Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Lepista

Gold strategy in the current economy

Recommended Posts

On 31/05/2019 at 20:22, Erewhon said:

Over seven years after someone recorded gold price predictions, I wonder if any "analyst" was actually close to being accurate........

Seem  you can hang on to your cigars, looks like another rollover..._

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick question -

I'm buying Gold Britannia 1oz's at 5% over spot from Bullion By Post.

Is there a cheaper way to buy them safely?

also Silver is 19% over spot for a 2nd hand (no vat) bar - is there a cheaper way to buy that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although the talking heads are making noises, none of them are on target.

The geopolitical areas of concern are the same old, same old. US/Iran contretemps are a lot of noise and are nothing more than headlines for the hack pack. So no change  there, certainly no reason to get buyers scuttling off to the gold shop.

 

The oil  price has picked up, but is way down on 12 months ago. Again, this is no reason to rush off buying gold.

 

The worlds bourses are not crashing and burning either, they are still healthy when looked at over the last 12 months.  So, no urgency to buy gold and put investment portfolios in a defensive position.

 

'Safe haven government bonds' haven't  provided spectacular returns since I can't remember when and is the norm, so no panic selling of bonds to get into gold.

The NY Fed has hinted it will ease interest rates, and it is hard to find any enthusiasm to raise rates elsewhere. So just why has the gold price got here, and stayed here since last xmas?

 

All in all, it just seems normal, except for the gold price.

Smells like trouble..._

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mind you, it could just be down to the fx rates. 

Five years ago sterling got $USD 1.70, a year ago it was buying $USD1.30, and today It gets you $USD1.25.

So getting close to £1090 an ounce isn't such a big deal.....unless you are in the UK..._ 🥂

Edited by DiggerUK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russia, China, India et al, continue to buy gold hand over fist. Heading towards use of gold in international trade notes at some point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China and Russia buy all domestic mined gold. Smart move when you think about it, all they need to do is print the payment. Their ratio of gold in fx reserves is under 3% in China, and about 17% in Russia. As it is easier for China to obtain USD trading with the US than it is for Russia, I suspect that explains the different ratios.

As the gold doesn't go to the world market it suppresses supply, and as they don't appear to buy much on the world market it wont raise the demand side much. The only deliberate mistake  in that argument is China encourages it's citizens to hold gold, which does come from the rest of the world.

Will be interesting to see the next announcement on China's official gold reserves..._

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The all time high measured in sterling is ‎£1,178.93, the current price is £1,052.01.

 

My question is, do you think it will top the sterling all time high on the current run up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As US base rates are 2.0%, and UK  rates are 0.75%, it's possible it may top the 2011 high. It could be that the US problems may need more than a drop in base rates to get  sorted. 

But as Trump has an election to win in 2020, he will be pulling out all the stops to boom the economy. One way for him to work the oracle is to get rates down and somehow sugar rush the economy.

Lets see how the 'independent' NY Fed handles some Trump strong arming..._

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Freki said:

www.gold.co.uk has a spread of 5% between buying and selling

*5% is too high. Atkinsons and Elm Investments are much better. 

I have used both..._

* Edit. Sorry, if you mean total spread then that's about par...

Edited by DiggerUK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone care to speculate as to why gold has suddenly started rocketing in price?

I'm sure HPC can do better than my simple gut feeling that "people are starting to get worried"..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

Anyone care to speculate as to why gold has suddenly started rocketing in price?

I'm sure HPC can do better than my simple gut feeling that "people are starting to get worried"..

Looks like US interest rates will be going down, and maybe QE starting again if there is a sniff of a recession?

 

Also a possible Chinese currency devaluation?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, reddog said:

..........maybe QE starting again if there is a sniff of a recession? Also a possible Chinese currency devaluation?

Simple truth is, that however bizarre QE may seem to us deplorables, it is a damned effective way of kicking the can.

China may devalue, it is a privilege that is still  under their control, US will have plenty to say on the subject mind you. Something we should keep our eye on..._

 

Edit.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-yuan-pboc/chinas-central-bank-wont-let-yuan-weaken-past-7-to-the-dollar-sources-idUSKCN1SN0NT

 

Edited by DiggerUK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Roman Roady said:

Its a new paradigm and its different this time!

Do you mean that somebody  at the Fed FOMC meeting in three weeks will say "I can see a problem here that we must deal with before it gets out of hand"

Neat idea, I love it; no more boom or bust..._

Edit, POG @  £1135 an ounce. £GBP gets you $USD 1.25

Edited by DiggerUK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.