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Dave Beans

Asking Prices Fall 1.6% In July

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http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/house-and-home/property/house-asking-prices-fall-for-first-time-this-year-2315608.html

House asking prices have fallen for the first time this year as the number of unsold properties on estate agents' books reaches record levels, a report revealed today.

The average asking price for a home dropped 1.6%, or £3,797, to £236,597 in July, bringing to an end a run of six months of rises, according to property website Rightmove.

Greater competition to attract buyers amid "muted demand" has prompted the largest July fall since 2008 when asking prices fell 1.8%.

Seven in 10 properties put on the market so far this year have yet to find a buyer. This has helped push the average number of homes registered with estate agents up to 78 - the highest ever for the time of year.

So many sellers are struggling to sell their homes partly because mortgage approvals are running at about half the rate they were before the financial crisis, while some buyers are staying away, fearing that prices have further to drop.

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said: "Summer sellers are more nervous about their selling prospects than the early birds who asked ever higher prices during the first six months of this year."

But he warned that many home owners may not have sufficient equity in their homes to drop their prices any further and may be "trapped" in their current properties.

Asking prices are still 0.1% higher than a year ago but are now 14% lower than they would be if they had risen over the past four years at the same rate as inflation as measured by the retail prices index (RPI).

Mr Shipside added: "While property has a good long-term record as a hedge against inflation, in the short term property prices have become significantly cheaper in real terms as the cost of living has gone up, while the cost of housing has stood still or gone backwards."

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Good stuff, so the gap between seller fantasy and buyer capability has fallen to a mere £75k, or 3x average gross income.

Wait a minute, isn't that what the whole house should cost?

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Bear food on Radio 5 Live today at 8:50am, Miles Shipside telling it how it is regarding price drops. They were discussing how 7 out of 10 houses had been on the market over a year or something.. saying how stale things are getting.

Should be available to Listen Again soon.

Edited by exiges

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Bear food on Radio 5 Live today at 8:50am, Miles Shipside telling it how it is regarding price drops. They were discussing how 7 out of 10 houses had been on the market over a year or something.. saying how stale things are getting.

Should be available to Listen Again soon.

I like Miles shipside he always makes sensible anaylsis even if his index is a bit meaningless.

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Bear food on Radio 5 Live today at 8:50am, Miles Shipside telling it how it is regarding price drops. They were discussing how 7 out of 10 houses had been on the market over a year or something.. saying how stale things are getting.

Clearly the agents are in desperation territory. Losing money hand over fist so get the rottweilers out and drum up some price drops. #finallywakingup

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Clearly the agents are in desperation territory. Losing money hand over fist so get the rottweilers out and drum up some price drops. #finallywakingup

Isn't it only new instructions?

If they go on at ludicrous prices and then come down, that doesn't get recorded in this index.

Totally meaningless.

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Clearly the agents are in desperation territory. Losing money hand over fist so get the rottweilers out and drum up some price drops. #finallywakingup

No EAs, no funds to RM.

Spoke to another acquaintance this weekend, wants to move, can't/won't, frictional costs at these prices and the pricing in between the rungs mean this system is broken. Could actually do with a few months or even half a year of nothing to prune the EA business down to pre-bubble levels.

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Spoke to another acquaintance this weekend, wants to move, can't/won't, frictional costs at these prices and the pricing in between the rungs mean this system is broken.

Not to mention moving house will move people off their low SVR onto a higher fixed rate product.

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No EAs, no funds to RM.

Spoke to another acquaintance this weekend, wants to move, can't/won't, frictional costs at these prices and the pricing in between the rungs mean this system is broken. Could actually do with a few months or even half a year of nothing to prune the EA business down to pre-bubble levels.

An estate agent in a town near me closed last week. Hopefully plenty more going the same way!

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Bear food on Radio 5 Live today at 8:50am, Miles Shipside telling it how it is regarding price drops. They were discussing how 7 out of 10 houses had been on the market over a year or something.. saying how stale things are getting.

Should be available to Listen Again soon.

I almost spat out my toast. Bear food commentary on the beeb.

Though its not been repeated on tv sadly.

Comments about its only asking price are interesting, but starting price is highest and its what everyone copies. After all "my house is special and worth at least what my neighbours are asking for". Hopefully the downward spiral will gather pace and a return to normality resume.

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Hopefully the downward spiral will gather pace and a return to normality resume.

I just wish they'd do it the right way, namely through increased interest rates.. because they're going to have to put them up at some point, and the market can never be considered "normal" until they are. Not to mention my savings are being screwed over in the meantime.

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The EA's better get ready for some more competition from the builders - with the pek in the market confirmed by the last of the series there will be a rush to complete or build on all that very expensive land/property portfolio on the books before it goes down in price. Seen a sudden spate of scaffolding go up in the last few weeks. Reason there is so much commercial build in Lodnon too - not that there is demand there - just that once the opportunity is gone to flog off it will be gone. QE is a failure, the trade deficit is as bad as ever (i.e. horrendous), there is no rebalancing of the ecocnomy and now the whole population is being stuffed by inflation.

Only way is down from here.

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It's interesting how all of a sudden, the phrase 'real terms' is being trotted out. Until recently, I don't remember real/nominal terminology being used in the press, just prices up/down etc.

