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Gold strategy in the current economy


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

Strong dollar. Gold up. What happens when/if USD begins to decline?

IMO when gold rises on top of a dollar rise, it implies a movement towards both liquidity and quality. A flight to 'money', if you will. It's quite telling when the demand for the dollar rises AND the demand for gold in dollars rises. Perhaps when the dollar falls, gold will fall too because of this dynamic. Don't bet on it tho!

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HOLA443

The Financial Times had an article that grabbed my attention recently headlined "The London Fix: making a golden molehill out of a mountain" It put forward the suggestion that a move away from unallocated gold holdings, and into allocated, was putting a squeeze on unallocated gold for lease.

Now some research by Koos Jansen shows that allocated gold holdings of some central banks is being more clearly identified, with less in unallocated.

OK, it's only a small reduction, but how does it compare historically?

It is obvious that demand is holding golds price up, but were exactly is the heightened demand coming from. I will email my former boss Greenspan and get back to you with what he says.

..._

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HOLA444
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HOLA445
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HOLA446

If - big if - $ in st top here (fwiw does appear so to me) it will likely boost PMs. And other commodities.

Couple of daily closes above 1210 and targets 1280/1300.

Pretty sensational from 1130 just the other week.

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HOLA447
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HOLA449
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HOLA4410

I repeat when the markets fall out of love with large cap equs they will look at what is cheap. PMs are amongst that crowd.

$ rose end 2008 to mid 2010 while PMs soared. Gold is not just another commodity. Silver may be but when it all hits the fan again S will have more wealth preservation fundamentals than usage in photography etc

$ could easily be st topping here but lt it's still in bull since mid 2011. Deflationary, no doubt. But...

After 80% collapse in GDXJ, for example, and the index is at levels of 2008 when Gold was $400 lower...one word: perspective!

Yes, $1000 gold is still on the cards, after this rally. But if the sector breaks up above clear resistances sustainably then put your sunglasses on.

As ever we don't know what will happen. We do know prices are low.

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HOLA4411
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HOLA4412
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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416

Draghi just spoke and said he do....nothing.

Dollar has been topping for a while and € bottoming. I'd suggest from today $ falls for a while. Gold broken above falling trend line. 2020 today/tomorrow. 1280/1300 by month/year end.

GDX/J 20-30% this month I would imagine.

Then we have huge resistance.

More likely still in multi year bear but... qui sais?

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HOLA4417

LOL! This is too funny ...

Draghi: We Have Nothing To Fear But Gold-Buying Itself

ECB head Mario Draghi made it clear where the real battle is taking place in the world this morning. When asked what form QE would take, his response was to the point... "On what sorts of assets should be included in QE... we discussed all assets BUT gold"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/draghi-we-have-nothing-fear-gold-buying-itself

So to summarize, the ECB will willingly take on Greek bank CDOs, Italian 3rd lien espresso shop loans, Spanish condo HELOCs, and Portuguese Used-Car ABS... but not - never - gold.

Edited by Errol
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HOLA4418
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HOLA4420

It's that time of the week again, when we have chance to review the euro soap opera, to see if they are still dancing around their handbags. Well the music hasn't stopped, but now they seem to be having a good old fashioned cat fight..

Seems they have moved on from deciding if they might not, or may not, buy any gold, to wanting to unfriend people on twitterbook.

Will be interesting to see how the 'non euro QE' will work out, and if it makes any difference to their fortunes, or any difference to the fortunes of countries that did QE.

Was always interesting to see that when the meltdown happened post 2007, it made not one jot of difference to countries like the UK who followed a regime of harsh labour laws, or euro land with it's more liberal labour laws. They both went down the pan.

If we get a great financial experiment enacted, so we can compare what QE does or does not achieve, could be interesting.

I wouldn't be surprised to find out not one jot of difference here either.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11275746/Draghis-authority-drains-away-as-half-ECB-board-joins-mutiny.html

..._

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HOLA4421

Gold regaining a bit of glint today...but don't look to gold......equities are having an absolute stinker...DAX down a percentage point, the FTSE 100 nearly 1.5%. If equities continue to struggle gold will back at $1250....FTSE 100 at 6500 and gold at $1250 would be about the crossover.

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HOLA4422

Gold regaining a bit of glint today...but don't look to gold......equities are having an absolute stinker...DAX down a percentage point, the FTSE 100 nearly 1.5%. If equities continue to struggle gold will back at $1250....FTSE 100 at 6500 and gold at $1250 would be about the crossover.

China down 5.5% overnight. Hong Kong down 2.5%

Could be another October buying opportunity this week for conventional stocks.

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HOLA4423

China down 5.5% overnight. Hong Kong down 2.5%

Could be another October buying opportunity this week for conventional stocks.

I reckon I will fill in my FTSE 100 tracker form tonight (just in case) to possibly FAX in for tomorrow's noon fix. Ok its a primitive way of doing it but I have no buy sell spread. Getting a reminder that my 4 year Nationwide fixed bond would only pay 2.1% pa kind of makes me feel reckless.

Anyway equities meltdown all good for gold.

Edited by crashmonitor
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HOLA4424
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HOLA4425

1210 is break of downtrend line. 1250 is break of horizontal resistance.

Miners had an down and up y'day - vg sign.

Surprising that they haven't done much much better given oil shock. Guess they were waiting for PMs.

The bottoming process has been looooong. All the better for sustainability.

Nothing certain yet but looking good for sizeable rally.

Look at bugs newsletters in November ($14 silver) - it was sell sell sell all over the place. Hello $1000 etc

What did they say in 2011, 2012 and early 2013???

Edited by Killer Bunny
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