treasuries, Gold could hit $10,000 /Oz

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51 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I believe there is a realisation that stocks are overvalued and that the US is now in massive debt -it owes $22Trn and Trump is adding to that at a rate of $1Trn a year.

I think some of the death of the Dollar books from 2008 were right, just a bit early.

If China dumps treasuries, Gold could hit $10,000 /Oz

There is still time to buy physical Gold!

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£GBP still gets you $USD 1.25.

Price of gold up again, kissing £1150.

NY Fed meets in less than two weeks now, we will see if they have been strong armed by Trump to reduce interest rates in US.......or are they going to exert their independence!

Oh, and the budget deficit in the US needs to be rolled up again. Good here, innit..._

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Silver is the one no-one is talking about, gold/silver ratio is the highest it's been in a long time

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16 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Silver is the one no-one is talking about, gold/silver ratio is the highest it's been in a long time

BullionVault 18/07/2019: Gold Gains But Silver Price Leaps

Quote

Despite finding three-fifths of its annual demand from industrial uses however, silver today hit 5-month price highs above $16.10 per ounce, jumping 5.9% for the week so far.

That slashed the Gold/Silver Ratio of the two metals' relative pricing down to barely 88.1 – the lowest in nearly 2 months and sharply below this summer's 26-year highs above 93.

...

Historically the Gold/Silver Ratio has averaged 56 over the last 50 years.

Bloomberg: The Gold Rush Heats Up as Sub-Zero Yields Spread

Quote

But is the rally getting stretched?  Maybe not.  While hedge funds increased bullish bets on the precious metal, the aggregate long position on futures as a share of open interest is only about 36%.  That’s still below the peaks of 2011, 2016 and 2017, suggesting there’s some room for prices to rise as money managers may allocate more to bullion.  And while holdings in exchange-traded funds have risen this year, the total amount of bullion in funds still isn’t as high as it was at the end of 2012.

After the big rise in gold, maybe some of those money managers are beginning to put money in silver.

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9 hours ago, chronyx said:

Silver is the one no-one is talking about, gold/silver ratio is the highest it's been in a long time

Yup

Seriously considering another couple of 500 monster boxes of Britannias here.

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46 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Yup

Seriously considering another couple of 500 monster boxes of Britannias here.

What's your overall plan, sell once they reach a certain value, or are they for insurance purposes/SHTF?

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On 28/05/2019 at 16:50, Errol said:

The 2019 In Gold We Trust report is now available:

Another bump for this. I can't emphasise enough how good this report is - it's the highlight of the gold analysis year. It's completely free to download and 300 pages long, packed with charts, analysis and interviews. Anyone with interest in gold or buying gold should be taking a look.

Edited by Errol

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Errol, I'm sure it is a detailed and informative piece. As I can't sign out of them tracking my behaviour with cookies unless I jump through countless procedures, I'll pass. An alternative to your link is The World Gold Council.   https://www.gold.org/

On the other hand, your not attempting to troll trash the thread as in days gone bye, as some seem happy too..._

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/208794-probably-the-best-silver-thread-ever/

Edited by DiggerUK

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Gold is £1166.66/t.oz the highest it's ever been in 20+ years and no one's really talking about it... odd. Is it that people don't believe what they're seeing? The last 8 years has been a very loooonnngggg wait, but it's paying off now.

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14 minutes ago, warpig said:

Gold is £1166.66/t.oz the highest it's ever been in 20+ years and no one's really talking about it... odd. Is it that people don't believe what they're seeing? The last 8 years has been a very loooonnngggg wait, but it's paying off now.

It doesn't seem real! That and thinking "have i got enough yet?"

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I guess once bitten, twice shy. If I was new to this I'd be investing in the miners... There's huge gains ahead, but I concede the breakout needs a retest first. I saw the rising dollar coming, but held on to my gold based on Sterling weakness. I figured it would be difficult to lose and here we are at all time highs in GBP. We're just about to flick over into the next business cycle early next year, I don't see any reason not to invest in PM's after the retest. Shit's just going to get shitter...

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Interestingly gold is at record highs in GBP, JPY, CAD and AUD, but no one's really talking about... That just leaves CHF, EUR and USD lagging behind, but it's rising in ALL currencies. 

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7 hours ago, warpig said:

Interestingly gold is at record highs in GBP, JPY, CAD and AUD, but no one's really talking about... That just leaves CHF, EUR and USD lagging behind, but it's rising in ALL currencies. 

I thought record gold price in GBP was £1178? Not quite there - but soon 😀

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11 hours ago, warpig said:

Gold is £1166.66/t.oz the highest it's ever been in 20+ years and no one's really talking about it... odd. Is it that people don't believe what they're seeing? The last 8 years has been a very loooonnngggg wait, but it's paying off now.

I'm just hoping that if we all ignore it the price will go down. Then I can buy some more.

We've already had all time highs in some currencies - Canada, for instance.

Edited by Errol

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I'm still sure the biggest force on the price of gold at the moment is the fx rates. As the USD strengthens, and the pound weakens against it, the prices just keep on creeping up in sterling.  As others have noted it is the same for most other currencies, Aus$ being the prime example. Prices in $USD have not been falling either.

Anyway, tomorrow is NY Fed rate setting. If the 'independent' fed leaves rates alone or raises them we can easily see gold beat its all time sterling high. Or maybe Trump has found a way to strong arm the fed to lower rates, then the likes of Digger Mansions, who are in the selling portion of our lives, can sulk..._

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21 hours ago, Errol said:

I'm just hoping that if we all ignore it the price will go down. Then I can buy some more.

We've already had all time highs in some currencies - Canada, for instance.

I've been buying monthly since september.

It may go down but it may not. I think the likelyhood is that the lowest it will go down to would be £1100 and i think it will go up again after that.

I'm hoping for the 5x-10x gains long term so I don't mind an extra £50 price to entry.

No one can predict when the takeoff will be.

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Some articles you might all be interested in - from the July edition of 'Alchemist' (the LBMA magazine):

- Gordon Brown's Bottom, 20 Years onhttp://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_94/Alch94Ash.pdf

- Is Gold the Ultimate Recession Hedge?http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_94/Alch94Stoeferle.pdf 

Edited by Errol

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The Fed drops the interest rates and....? Gold being down about $25 or £10 is not an unusual price move.

I expected down with IR drop of .25%, but this isn't one thing nor the other. Not even noises about 'markets having already priced it in' are being offered up as an explanation, just business as normal. So when the usual and meaningless talking head spin isn't even offered up as a way of saying "I do know that I don't know what the hell is going on" I reach for my pistol.

 

Looks like we will have to wait to find out who's coming to dinner..._

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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