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hirop

Catch A Falling Knife

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There seems to be some pretty consistent falls happening across Manchester right now. Although I'm not anywhere near starting a personal capitulation thread, if I wanted to I would be able able buy now, and I could be satisfied with what I bought (area vrs size vrs cost vrs borrowing) - my deposit is set (non-STR, non-gifted, all grafted), whilst over time it may get bigger, the size of the mortgage will not, as i have reached the cap at which I am willing to borrow. Whilst, in truth, the value found now is only relative to previous insanity, there is the opportunity\poisoned-chalice to buy a decent home without bankrupting one self. My biggest fear is that if I wait it out, and I am still minded to do so for year, then I'll need to be getting a mortage over less than 25 years - this is something I have not yet priced. Aside from this worry, I really would resent being the last bear to turn, and find myself handling the next two or three years of incremental drops. Although on the flip side, an aggressive over-payment strategy over the next 5 years could see the whole-cost of the mortage substantially reduced way beyond what reductions I am likly to see. Although the flip of that is again, that 5 years further saving may see the abilty to buy for cash - i think the compromises on life-style for that option are just too much given the last 5 years.

I think that is a low-end £170K(ish) North West bear's lot these days, choice has definetly come into it.

To keep it in-keeping with the NW regional prices context, here is 3 bedrooms 600m from the heart of didsbury if thats your thing (it's not mine, but I recognise it seems less that I have seen it before, this close)

My link

The SE & London may be entirely different, where choice is not part of the equation, and affordability is stretched beyond breaking point for new entrants to house buying.

Edited by hirop

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Last Land Reg numbers says Manchester was down over 10% over the last year. Throw in wage inflation of 2% (rather than 5% general inflation) and that's crash cruising speed.

From this point in time, where is the upward pressure likely to come from?

(the smart alec answer to the above question is BBC folk relocating with their London prices mentality...)

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Sorry hirop, I'm embarrassed to say I've been so caught up in my own situation, I haven't the foggiest about what you were looking for.

As to price pressures, I have seen a 2 bed terrace go on the market for 25% more than its 2007 sold price...

Now a bargain at £295k

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As to price pressures, I have seen a 2 bed terrace go on the market for 25% more than its 2007 sold price...

Now a bargain at £295k

But it's the "coming off the market" - that is, sold - price that matters. I've not seen anything in the sold data recently that shows anything other than a drop from 2007 prices.

EDIT: Typo.

Edited by Nomadd

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Seeing steady 5-15% drops in prices via property bee toolbar in areas of Burnage/Withington/Didsbury (east and west) ... :blink:

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But it's the "coming off the market" - that is, sold - price that matters. I've not seen anything in the sold data recently that shows anything other than a drop from 2007 prices.

EDIT: Typo.

I know that, you should tell the kite flyers :D bit of a flipper this house http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/5-oak-road/hale/altrincham/wa15-9ja/25443533 still gordan fishdick know what they're doing, it nots like they haven't sold 4 doors down for a ludicrous figure in months either :rolleyes:

I'm frustrated at watching 3 properties sell and not yet seeing the sold price come up to gauge my expectations.

Edited by daiking

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I know that, you should tell the kite flyers :D

I don't really concern myself with the "kite flyers", TBH. It's been going on so long I just learn to laugh it off. :)

Round where I'm staying at the moment - North London - properties have been flying off the shelves for the last 10-15 years. Most remain on the market for only a few weeks at most. In the last 2-3 months things have changed considerably. Lot's of property now backlogged and not selling; never, ever seen this before. Rightmove shows the highest number For Sale I've ever seen for this postcode. The prices, like you've mentioned in the NW, are 2007 + 25%. But it seems, that even here in "There will be no crash in London...etc...etc..etc" that breaking point has been reached. Actual sold data, for houses that sold before the collapsed "Spring Bounce", show no more than 2007 prices. The mood is very, very downbeat. And from a huge swath of South Manchester houses that I follow, I see the same thing: deluded sellers and EAs; continued dropping prices for those that do sell.

It'll be an interesting 6-12 months, for sure. In the meantime, if you are desperate, just keep sticking in those "cheeky offers".

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Last Land Reg numbers says Manchester was down over 10% over the last year. Throw in wage inflation of 2% (rather than 5% general inflation) and that's crash cruising speed.

From this point in time, where is the upward pressure likely to come from?

(the smart alec answer to the above question is BBC folk relocating with their London prices mentality...)

You've picked the top of the bounce off the pre-Qe lows.

How much has Manchester fallen from the '09 lows in nominal terms?

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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