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House Prices Drop For 15th Consecutive Month

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House prices fell for the 15th month in a row in September, according to the research group Hometrack, which reported a drop of 0.1%.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0...1583493,00.html

House prices in the UK fell for the fifteenth month in a row in September, dipping 0.1 pct in a buyers' market, according to leading property website Hometrack.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

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Heaven, I’m in heaven

And my heart beats so that I can hardly speak

And I seem to find the happiness I seek

When house prices seem to tumble, week by week

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these lot with their nice "stats" are on drugs! Outside there is a sign up "LESS 10%". That means that the people who bought prior to this are 10% down. What the hell 0.1% get outta vit. All I see in EA windows now is "reductions" not less 0.1% What these stupid people dont realise is housing in england is massively over-valued. Its not rocket science. Real prices are falling much faster than their cute stats.

2p

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Inflation goes from 23% to an ever decreasing 2% gap.

But a house price crash can clearly be rulled out according to Wrigglesworth.

So, it's just going to stop when it hits zero then is it? :D

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Guest consa
Inflation goes from 23% to an ever decreasing 2% gap.

But a house price crash can clearly be rulled out according to Wrigglesworth.

So, it's just going to stop when it hits zero then is it? :D

I can just see that graph in your Avatar suddenly go horizontal :lol::lol::lol:

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I am not so sure about the 0.1% being an accurate reflection of the real market. In my area (Evesham) a builder offered me "at least" 10% off the asking price on a new home without any hesitation whatsoever. 0.1% would have been a discount of 250 pounds which no builder anxious to move homes of the lot would dare suggest. I think Hometrack may have been closer to the mark if they moved the decimal point two places to the left! :lol:

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The house next door to me is £315,000.

New Build - farm house conversion

Has been for sale for 2 years and three months. Swapped EA twice.

This week in a genuine attempt to sell his house he:-

Puts a fence up

Throws in a smart car.

The house is overvalued by £60,000 even in todays market. But will they bring the price down. NO

And this is the problem I find here. Why do they think if the house is too dear I'm not buying it because there is no smart car included.

Edited by eurows

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Guest consa
I am not so sure about the 0.1% being an accurate reflection of the real market. In my area (Evesham) a builder offered me "at least" 10% off the asking price on a new home without any hesitation whatsoever. 0.1% would have been a discount of 250 pounds which no builder anxious to move homes of the lot would dare suggest. I think Hometrack may have been closer to the mark if they moved the decimal point two places to the left! :lol:

Do you mean right :lol:

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I'm a first time correspondant, but have read all of your coments with great interest over the last few weeks. This is a really invigorating and (usually!) very informative debate, so thanks to everyone for the education.

Apologies if this isn't the correct forum for this question, but one key bit of information that I can't seem to find an accurate answer to is exactly how bad the late 80's/early 90's housing crash was. I guess the worst of it was seen in London right? So dooes anyone know how much a buyer who bought in London at the very peak of the last cycle had lost by the time the market reached its bottom (ie in %)? Also, how long did it take for the house that that same unfortunate had purchased to regain the value that the person had originally paid for it (ie how long was he/she in negative equity for)?

Basically I'm curious because there's a lot of fear about a market crash, but I haven't seen the crash actually quantified.

Thanks to anyone who has such information. :unsure:

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Home track also said "The number of prospective buyers remained static, but the number of transactions rose by 5.5% compared with growth of 4.1% in August, suggesting that confidence is improving. Hometrack said lower interest rates, rising incomes and a buoyant labour market are helping boost demand. The chief economist said that while another boom in house prices is not in prospect, a house price crash can clearly be ruled out."

So the slowdown continues and the crash seems to be ruled out by them

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these lot with their nice "stats" are on drugs! Outside there is a sign up "LESS 10%". That means that the people who bought prior to this are 10% down. What the hell 0.1% get outta vit. All I see in EA windows now is "reductions" not less 0.1% What these stupid people dont realise is housing in england is massively over-valued. Its not rocket science. Real prices are falling much faster than their cute stats.

2p

I most heartily agree. Are these the ghastly "annualised"! figures? If they are then they are not worth the paper their written on. If they're not, then the manipulator/ compiler of that stat is lying. How can it be a 0.1 % reduction when, as you say, there is evidence before our eyes of MASSIVE reductions compared to this pathetic statistic.

Where on EARTH do they get 0.1 from? What mendacity is afoot?

VP

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<So dooes anyone know how much a buyer who bought in London at the very peak of the last cycle had lost by the time the market reached its bottom (ie in %)? Also, how long did it take for the house that that same unfortunate had purchased to regain the value that the person had originally paid for it (ie how long was he/she in negative equity for)?>

Friend of mine bought in docklands in early 1989. Think it was 1 bed bought for approx £95k. Got married etc later on and could not sell to buy a house as in 1992 was only worth £55k and could not clear -ve equity. He rented it out and bought elsewhere. Only went into +ve equity again in 1996...

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I'm a first time correspondant, but have read all of your coments with great interest over the last few weeks. This is a really invigorating and (usually!) very informative debate, so thanks to everyone for the education.

