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Lepista

Gold strategy in the current economy

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Golds price is ruled by economic developments, other factors might influence it's direction marginally.

All the major economic centres have their problems, but none of them have tipped over the edge. Europe has seen no panic with the stress test results, and it's not clear what effect the next ECB exercise with the Prudential Regulation Authority is going to have in mid December.

For those who are not up to speed, they are looking at how banks are to comply with the 'guidlines' from Basel 3.

May as well get on with making plans for christmas, nothing else exciting on the horizon.

...._

I agree I think we have had the usual autumn panic done with. Gold going to $1150 now, FTSE 100 to 6750....prices will go where the Markets decide they are heading and it's about second guessing the bets.

QE taper is the big thing that might scupper those numbers..but that really doesn't help gold either.

Could be totally wrong but at least I have declared my hand and put my head on the chopper.

Edited by crashmonitor

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........There will be a referendum in Switzerland on November 30th to the effect that the SNB must back 20% of the Franc in gold, and hold it's gold reserves in Switzerland. If the referendum were passed, then it would mean that the SNB would need to be buying a lot of gold.....

Best wait till the referendum is over and done with.

The amount of gold they will need to buy shouldn't alter the market too much anyways.

Not a lot to see here even if it is passed.

..._

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........QE taper is the big thing that might scupper those numbers..but that really doesn't help gold either......

When they expanded the money base with QE, I expected the debasement of the currency to lead to higher price inflation than we have experienced. Not exactly how it has panned out.

I don't view price deflation, or inflation, as anything other than two sides of the same debased coin either.

With the eurobanks unable to issue junk government bonds, as UK and USA can, it seems the buying of junk corporate bonds is their only option, and favoured by Draghi.

I can only come to the conclusion that most of the funny money has not hit the high street. Seems like we could be heading back to the good old days of easy money for the masters of the universe, and Joe and Jane public.

I don't know about the rest of you, but here at Digger Mansions we are starting to get inundated with all kinds of easy money offers, makes me feel all 'deja vous, a la 2007'...............and so close to Halloween!!!!!

..._

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When they expanded the money base with QE, I expected the debasement of the currency to lead to higher price inflation than we have experienced. Not exactly how it has panned out.

...

I can only come to the conclusion that most of the funny money has not hit the high street. Seems like we could be heading back to the good old days of easy money for the masters of the universe, and Joe and Jane public.

I don't know about the rest of you, but here at Digger Mansions we are starting to get inundated with all kinds of easy money offers, makes me feel all 'deja vous, a la 2007'...............and so close to Halloween!!!!!

..._

​This is the Fed's view of why there has been no inflation. The problem is, the fuel is now there if and when the Money Velocity turns around. At that point, the Fed would be selling bonds into an increasing interest-rate environment. They simply won't do it, IMO.

UBpfmRF.jpg

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Best wait till the referendum is over and done with.

The amount of gold they will need to buy shouldn't alter the market too much anyways.

Not a lot to see here even if it is passed.

..._

Really? After waiting over a year, Germany has only reported getting 5 tonnes back from the Fed, of a total of 1500 tonnes supposedly in the Vault? Something tells me that if Switzerland doesn't get its gold, the Fed will be caught pants down.

​Whereas I could not disagree more with you that the Euro bank stress tests are insignificant and very boring. Everybody knows by now they mean f-all. Dexia, Bankia and Unicredit came out near the top of the last one, ffs!

Germany Has Recovered A Paltry 5 Tons Of Gold From The NY Fed After One Year

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year

Edited by weaker

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Really? After waiting over a year, Germany has only reported getting 5 tonnes back from the Fed, of a total of 1500 tonnes supposedly in the Vault? Something tells me that if Switzerland doesn't get its gold, the Fed will be caught pants down.

​Whereas I could not disagree more with you that the Euro bank stress tests are insignificant and very boring. Everybody knows by now they mean f-all. Dexia, Bankia and Unicredit came out near the top of the last one, ffs!

Germany Has Recovered A Paltry 5 Tons Of Gold From The NY Fed After One Year

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year

The article states that Switzerland would need to buy 1700 tonnes in addition to repatriating all of it's foreign stored gold.

I am little more than a casual observer, but I would expect that to be significant, even over the 5 years they would have to buy it.

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This guy is going for a big Dent too...$700, he's got an ad on kitco. The price is heading where the participants in the Market think it is heading and does appear to be down.

http://research.economyandmarkets.com/X195Q645

Only if support breaks.

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The article states that Switzerland would need to buy 1700 tonnes in addition to repatriating all of it's foreign stored gold.

I am little more than a casual observer, but I would expect that to be significant, even over the 5 years they would have to buy it.

Sw buying loads will have as much effect as Indian snd Chinese buying...

Stop forecasting and follow the matket price and supports and resistances.

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After waiting over a year, Germany has only reported getting 5 tonnes back from the Fed, of a total of 1500 tonnes supposedly in the Vault? Something tells me that if Switzerland doesn't get its gold, the Fed will be caught pants down............

