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Considering the majority of US/European growth has been funded by debt expansion we are in trouble because the debt bubble has burst.

The system needs purging.

On aggregate the EZ runs a surplus.

If you aggregate US debt with Chinese surpluses you get a similar picture.

Resolve these imbalances (via 'defaults' and/or radical policy changes) and the 'problem' largely goes away.

Germany and China of course won't be happy as we can see only too well. Tough.

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On aggregate the EZ runs a surplus.

If you aggregate US debt with Chinese surpluses you get a similar picture.

Resolve these imbalances (via 'defaults' and/or radical policy changes) and the 'problem' largely goes away.

Germany and China of course won't be happy as we can see only too well. Tough.

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/11/24&type=HTML

First estimate for 2010

Euro area external trade surplus 0.7 bn euro

143.3 bn euro deficit for EU27

The first estimate for the euro area1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in December 2010 gave a

0.5 bn euro deficit, compared with +3.2 bn in December 2009. The November 20102 balance was -1.5 bn, compared with +2.7 bn in November 2009. In December 2010 compared with November 2010, seasonally adjusted exports fell by 0.4% and imports by 1.1%.

The first estimate for the December 2010 extra-EU271 trade balance was a 10.5 bn euro deficit, compared with

-2.9 bn in December 2009. In November 20102 the balance was -15.4 bn, compared with -7.7 bn in November 2009. In December 2010 compared with November 2010, seasonally adjusted exports fell by 0.3% and imports by 0.4%.

During 2010, euro area trade recorded a surplus of 0.7 bn euro, compared with +16.6 bn in 2009. The EU27 recorded a deficit of 143.3 bn in 2010, compared with -108.1 bn in 2009.

These data3 are released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

EU27 detailed results for January to November 2010

The EU27 deficit increased for energy (-267.1 bn euro in January-November 2010 compared with -218.4 bn in January-November 2009), while the surplus for manufactured goods rose (+156.7 bn compared with +142.5 bn).

EU27 trade with all its major partners grew in January-November 2010 compared with January-November 2009. The most notable increases were recorded for exports to Brazil (+48%), China and Turkey (both +38%), and for imports from Russia (+33%), China (+31%) and India (+30%).

The EU27 trade surplus increased with the USA (+67.0 bn euro in January-November 2010 compared with

+42.6 bn in January-November 2009), Switzerland (+18.5 bn compared with +13.5 bn) and Turkey (+16.8 bn compared with +6.8 bn). The EU27 trade deficit increased with China (-154.8 bn compared with -121.7 bn), Russia (-61.2 bn compared with -45.9 bn) and Norway (-33.0 bn compared with -28.6 bn). The deficit remained nearly stable with Japan (-19.8 bn compared with -19.4 bn) and South Korea (-10.4 bn compared with -10.3).

Concerning the total trade of Member States, the largest surplus was observed in Germany (+140.3 bn euro in January-November 2010), followed by Ireland (+40.3 bn), the Netherlands (+38.1 bn) and Belgium (+16.5 bn). The United Kingdom (-105.4 bn) registered the largest deficit, followed by France (-57.4 bn), Spain (-46.5 bn), Italy (-24.5 bn), Greece (-21.0 bn), Portugal (-18.1 bn) and Poland (-11.9 bn).

Not sure it's that simply looking at this.

Plus what are the Greeks going to manufacture that the Germans will want. What's the UK going to manufacture that the Germans want?

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On aggregate the EZ runs a surplus.

If you aggregate US debt with Chinese surpluses you get a similar picture.

Resolve these imbalances (via 'defaults' and/or radical policy changes) and the 'problem' largely goes away.

Germany and China of course won't be happy as we can see only too well. Tough.

Yes, but this involves radical changes to both the deficit and surplus countries' economic models. That will involve jobs moving from one industry to another.

It wouldn't have been so bad if both sides hadn't intentionally perpetuated the activities, which lead to growing imbalances. Unfortunately, both were in it for the short term and now the speeding train has run out of rails...

EDIT: Additionally, we have similar imbalances in our national economies, with the rich dominating the wealth, with almost everyone else left with a heavy debt burden. It's a similar solution though - the rich need to spend.

Edited by Traktion

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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