Now they are suddenly left with little choice but to start pushing that house prices are cheaper in real terms than they have been, as they cannot just use rising prices to try to scare people into purchasing now.

But without wages increasing at least in line with inflation while house prices remain static, then if anything, they are getting even more unaffordable in real terms. Just the latest subtle media ramping technique.

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Now the lead article in the business section on skynews website:

<http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/7-Out-Of-10-Houses-Marketed-So-Far-This-Year-Remain-Unsold-According-To-Rightmove/Article/201107316032295?lpos=Business_First_Buisness_Article_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_16032295_7_Out_Of_10_Houses_Marketed_So_Far_This_Year_Remain_Unsold%2C_According_To_Rightmove>

Rightmove says the number of unsold properties on estate agents' books reached record levels last month - largely because many equity-poor sellers are unwilling or unable to reduce their prices further.

Seven in 10 properties put on the market so far this year are yet to find a buyer.

Some buyers are staying away, fearing that prices have further to drop.

What the 3rd quote should read:

Some buyers are staying away, fearing hoping that prices have further to drop.:rolleyes:

Generally some OK analysis in the article, little by little we might get the message across...

Edited by koala_bear

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An estate agent in a town near me closed last week. Hopefully plenty more going the same way!

And fewer EAs = less competition = lower motivation to suggest comedy asking prices to win instructions or to keep the dreamers on the books if they don't want to budge on price

Whichever way you cut it, prices are only going one way from here.

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The BBC's take on it, the editor must be on Holiday.

Someone on the BBC must read HPC, "the reality gap" = HPC's delusion index!

delusion index of between 16% and 25%

<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14183649>

Home sellers 'cut asking prices for first time in 2011'

Unsold homes are still hugely over priced People trying to sell their homes have dropped their asking prices for the first time this year, according to the property website Rightmove.

It says asking prices dropped by 1.6% this month, or £3,797 on average per property.

The sluggish market this year has meant that 70% of homes put up for sale in 2011 have still not found a buyer, Rightmove said.

At £236,597, average asking prices are still far higher than selling prices.

The average UK selling price, as calculated by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) is £203,528.

This suggests that sellers or their estate agents are over-valuing homes by 16%.

The reality gap is even greater when asking prices are compared to house prices as calculated by the Halifax or the Nationwide.

The Nationwide says the average house now costs £168,205, while the Halifax says they cost £163,049.

That puts the reality gap at 21% based on the Nationwide's figures or 25% on those from the Halifax.

"Many equity-poor aspiring sellers will be trapped in their current homes, either unable to come to market or stuck on the market and unable to reduce to a price that will attract buyer interest," explained Miles Shipside of Rightmove.

"With seven out of ten properties marketed so far this year still on the market, sellers in the second half of 2011 need to do something different to promote their property and increase their chances of catching those elusive buyers".

Edited by koala_bear

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Figures in 'delusion index' are wrong.

EDIT: Emailed correct figures of 41% for Nationwide and 45% for Halifax.

EDIT2 can't type properly..

Was so shocked by the BBC quoting numbers for the delusion index that I didn't bother to see if the BBC numbers were correct.:ph34r:

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Was so shocked by the BBC quoting numbers for the delusion index that I didn't bother to see if the BBC numbers were correct.:ph34r:

Now corrected. Read it and weep, VIs:

The reality gap is even greater when asking prices are compared to house prices as calculated by the Halifax or the Nationwide.

The Nationwide says the average house now costs £168,205, while the Halifax says they cost £163,049.

That puts the reality gap at 41% based on the Nationwide's figures or 45% on those from the Halifax.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14183649

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Now corrected. Read it and weep, VIs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14183649

what a thing of beauty those figures are.

I think this kind of thing is what is really going to speed things up.

A figure like 40% is really going to make someone who is not too interested in figures generally sit up and take notice. Even if VIs come along and say 'oh but that is wrong because....' it is still hard to forget.

It's one thing to say to yourself 'I might be paying 10% too much for my house but what the hell, I like it' and quite another to say 'I might be paying 40% too much.'

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what a thing of beauty those figures are.

I think this kind of thing is what is really going to speed things up.

A figure like 40% is really going to make someone who is not too interested in figures generally sit up and take notice. Even if VIs come along and say 'oh but that is wrong because....' it is still hard to forget.

It's one thing to say to yourself 'I might be paying 10% too much for my house but what the hell, I like it' and quite another to say 'I might be paying 40% too much.'

If you take into account the full life cost of the mortgage alone, those figures double.

so 40% more is actually 80% of the purchase price too high.

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Now the lead article in the business section on skynews website:

<http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/7-Out-Of-10-Houses-Marketed-So-Far-This-Year-Remain-Unsold-According-To-Rightmove/Article/201107316032295?lpos=Business_First_Buisness_Article_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_16032295_7_Out_Of_10_Houses_Marketed_So_Far_This_Year_Remain_Unsold%2C_According_To_Rightmove>

What the 3rd quote should read:

Some buyers are staying away, fearing hoping that prices have further to drop.:rolleyes:

Generally some OK analysis in the article, little by little we might get the message across...

Drop in asking prices now being reported on R5 Live, with presenter's suggestion that property values falling is good news possibly for the majority...

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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