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john_d_uk

Wiltshire - Update!

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This weekend I had not one, but 2 calls from a developer in Malmesbury, Wilts. They are now ready to 'discuss options' on new-builds in town. Really nicely built properties, but seriously overvalued.

They want £239,000 for a 3 bed terraced house. 2 months ago they would not even discuss 'negotiations in prices'

Now they are willing to have a 'special offer' for £215,000. I told them I would not go over £200,000 and they were still interested, if I exchange quickly. I reckon if I wait another couple of months they will bite my hand off for less than that.

Any thoughts?

Edited by john_d_uk

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This weekend I had not one, but 2 calls from a developer in Malmesbury, Wilts. They are now ready to 'discuss options' on new-builds in town. Really nicely built properties, but seriously overvalued.

They want £239,000 for a 3 bed terraced house. 2 months ago they would not even discuss 'negotiations in prices'

Now they are willing to have a 'special offer' for £215,000. I told them I would not go over £200,000 and they were still interested, if I exchange quickly. I reckon if I wait another couple of months they will bite my hand off for less than that.

Any thoughts?

Well its obvious they realise the market is headed down as against up or stagnant. If they have indeed agreed to sell @200K if you exchange quickly [quickly being the key] that's all you need to know.

Regards todays perceived bargains, hindsight will exposed them as yesterdays honey trap. Well we all like a bargain its human nature, and thats why punters will get sucked in all the way to the bottom.

Its tempting, its meant to be, only you can decide if you can live with it if they carry on going down ofter you have bought. There again the developers may be willing to give you a good price just to act as a decoy to suck other less accomlished negotiators in buy. There did I appeal to your vanity, its just the kind of trick sales negotiators use ;) Theres nothing like somebody in and enjoying their new home to give confidence to undecided perspective buyers.

In anycase best of luck with whatever you do, keep us posted either way, if you go for it, it does not mean I will think your a sucker, everybodies priorities are different. Whats important to me is not if people buy or don't buy, but their reasons for doing either. House prices are based on nothing more than the avaliability of funds and the sentiment of the herd.

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Thanks for the advice, pretty much what I'm thinking really. We have 2 new housing developments in town, both of which would have all been sold 'off plan' 2 years ago.

Both sites have now about 30% sold and occupied, 50% un-sold and the rest with a tentative 'reserved' sign up - we all know what they mean.

I don't intend to buy at the moment, more I'm wondering what discount from today's prices makes it worthwhile considering. I reckon about 30%, which in the example I'm using would be 30% off £239,000 makes a price of £167,000 (reduced by £71k) which I would think is fairly reasonable in my town. (Then about 3 times joint average earnings)

:unsure:

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My own weekend tale:

[extracted from The Diary of a STR'er] :rolleyes:

The wife and I went round a new development yesterday SEE HERE show house opened last weekend. We have no intention of buying, but we both like looking at new houses. Indeed we both like owning nice houses, born out by the fact we have been in the market of owning houses for 37 years, but importantly "not at any price"

Anyway they were really impressive the detached that is, apart from the fact that they had squeezed one to many in on the site IMO. The 3 bed terraces were small, no amenity space outside, and right on the road side [a main road linking East Lances and West Yorks] and I could see visitor parking issue's. And in any case though the houses are priced at what has been in the past achievable prices, they are nevertheless in my opinion over priced as I'm looking further down the housing price correction trend.

Well once the sales agent found out we were STR's she was all over us like a rash though very nice, though we managed to sneak off. But she rang us up to apologise that she had not seen us before we left the site, and was everything OK, and had we the plans and price sheets? It is evident proceed able buyers are in short supply, the classic sign of a market in trouble. We were in this very same position in the 1973 to 1978 house market correction, been an active participant in the past two market corrections, and pride myself in knowing one when I see one.

Dare say there will be many young guns out there will tell me its "different this time" and I dare say they are right to some degree. But we differ on the interpitation of "different" because I personally don't believe the long term trend has the capacity to revive its self like it has done in the past. The bulk of jobs being created are service industry low pay offerings, not the fuel for rampant house price appreciation. And once this crop of overstretch buyers taste the reverse side of the HP trend they will have little stomach for more of the same.

I realise there is a possibility I could be wrong regards the long term view, hell I'm only human and after all any things possible. But in the end I have to base my personal judgement on my past experience of house market corrections, and the balance of probabilities as I see it regards future trends. And put plain and simple, right now I see "BEING OUT" of the market as being less of a gamble than "BEING IN" the market. Because believe me when housing markets go really negative, in that every man and his dog knows its negative. If your "IN" the market the nature of the beast dictates unless your prepared to take a big hit you are for all intent and purpose LOCKED IN. Novice buyers and plain and simple mugs are about right now, but boy they dry up pretty quick when the writing is really on the wall, and the banks become more debt averse.

But hey but don't let me colour anybodies judgement ......all you got to ask yourself is .....do you feel lucky .....well do ya ? :unsure:

Edit:

john_d_uk the above is not directed at you mate, just a generalisation of how I see this market and were I'm coming from.

