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Executive Sadman

David Smith

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Guess its probably because of the Murdoch pay wall, but didnt he use to be hate figure No1 around here, or at least top ten?

Anyway, seems he's still recycling the same old predictable garbage.

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001453.html#more

By that stage of the recovery in the 1990s Britain had recorded three years of 3%-plus growth. This time it appears to be different.

There are several reasons. The government’s fiscal tightening will reduce growth, as will the squeeze on real incomes from high inflation (though last week’s drop from 4.5% to 4.2% was welcome).

Uhh, yeh. Might that be because this time both the private sector AND public sector are tapped out. I mean the fact that real interest rates are zero (or even below) and in the early 90s were approaching double figure might, just might illustrate not many can take on debt EVEN if they wanted to.

Uk total debt 1990, around 200% of GDP. UK total debt 2009, nearing 500% of GDP

mckinsey-international-debt-chart.gif

More crap

I argued that the problem was monetary, not fiscal. Britain does not have too little public spending, it does have far too little bank lending, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Such lending began to fall on an annual basis in early 2009 and it is still falling now, by around 6% annually.

Why might that be? Oh, heres why...

uk-lending-to-businesses.gif

http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/07/bank-lending-to-business-down-8-percent.html

Gee, doesnt it look similar to mortage lending?

I guess maybe, just maybe, its gone negative because the 'pre-crisis' as Dave calls it (more accurate would be "cause of crisis") levels of growth were as high as 30%, and never below 10%. I dont know about you, but i dont recieve 10-30% pay rises, which ultimately has to happen to pay for all this business expansion.

Seems to be a running theme with the David Smiths, Blanchflowers, of this world. They simply cant tell inflation and growth apart. Big numbers impress them, and really big numbers really impress them.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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snip

Seems to be a running theme with the David Smiths, Blanchflowers, of this world. They simply cant tell inflation and growth apart. Big numbers impress them, and really big numbers really impress them.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

they also beleive that jsut because a thing is available, it is purchased by someone...money being their stock in trade, they assume somebody will always pay for another loan.

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The government has decided the public have to take on an extra £300bn of extra debt in this parliament.

How can banks lend that and have enough left for SME's?

They can lend an infinite amount....just dont expect savers to get their money back. the faster they can bring it back in, the faster they can get it out the door again...thats why they have capital ratios to hit....or not.

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David Smith once came on the main forum, pretending to be someone recommending the Economic Suk website.

I remember when I remarked that David Smith always gets economics wrong, they mystery person replied "No he doesn't. He is the Economics Editor of The Sunday Times so we should respect his opinion."

What a numpty.

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I'd really like to hear a journalist ask Krusty Allslop something along the lines of ...

"So Kirsty, at the start of the financial crisis you were adamant that there was nothing wrong with the housing market, do you feel like you were wrong after 4 years of a stagnant market and not much selling?"

As for David Smith, what a numpty.

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David Smith was the prime 'debt cheerleader', and could see no wrong with an accelerating level of debt compared to income. It would be best if he happily admitted he was wrong in his fundamental prediction/assumption - just as I will admit I was wrong about the HPC level due to government intervention (QE).

Still, my sig shows I and this website was right - just a bit out on the level.

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There was another admission of failure by David Smith in his article in this weeks Sunday Times.

Amidst all his waffle about being the on the ball on the Euro and predicting its fall I remember him boasting in January that he had been right about Portugal because it had not yet collapsed. Of course Portugal took a bail out in short order...

So it would appear that according to himself David Smith is right whatever occurs, a bit like Stephanie Flanders and her phantom recommendation on our housing market.

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Interesting and related point in today's Telegraph concerning a couple of our other pet hate figures:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8644311/Lets-not-bury-bad-economic-news-by-focusing-on-Rupert-Murdoch.html

Events in America have dealt a crippling blow to those Britons who wish to postpone our fiscal recovery, such as the economists David Blanchflower and Will Hutton. Washington followed their prescription to the letter and little good it did them. When the financial crisis hit, the US Government did not just bail out some banks, it also poured money into a whole range of the nation's normal activity, from cars to homes to tourism. The results have been disastrous. America is not recovering from this recession in a way that we would expect from such a vigorous, self-reliant country. In the past two years, the number of Americans in work has fallen, compared to the sharp rise in employment in the two years after the last deep recession in 1981-82.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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