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Gold strategy in the current economy


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
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HOLA443
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HOLA444

There are, I know, at least a million and one opinions on gold prices available

I present one that I haven't seen before by Florian Grummes, www.goldnewsletter.de

Published 24 June 2014

http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=782363159fbc9257a5256cdde&id=15aec038be&e=850cd7cab5

the conclusion of which is

  • Last time my assumption was wrong. Shortly after publishing my analysis, Gold broke down from a triangle and fell 6 days in a row down to US$1,240.20 (Lesson learned: No matter what, every year before the june low we will see a sell off first!!).
  • After 2 days of bottom building Gold has strongly pushed higher since then.
  • But in my eyes the recent big up day on last thursday is a bull trap. There is still potential for the bulls to push prices higher either towards US$1,335.00 or even up to US$1,355.00-US$1,365.00 until end of this week.
  • First week in july, I think Gold will start correction down to 200-MA (US$1,289.16) and later maybe even lower to test the longterm trend-line on the logarithmic monthly chart one more time.
  • This should give us the final opportunity to buy Gold below US$1,300.00 (probably around US$1,270.00) in the first week of august. From there I expect a volatile but sustainable rally towards US$1,525.00 until november.
  • Swing traders could start sell Gold short between US$1,355.00 and US$1,365.00 with a first target at US$1,295.00.
  • Investors with a long-term perspective need to be patient now and should continue to accumulate physical Gold below US$1,300.00 and physical Silver below US$20,50.

Longterm:

  • Nothing has changed
  • Precious Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the final parabolic phase (could start in summer 2014 & last for 2-3 years or even longer)
  • Price target DowJones/Gold Ratio ca. 1:1
  • Price target Gold/Silver Ratio ca. 10:1
  • Fundamentally, Gold should soon start the final 3rd phase of this long term bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us news about institutions and central banks buying or repatriating gold. The evolving 3rd and finally parabolic stage will end in the distribution to small inexperienced new investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic.
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HOLA445
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HOLA446

The only lines on the above chart that mean anything, are the squigelly ones on the left.

The straight ones on the right are what happens when someone is left unsupervised with a ruler.

A good example of the difference between fact and fantasy.

..._

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HOLA447

TA is partially subjective and partially objective but to insult it is ignorant. You dont use it fine. But to insult it and therefore those who do is pathetic

Edited by Killer Bunny
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HOLA448

The only lines on the above chart that mean anything, are the squigelly ones on the left.

The straight ones on the right are what happens when someone is left unsupervised with a ruler.

A good example of the difference between fact and fantasy.

..._

Haha, at least there were less lines than the last chart I saw in this tread!

Unfortunately, facts in markets only happen after the event. Technical analysis tries to look forward into the future but is very subjective.

TA is partially subjective and partially objective but to insult it is ignorant. You dont use it fine. But to insult it and therefore those who do is pathetic

You are quite right but it is funny when people get so attached to the lines that they draw. I would have placed the trend lines over different peaks and troughs.

Edit: so many errors!

Edited by renting til I die
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HOLA449

The only lines on the above chart that mean anything, are the squigelly ones on the left.

The straight ones on the right are what happens when someone is left unsupervised with a ruler.

A good example of the difference between fact and fantasy.

..._

I make my living (a very good one) from trading currencies with TA. I've had to try and explain myself to so many ignorant idiots such as yourself that I don't bother these days. Just because you don't understand something, or are incapable of learning something then don't write it off as 'fantasy'

I imagine the real fantasy is that you think you'll make money in the stock market, because you probably won't.

Edited by honkydonkey
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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414

I make my living (a very good one) from trading currencies with TA. I've had to try and explain myself to so many ignorant idiots such as yourself that I don't bother these days. Just because you don't understand something, or are incapable of learning something then don't write it off as 'fantasy'

I imagine the real fantasy is that you think you'll make money in the stock market, because you probably won't.

Can I ask what TA you use? Only trend lines or do you use some other indicators?

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HOLA4415

Can I ask what TA you use? Only trend lines or do you use some other indicators?

I use action/reaction principles, andrews pitchfork and market structure based supply and demand. Those lines on my chart are based off a pitchfork but I removed it so not to cause any confusion and just keep it simple.

I don't use any indicators as they are all lagging.

Edited by honkydonkey
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HOLA4416

The only lines on the above chart that mean anything, are the squigelly ones on the left.