The Germans have not complained. Nothing publicly, and more importantly nothing leaked either.

The Swiss keep 70% of their gold reserves in Switzerland, 20% at the Bank of England, and 10% in the Bank of Canada. So how the Federal Reserve Bank in New York can be caught with it's pants down is a bit of a mystery to me.

..._

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The Germans have not complained. Nothing publicly, and more importantly nothing leaked either.

The Swiss keep 70% of their gold reserves in Switzerland, 20% at the Bank of England, and 10% in the Bank of Canada. So how the Federal Reserve Bank in New York can be caught with it's pants down is a bit of a mystery to me.

..._

The fed will be caught out because they need 295 tonnes for Germany, and the BoE will DEFINITELY be buying to pay back Switzerland. I don't know about Canada, but they may be buying too.

YOU FAILED TO MENTION that, on top of all this demand, the Swiss themselves will be buying too - they will need an extra 1500 tonnes!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/10/27/switzerland-gold-referendum-a-healthy-conversation-ron-paul/

A lot of the attention of the Swiss gold referendum has been focused on the need for the national bank to buy about 1,500 metric tons of gold to boost its gold reserves to 20% of its total foreign reserves

So, in one referendum, the Swiss will effectively call the bluff of nations who think they can supply leased gold from mined supply. Nice.

This is important also because there may well be several other countries following suit in the event of a Swiss repatriation vote.

Edited by weaker

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​This is the Fed's view of why there has been no inflation. The problem is, the fuel is now there if and when the Money Velocity turns around. At that point, the Fed would be selling bonds into an increasing interest-rate environment. They simply won't do it, IMO.

UBpfmRF.jpg

maybe the money velocity chart is about to turn up?

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/news/economy/~3/AD8Bo85mO_Q/story01.htm

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Around one in five banks across the euro zone expect companies to approach them for more credit as the year draws to a close, with those in Germany and France most optimistic,...

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The fed will be caught out because they need 295 tonnes for Germany.........

But the Federal Reserve in New York don't hold any Swiss gold, and there are no complaints about the speed of German repatriation.

If the Swiss repatriation vote is passed, how are the Fed going to be caught with their pants down. You clearly stated that they would not be able to get hold of 1500 tonnes of gold, what 1500 tonnes were you referring to.

If you can't research what you post, fine. Just don't pretend you didn't make such a gormless mistake.

..._

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But the Federal Reserve in New York don't hold any Swiss gold, and there are no complaints about the speed of German repatriation.

If the Swiss repatriation vote is passed, how are the Fed going to be caught with their pants down. You clearly stated that they would not be able to get hold of 1500 tonnes of gold, what 1500 tonnes were you referring to.

If you can't research what you post, fine. Just don't pretend you didn't make such a gormless mistake.

..._

THIS is my exact statement:

Really? After waiting over a year, Germany has only reported getting 5 tonnes back from the Fed, of a total of 1500 tonnes supposedly in the Vault? Something tells me that if Switzerland doesn't get its gold, the Fed will be caught pants down.

The 1500 tonnes is the TOTAL held by the Fed for Germany. Germany has said they want 300 tonnes of that 1500 back.

The Fed WILL be caught out, because they will need to supply 295 tonnes to Germany at the same time as Switzerlan is buying 1500 tonnes as per my post below:

YOU FAILED TO MENTION that, on top of all this demand, the Swiss themselves will be buying too - they will need an extra 1500 tonnes!

So, please don't accuse me of not reasearching - because you can't figure out which 1500 tonnes I am talking about,

and YOU somehow forgot to mention that the Swiss will need to buy that 1500 tonnes themselves, on top of any repatriation.

Referendum proposals:

1. The gold of the Swiss National Bank must be stored physically in Switzerland.

2. The Swiss National Bank does not have the right to sell its gold reserves.

3. The Swiss National Bank must hold at least 20% of its total assets in gold.

That's in addition to existing world demand and any other repatriations requested as a result of this by any other countries duped into storing gold at the Fed or BoE.

By the way, if we want to get pernickety - where are the sources for your assertion that 20% is in London and 10% is in Canada? Because the Swiss Finance minister would like to know:

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/this-little-piggy-bent-the-market

the SNB stores a certain proportion of its gold overseas. How much? We don’t know. Where exactly is it held? We have no idea (other than “in the UK & Canada”). In fact, when the finance minister was asked, in parliament, where Switzerland’s gold was stored, his answer was something of a head scratcher:

Where this gold exactly is stored, I cannot say, because I do not know, because I do not need to know.

Perhaps you can quote me your source, lest I accuse you of needing to do more research?

Edited by weaker

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.........The Fed WILL be caught out, because they will need to supply 295 tonnes to Germany at the same time as Switzerland is buying 1500 tonnes as per my post below:.........

By the way, if we want to get pernickety - where are the sources for your assertion that 20% is in London and 10% is in Canada? Because the Swiss Finance minister would like to know:.......

Perhaps you can quote me your source, lest I accuse you of needing to do more research?

