Gigantic Purple Slug Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, warpig said: Let's not make this the Peter Schiff thread, think it's time this thread was brought back on topic. I wonder whether gold has now topped... I'm calling it. I am no good at calling stuff like this, but my gut says it is close to peaking. I will be waiting for a few hundred dollars pullback before getting any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: I am no good at calling stuff like this, but my gut says it is close to peaking. I will be waiting for a few hundred dollars pullback before getting any more. You could invest in gold miners if your comfortable with owning shares Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: I am no good at calling stuff like this, but my gut says it is close to peaking. I will be waiting for a few hundred dollars pullback before getting any more. 1900 ish then, if you’re lucky, 1650-1750. Not going to be any bigger than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 40 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: I am no good at calling stuff like this, but my gut says it is close to peaking. I will be waiting for a few hundred dollars pullback before getting any more. It's just a guess... but it felt like gold was starting to run out of steam. I'm wondering now the EU's €1.82 trillion Covid19 recovery deal is priced in whether that's it for now... either way and as you say... it doesn't have long before it pulls back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 If you look at the 2007 crash, it went from around 350 to 1100 at the peak, then dropped back to around 750 before another leg up to around 1000 in 2016 in GBP. The leg up in 2016 was due to the pound dropping in Brexit IIRC. If you assume this leg has the same format as the 2008 crash, then it should top out at around 4x the start price (1000) in about 3 years from now with possible dips in the region of 10-15% or so along the way. However previous performance is no guarantee of future performance, and my guess is that if thinks like a no deal Brexit happens it will add 10% pretty much overnight. Similarly some sort of major covid development could send it one way or another. So to summarise, I don't have a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Killer Bunny said: 1900 ish then, if you’re lucky, 1650-1750. Not going to be any bigger than that. I've stopped buying for now because I'm worried that its too expensive but it shows no signs of stopping yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: If you look at the 2007 crash, it went from around 350 to 1100 at the peak, then dropped back to around 750 before another leg up to around 1000 in 2016 in GBP. The leg up in 2016 was due to the pound dropping in Brexit IIRC. If you assume this leg has the same format as the 2008 crash, then it should top out at around 4x the start price (1000) in about 3 years from now with possible dips in the region of 10-15% or so along the way. So to summarise, I don't have a clue. This is not 2008. This is 2005 ish £ didn’t fall due to Brexit. ? And, yes. Edited July 23, 2020 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 6 hours ago, warpig said: I wonder whether gold has now topped... I'm calling it. Define "topped" If you mean that this leg up might run out of steam, then you could be right. Maybe if it breaks the all time dollar high, it can go on, but if it treads water for a while it might go back to $17** for a bit. But if you are looking out 3 to 5 years from now I think it still has a long way to go. I don't want to make extreme predictions, but on a 5-10 year time frame $5k does not seem unrealistically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, reddog said: Define "topped" If you mean that this leg up might run out of steam, then you could be right. Maybe if it breaks the all time dollar high, it can go on, but if it treads water for a while it might go back to $17** for a bit. But if you are looking out 3 to 5 years from now I think it still has a long way to go. I don't want to make extreme predictions, but on a 5-10 year time frame $5k does not seem unrealistically. I only mean an interim top where long term resistance is met temporarily, before turning to support. I still believe a cup and handle chart formation is appearing and the net result will be a much higher price of gold in the near future, but not just yet. Once the handle forms it will go through IMO. Having said that - it's possible it doesn't pullback for some time... there is so much happening to propel gold ever higher, that I wouldn't be surprised. I would say the odds are in favour of a pullback and a sizeable one too. I've always said $5k is a given, I'm now starting to think $7k or perhaps even $10k is possible. Gold's only just getting going... Edited July 23, 2020 by warpig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 6 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: If you look at the 2007 crash, it went from around 350 to 1100 at the peak, then dropped back to around 750 before another leg up to around 1000 in 2016 in GBP. The leg up in 2016 was due to the pound dropping in Brexit IIRC. If you assume this leg has the same format as the 2008 crash, then it should top out at around 4x the start price (1000) in about 3 years from now with possible dips in the region of 10-15% or so along the way. However previous performance is no guarantee of future performance, and my guess is that if thinks like a no deal Brexit happens it will add 10% pretty much overnight. Similarly some sort of major covid development could send it one way or another. So to summarise, I don't have a clue. That would give around $5,500 by late 2023, which might be possible. I'm thinking around 2025, but your opinion is as valid as mine. If it's any consolation - neither do the government or the BOE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Stating the obvious, but a lot of the current action is due to dollar weakness. Will be interesting to see if we crack $1900 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Some of today's eventshttps://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 FED meeting next week. Trigger for reversals all over the show, probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 1 hour ago, reddog said: Stating the obvious, but a lot of the current action is due to dollar weakness. Not obvious to us at all... If so why does the 30 day trend look so similar in 6 currencies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 new all time high breached yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Anyone buying or selling Gold at this point? I'm just hodling for now and enjoying the ride. I thought it was too pricey to buy again so I'm keeping my powder dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 No, holding. Looks like it has taken out 1900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirtyduck Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Wooohoo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Switch625 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 22 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: So to summarise, I don't have a clue. ??? you and me both Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 On 23/07/2020 at 14:09, warpig said: Let's not make this the Peter Schiff thread, think it's time this thread was brought back on topic. I wonder whether gold has now topped... I'm calling it. as I said before, as we are now approaching all time highs there is likely to be a massive wall of resistance around $1930-1950. I'm not expecting it to break first time around. spot spice will probably correct from there back down to $1750 or so. Miners I think will still be quite robust..looks like they will be coming in considerably ahead of estimates . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 2 hours ago, jiltedjen said: new all time high breached yet? very close in dollar terms, absolutely broken in GBP/CAD/AUD and EUR. Due a spot of profit taking IMHO, but it's still got momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 wouldn't surprise me if uncle sam reports some better than expected earnings this Q just to take the heat out of the market a bit,that would cause a bit of a flight into risk/stocks and keep the dow/s&p bubble well inflated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 edit...should have said ...not as bad as expected(it's merely a cluster**** instead of a catstrophe)...forward guidance uprated a tad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Warlord said: Anyone buying or selling Gold at this point? I'm just hodling for now and enjoying the ride. I thought it was too pricey to buy again so I'm keeping my powder dry. giving some serious thought to offloading a little bit,maybe about 25% or so of my holdings. i got in on that about $1300 an oz with the exchange rate at $1.75 is, so I've done about a 3 bagger on it...that basically pays for the ride from hereon in. I basically have return on investment(minus inflation)..I will put that to work in other areas...looking at an electric car soon,so maybe a powerwall might be a good investment ...the remainder will stay put for the moonshot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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