The straight ones on the right are what happens when someone is left unsupervised with a ruler.

A good example of the difference between fact and fantasy.

..._

Good to see you are back again!

Tell me was the Barclays Gold price manipulation fact or fantasy?

Edited by MSE refugee
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HOLA4419

I use action/reaction principles, andrews pitchfork and market structure based supply and demand. Those lines on my chart are based off a pitchfork but I removed it so not to cause any confusion and just keep it simple.

I don't use any indicators as they are all lagging.

Thanks, I did wonder how you came up with the target prices. I thought it might be some sort of Fibanacci method. I'll have to do some reading on Andrew's pitchfork, it's not a method that I have heard of.

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HOLA4420

Good to see you are back again!

Tell me was the Barclays Gold price manipulation fact or fantasy?

You need to keep up with current affairs and get out more.

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19087&hl=

..._

tryin' to decide whether "MSE Refugee" is a sock puppet, or whether "DiggerUK" does not understand a rhetorical question when he/she sees one. Someone help.

Edited by weaker
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HOLA4421

tryin' to decide whether "MSE Refugee" is a sock puppet, or whether "DiggerUK" does not understand a rhetorical question when he/she sees one. Someone help.

As you should know, sock puppets are ten a penny round here.

A ridiculous question is not the same thing as a rhetorical question.

..._

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HOLA4422

Dozens of Bulgarians queue outside bank branches to withdraw savings

30 Jun 2014 - 08:24

SOFIA, June 30 (Reuters) – Dozens of depositors waited outside branches of Bulgaria's First Investment Bank <5F4.BB> on Monday to withdraw savings despite reassurances from the government that their money was safe after a run on the bank and one other lender.

Bulgarian authorities are investigating attempts to destabilise the banking system and say there has been a concerted phone and Internet campaign to spread rumours, creating a crisis that has thrown a spotlight on weak economic governance in the poorest European Union state. [iD:nL6N0PA0ZC] The queues in the centre of the capital Sofia were smaller than on last Friday. At one branch about 30 people were queuing, about half the number seen at midday on Friday. Bulgaria's No. 3 bank says it has enough capital to meet customers' demand.

"I am here because I remember what happened nearly 20 years ago," said a 60-year-old woman, who gave her name only as Gergana, referring to a financial crisis in 1996-7 which sparked hyperinflation and the collapse of 14 banks.

"I trust the president but I think he was misled by the bankers," she said.

Another customer, Ivan, said he would move his savings to a foreign-owned bank.

About two thirds of Bulgaria's lenders are now owned by international banks, in sharp contrast to the mid-1990s when there was very little foreign investment in the country.

President Rosen Plevneliev and other senior politicians have been trying to reassure Bulgarians that their savings are safe.

snip... :lol:

The run on First Investment Bank started days after the central bank took over Corporate Commercial Bank (Corpbank) <6C9.BB> and shut down its operations following a similar run.

(Reporting by Angel Krasimirov; Writing by Gareth Jones; Editing by Louise Ireland) ((gareth.jones@thomsonreuters.com)(+49 30 2888 5214)(Reuters Messaging: gareth.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

Keywords: BULGARIA CRISIS/DEPOSITORS

Edited by weaker
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HOLA4423

silver.jpg

If/when MACD crosses above 0, it'll be like Thunderbird 3.

F. A. B.

A normal retrace is happening. 19.5/19.75 would be normal in an uptrend. Lower and the uptrend is in question.

I remain long.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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HOLA4424

Another mysterious death..

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/03/23/cyclist-56-struck-by-minivan-in-piqua.html

A Northwest Side bicyclist was struck and killed while taking a ride in Miami County yesterday.

...

Giampapa was taking part in a 200-kilometer ride from Springfield to Quincy to Troy and back

http://www.hangthebankers.com/jp-morgan-bankruptcy-lawyer-killed-in-hit-run/

The banker suicide saga has just reached a new level as a top level JP Morgan attorney has been exterminated in a hit & run incident involving a minivan.

JPM attorney Joseph Giampapa was killed over the weekend when he was struck by a minivan in a hit and run incident.

Giampapa was reportedly hit and thrown 150 ft and was pronounced dead at the scene. No charges have been filed.

It gets better: Giampapa was JP Morgan’s top commercial bankruptcy lawyer (SVP).

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HOLA4425

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