The fed will not be caught out. Let me be the first to inform you that the Bundesbank dropped their plans to repatriate some time back. Boy, are you on the ball. Even zerobrainers reported the story. https://www.google.co.uk/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=5M9QVPvxIuPH8gfbv4KQCg&gws_rd=ssl#q=german+gold+stays+in+new+york

As to the Swiss gold abroad, the Daily Mail got there before you as well. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2316322/Swiss-pot-gold-UK-Country-20-reserves-Bank-England-case-invaded.html

If that doesn't embarrass you in to doing some research.....try here. http://www.bing.com/search?q=canada+central+bank+swiss+gold+storage&go=Submit&qs=n&form=QBRE&pq=canada+central+bank+swiss+gold+storage&sc=0-20&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=fc785e16d1464a26a92c0dd882a856a7

You could go to the World Gold Councils site as well.

..._

Edited by DiggerUK

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The fed will not be caught out. Let me be the first to inform you that the Bundesbank dropped their plans to repatriate some time back. Boy, are you on the ball. Even zerobrainers reported the story. https://www.google.co.uk/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=5M9QVPvxIuPH8gfbv4KQCg&gws_rd=ssl#q=german+gold+stays+in+new+york

As to the Swiss gold abroad, the Daily Mail got there before you as well. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2316322/Swiss-pot-gold-UK-Country-20-reserves-Bank-England-case-invaded.html

If that doesn't embarrass you in to doing some research.....try here. http://www.bing.com/search?q=canada+central+bank+swiss+gold+storage&go=Submit&qs=n&form=QBRE&pq=canada+central+bank+swiss+gold+storage&sc=0-20&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=fc785e16d1464a26a92c0dd882a856a7

You could go to the World Gold Councils site as well.

..._

Yes, dropping that request is something which makes you go hmmmm, no??? Probably was a matter of international relations.

Thank you for pointing it out, though. Thank you also for the DM source on the Swiss percentages, which I didn't know about (although I did know it was supposedly the UK and Canada).

riight anyway..... and the German gold repatriation people are going to sit there whilst Switzerland takes its gold home? As I said, it's more about the knock-on of a Swiss 'yes'. The Fed will need to buy at least 295 tonnes (and maybe the entire 1500 tonne German cache!).

That should be quite interesting, whils the SWISS ARE BUYING ANOTHER 1500 tonnes to make up their reserves to the required 20%.

Edited by weaker

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...... The Fed will need to buy at least 295 tonnes (and maybe the entire 1500 tonne German cache!)

Why,,,,? the Germans have dropped all repatriation plans. Please pay attention.

..._

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Why,,,,? the Germans have dropped all repatriation plans. Please pay attention.

..._

​erm....just because Bloomberg says it ain't so, don't mean squat!

http://rt.com/op-edge/170948-germany-gold-us-sovereignty/

In one of its recent reports Bloomberg claimed that Germany decided not to repatriate its gold reserves from the US, instead the Bundesbank issued an official statement that underscores it’s "trust" in its American partners. According to Bloomberg, Germany gave up after repatriating just 5 tons of gold

​...

This was a report from Bloomberg and it was a wrong report. It did not reflect the truth. It is very interesting that Bloomberg is publishing such a thing. Bloomberg got this thing deliberately wrong to con the German public.

​and..

Head Of German Gold Repatriation Initiative Responds To Bloomberg Story About Repatriation Halt

Summary: a "non-news" article with a wrong headline, strange interviewees, old news, and with a clearly apologetic ideological approach: the main purpose seems to be NOT to give space to the myriad of unanswered and extremely relevant questions BuBa and the Fed have been refusing to answer for decades.

​But in any case, I already answered...

riight anyway..... and the German gold repatriation people are going to sit there whilst Switzerland takes its gold home? As I said, it's more about the knock-on of a Swiss 'yes'. The Fed will need to buy at least 295 tonnes (and maybe the entire 1500 tonne German cache!).

That should be quite interesting, whils the SWISS ARE BUYING ANOTHER 1500 tonnes to make up their reserves to the required 20%.

​So, the Bank of Canada, BoE and Fed have 295 German tonnes (possibly up to 1495 German tonnes), the Swiss 30% (about 350 tonnes) to find..

All whilst Switzerland is looknig for another 1500 tonnes (over 5 years) IF there's a yes vote.

Edited by weaker

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This is more interesting than the headlines. It's readable, especially between the lines.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141029a.htm

Nothing is ruled in or out for the future, it's an excellent example of how to cover all eventualities. Sir Humphrey Appleby at his best!

They will have to expand the money base further at some point, I don't think they will call it QE again, that would be too brave by half.

It seems ZIRP central bank rates without money expansion of some sort, is like a kiss without a squeeze. Yellen, Draghi, Osborne and the Bundesbank must realise that.......now they are all dancing round their handbags together, nobody dares blink first, and they can't blink separately.

The cold war scenario of mutually assured destruction has taken on a new meaning. If they act together they could keep the new boom going, and suppress the price of gold for a while longer. :lol:

..._

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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