Regards you further comments, I reckon if you look for 30% of the achievable peak of the market in your area you should be OK, but there again nobody knows where this market will end up. But put simply when renting is dearer than buying I reckon most perspective buyers will enter the market, there again if prices are dropping like a stone fear could keep people out indefinately, its that old herd instinct again.

Malmesbury vey nice part of the world you live in, we visited it when we were down visiting our son when he was in the RAF. He was living in Wooton Basset, I love saying Wooooootan Bassssssssssssset in a long West Country drawl. Proberbly sounds crap to a true West countryman mind, as I've got a hi-bred Lancashire/Yorkshire accent. :rolleyes:

Edited by Catch22

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Malmesbury is a great area.... nice and posh!!! If you have managed to knock them down that much I would say go for it. If you are planning to stay for the long term ie.kids and family etc the Malmesburys schools are one of the best in Wiltshire. My friend lives on Tetbury hill and Im always very jealous when visiting...in a nice way of course!

BTW is the new builds where that woman was murdered last year??? just a thought :huh:

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Malmesbury is a great area.... nice and posh!!! If you have managed to knock them down that much I would say go for it. If you are planning to stay for the long term ie.kids and family etc the Malmesburys schools are one of the best in Wiltshire. My friend lives on Tetbury hill and Im always very jealous when visiting...in a nice way of course!

BTW is the new builds where that woman was murdered last year??? just a thought :huh:

Knoll House development on the Swindon Road. I live 3 miles from it.

I've seen the developments and they are a rip off. You could buy 3/4 bedroom detached

for 200K if you look around.

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I used to work at RAF Lyneham too, and lived in Wootton Bassett, a nice place, but Malmesbury is more what I like in life now at my age (XXXIX) .

I am just waiting for the developers to start squeeking, and possibly then make an offer. Not sure yet, but if something is at the 'right' price, I might think about it.

There was a very useful thread on here a few days ago relating to a house's value against its asking price. If the developers (or any seller) is prepared to recognise the actual 'value' then the price should concurr. (I hope that makes sense) and it should make sense to buy. But only then; not when the house's price simply exceeds the actual value of the property.

I guess the constituent value of a property might include:

The type of house - is it what the buyer wants?

The location / type of the settlement it is in

The rentable value? (minimum % return on investment)

The future demographics / investment plans for that area

The duration someone wants to live in the house

The purpose for the occupation

The available purchasing market

The history of the location (ie no murders, or other awful happenings as mentioned by Miche) These were even more expensive than the site I am writing about, but the sheeple still bought them at hugely excessive prices last year.

And any number of other factors; I guess this is what I'm looking at right now. I do not believe there are many properties in my area currently where the price is consistent with the value. This will correct in the short to medium term, but I guess there is still the possibility of the right property now, but only if the seller is either realistic or desperate to sell.

Malmesbury as a town has excellent schools, gym, town centre (certainly not 'clone town') churches and countryside adjacent, so most of the above points are well met. The housing market here has definitely stalled and I think in another year of so, will be much more realistic.

JD

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John,

Town center can get quite rowdy on a Friday / Saturday night, although Smoking Dog / Whole Hog are not

too bad. Also Malmesbury has a history of flooding, especially near Daniels Well and The Rose & Crown -

incase you were unaware!

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Listening to one of the crappy local radio stations in the barber's yesterday - Redrow are starting to sound a little desperate. Didn't catch the location, but the offers were flying thick and fast, stamp paid, deposit paid and 5K cashback or free carpets (I can't see how anyone could find a way to spend 5K on carpets in a new-build rabbit hutch even if they put down Axminsters in the bathroom, but there you are)

More and more developers seem to be working hard to shift properties in Wilts/Ox :lol:

They're running out of ways of doing de facto price cuts without admitting that property prices are falling - one of them is bound to blink first and use the "reduced" word sooner or later.

I would love to hear from anyone who's bought or inquired about a new-build lately - I wonder what sort of cash discounts they're offering to those smart enough to negotiate hard.

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Thanks Ozzmosiz

The Smoking Dog (Smelly Mutt as known locally) is the best pub in town IMHO, closely followed by The Whole Hog. There is very little trouble in town, almost all people I know/ have seen about are capable of having a good night out without doing anything silly. It is a great place, I have lived there over 2 years now and simply wouldn't live anywhere else. Having recently lived in South Wales (great apart from the attitude of some narrow minded locals) and North Kent (Grim) I think I can recognise a great place to live when I see one!!!

Ref the flooding, not sure the last time it happened, but thanks for the reminder. The new developer's site I am talking about is on Gloucester Road near to Somerfield - right on the flood plain next to the River Avon......

A quick calc - 14 properties at say £150k each (land and building/marketing costs) = £2,100,000 to build. I wonder what the monthly repayments on a development loan for that is? possibly £10k per month?? That soon adds up, especially when only 1/2 the development (the flats) have sold, leaving the larger properties draining any savings / contingencies rapidly.

I do think it is only time before the first developer cracks and starts to flog off things under a 'reduced' banner. The developer in Malmesbury is only a small company, I think so he will not have much of a buffer zone.

Watch this space.

JD

:o

Edited by john_d_uk

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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