Apologies if this isn't the correct forum for this question, but one key bit of information that I can't seem to find an accurate answer to is exactly how bad the late 80's/early 90's housing crash was. I guess the worst of it was seen in London right? So dooes anyone know how much a buyer who bought in London at the very peak of the last cycle had lost by the time the market reached its bottom (ie in %)? Also, how long did it take for the house that that same unfortunate had purchased to regain the value that the person had originally paid for it (ie how long was he/she in negative equity for)?

Basically I'm curious because there's a lot of fear about a market crash, but I haven't seen the crash actually quantified.

Thanks to anyone who has such information. :unsure:

London rose the most and fell the most in the last boom/bust.

Using Nationwide QUARTERLY data (so this is not necessarily exactly peak to trough), the average London property peaked at £97,667 by end Q2 1989. It fell to £66,573 by end Q4 1992 (down £31,094 or 32%). It broke back through the original level sometime during Q1 1998 (£98,387 by end Q1 1998). In nominal terms the average price took nearly nine years to recover.

However, in REAL terms (measuring the "purchasing power" of the average property - say how many pints of lager you could have bought with the property's value) the position was worse.

With the same numbers adjusted for (RPI) inflation the average London property peaked in Q3 1988 and bottomed out in Q1 1996 (down over 45% in REAL terms). The average London property finally regained its end Q3 1988 value in Q2 2001 (nearly 13 years later!).

It was VERY messy for Londoners last time around!

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The FT has said that there is evidence that only the higher quality houses are selling, pushing up the average, even as the prices reduce.

As a crude example, imagine a market of:

1 high quality house worth £2,000

3 low quality houses worth £1,000

All the houses sell every month, averaging £1,250 per house.

All the prices drop 10%.

The high quality house sells, but only 2 of the low quality houses sell.

The new average price is (£1,800+£900+£900)/3 = £1,200 per house - a mere 4% drop from £1,250 even though all the houses are 10% down.

EDITED: For poor quality 'top-of-the head' calculations.

And if 1 high quality sells with only 1 low quality one selling [both with a 10% drop]

New average price is (£1,800+£900)/2 = £1,350 per house, an 8% rise!!! - time to get on that ladder!!!

lies, more lies and statistics!

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these lot with their nice "stats" are on drugs! Outside there is a sign up "LESS 10%". That means that the people who bought prior to this are 10% down. What the hell 0.1% get outta vit. All I see in EA windows now is "reductions" not less 0.1% What these stupid people dont realise is housing in england is massively over-valued. Its not rocket science. Real prices are falling much faster than their cute stats.

2p

These stats not necessarily have to be incorrect.

They show you distribution mean of an increasingly skewed price pattern.

The market has soften and if you actively looking for a discount you gonna

find one. But, there are still many ignorant buyers who are unaware of this

fact and not achieving their best price.

This situation happens when there are not enough buyers so some sellers

need to discount their prices, but buyers are not using their advantage

to the full for some reason. Hence anecdotal cases of 20-15% discounts

with average trend of mere 0.1% is a possibility.

Cheers

EDIT: Good thing is that skewed price pattern MAY serve as a possible sign

of new trend due to relatively slow distribution of information on the market.

Edited by LazyDay

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Home track also said "The number of prospective buyers remained static, but the number of transactions rose by 5.5% compared with growth of 4.1% in August, suggesting that confidence is improving. Hometrack said lower interest rates, rising incomes and a buoyant labour market are helping boost demand. The chief economist said that while another boom in house prices is not in prospect, a house price crash can clearly be ruled out."

So the slowdown continues and the crash seems to be ruled out by them

Hometrack tracks ASKING Prices thus as they are falling transaction prices will follow (Nationshite and Scamifax).

When sellers (why why why do they call them vendors - yes I know the french but it just bleeding jargon) accept to lower their prices watch Hometrack and Rightmove tumble...

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Get real - everyone knows the VI "year" has 24 months not 12......and will end sometime in 2010 when prices may start to rise again

Hah! Fine by me: should get my timing just right in that case...

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<So dooes anyone know how much a buyer who bought in London at the very peak of the last cycle had lost by the time the market reached its bottom (ie in %)? Also, how long did it take for the house that that same unfortunate had purchased to regain the value that the person had originally paid for it (ie how long was he/she in negative equity for)?>

Friend of mine bought in docklands in early 1989. Think it was 1 bed bought for approx £95k. Got married etc later on and could not sell to buy a house as in 1992 was only worth £55k and could not clear -ve equity. He rented it out and bought elsewhere. Only went into +ve equity again in 1996...

There is a map of London somewhere with this data. It tracks prices in lots of areas between 89 and 96.

It varies a lot but some places such as Tottenham, Wood Green were worth 30% less in 96 than they were in 89.

The only places to show anykind of growth were the likes of Chelsea or Hampstead. Some places stood still but imagine paying 100,000 for a place and it being worth 70,000 7 years later!

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Remember guys it is 3.7% down but in real terms it is down 6.1% if we take inflation 2.4% into account. Take this over 4 years and it is 26.7% if you cummulate the negative interest. That is a reasonable slowdown. House prices will have to rise 36% to make this down turn right again.

Plus real bad news has not happened yet. With no strong external shocks to the economy it might be on this downward path of 4-5% reduction for a while. He in Japan this went on for 14 years.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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