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Chunk

Back To Blighty - Where The Heck Do I Start?

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I currently live overseas and will be moving back to the UK next January/February with my other half and little boy. I originally hail from Openshaw but I don't fancy moving back to that council estate dump ;)

I've been following HPC for some time to try and get a handle on the market situation up North. I was thinking about renting for a while and pray that the bears are right about an impending crash but 4 bedroom rental properties seem scarce. Could this have anything to do with the BBC move?

I've got a decent deposit saved and a job that pays very well so I could comfortably afford a 350k house but the prices around South Manchester/High Peak are not value for money. My ideal house would be a 4 bedroom Edwardian with a massive garden and a view of some hills and back in 2005 this would have been possible.

Do you have any advice as to where to start? I can work from home so commuting isn't an issue and if you can suggesting anything other than Disley, Marple and High peak I'd be very grateful. Do you recommend renting for a year or hold out on renting for a few more years?

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I currently live overseas and will be moving back to the UK next January/February with my other half and little boy. I originally hail from Openshaw but I don't fancy moving back to that council estate dump ;)

So why do you need a 4 bed house for 3 people?

I've been following HPC for some time to try and get a handle on the market situation up North. I was thinking about renting for a while and pray that the bears are right about an impending crash but 4 bedroom rental properties seem scarce. Could this have anything to do with the BBC move?

Not if you believe the EA bullsh1t - the BBC are buying up every house, not renting!!!

Shortage of 4 bedders to rent is because its hard to get a group of 4+ people together to rent a place.

I've got a decent deposit saved and a job that pays very well so I could comfortably afford a 350k house but the prices around South Manchester/High Peak are not value for money. My ideal house would be a 4 bedroom Edwardian with a massive garden and a view of some hills and back in 2005 this would have been possible.

It might have been possible in 2005 but then you wouldnt have saved a large deposit so you still wouldnt have been able to buy it, would you?

Do you have any advice as to where to start? I can work from home so commuting isn't an issue and if you can suggesting anything other than Disley, Marple and High peak I'd be very grateful. Do you recommend renting for a year or hold out on renting for a few more years?

Are you seriously considering moving without renting?

Youre just gonna buy a house and move in after being away for years?

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I currently live overseas and will be moving back to the UK next January/February with my other half and little boy. I originally hail from Openshaw but I don't fancy moving back to that council estate dump ;)

But surely Openshaw - like every other "council estate dump" in the UK - has become a "hugely desirable, up-n-coming, executive paradise" since you left? Small three bed semis for £500k+ as they are close to an expensive Coffee Shop. Seriously, you need to know just what you're coming back to! :)

Do you have any advice as to where to start? I can work from home so commuting isn't an issue and if you can suggesting anything other than Disley, Marple and High peak I'd be very grateful. Do you recommend renting for a year or hold out on renting for a few more years?

As needle said, just rent for a while. And somewhere smaller and cheaper. I certainly wouldn't be looking to buy at the moment; prices have declined quite a bit in the last year or two, and I think that process has a long way left to run. Still, once you are back here, nothing wrong with you putting in "cheeky offers" if you feel like it. I just think a roof over your head via the rental market will give you a lot more time to plan things out.

Nomadd

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I need a 4 bedroom because both my Husband and I will need a home office each and I'm not naive enough to believe EA's sales tactics and that's why I'm asking folks on here about the current situation up North.

In 2005 I wasn't living in England but I used the year 2005 as a reference point because many people believe that the UK is heading back to 2005 prices. Is this the case up North?

I would never make a huge investment without doing the proper research (that's why I appreciate the feedback from you guys) so no, I won't be buying as soon as a I move back. What I am trying to do is set a long term plan because I need to think about schools for my little one in the next few years. I miss Openshaw the way it was back in the 80's before the dealers moved in but there is no way on earth I'd move back there now - even with my beloved club around the corner.

Chunk

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I need a 4 bedroom because both my Husband and I will need a home office each and I'm not naive enough to believe EA's sales tactics and that's why I'm asking folks on here about the current situation up North.

In 2005 I wasn't living in England but I used the year 2005 as a reference point because many people believe that the UK is heading back to 2005 prices. Is this the case up North?

I would never make a huge investment without doing the proper research (that's why I appreciate the feedback from you guys) so no, I won't be buying as soon as a I move back. What I am trying to do is set a long term plan because I need to think about schools for my little one in the next few years. I miss Openshaw the way it was back in the 80's before the dealers moved in but there is no way on earth I'd move back there now - even with my beloved club around the corner.

Chunk

Rightmove, 5 mile search, centred around Altrincham shows 884 4-bed (or more) houses up for rent at the moment. Guess the question is: how much do you want to spend? Lots of stuff out there, especially if you can work from home, so location close to work isn't an issue... Pretty hard to give specific advice, as we don't really know your situation. And in the current climate, just how secure is your work?

The "situation" is that a huge backlog of unsold property has built up. Anything even slightly overpriced isn't moving. Good stuff, sensibly priced in decent areas is still shifting - although check "sold" prices rather than the nonsense an EA will give you. And, IMHO, the sales figures have got much worse in the last 2-3 months, no Spring Bounce, as such. Pressure on prices continues to push them downwards, but it may well be a few years yet before we hit the bottom.

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Thanks Nomadd.

My husband and I will be lucky enough to be in the top 5% UK salary band and we live quite conservatively so if one of us did lose their job, we'd be able to live off the other person's wage. We both work in the software industry and our company is seeing substantial growth but hey - Microsoft could buy us tomorrow and then I'm redundant! Our company is nice enough to give us salary and private health insurance so we have some security in the worse case scenario.

The idea of paying out more than 1200 a month makes me feel sick but I'm slowly realising that is what I'll probably have to pay and just suck it up until we are ready to buy. I know Alty used to be considered posh (but then most places are posh if you're from Openshaw) but I think we'll move over to Whaley Bridge for a bit of peace and quiet (even though we are early 30's).

I have seen prices going down in general but I think my issue is that I like older houses that need an internal face lift - the current owners of the ones I like bought these houses pre 1995 and probably want to downsize to get as much money as possible for their retirement. The sad thing is, these people saw similar houses sell for 450k in 2007 and they think that is their value today. Hopefully in the next two years reality will hit and house prices will be a reasonable value again.

I think I'll adopt the 'wait and see' strategy for another couple of years...

Chunk

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Thanks Nomadd.

My husband and I will be lucky enough to be in the top 5% UK salary band and we live quite conservatively so if one of us did lose their job, we'd be able to live off the other person's wage. We both work in the software industry and our company is seeing substantial growth but hey - Microsoft could buy us tomorrow and then I'm redundant! Our company is nice enough to give us salary and private health insurance so we have some security in the worse case scenario.

The idea of paying out more than 1200 a month makes me feel sick but I'm slowly realising that is what I'll probably have to pay and just suck it up until we are ready to buy. I know Alty used to be considered posh (but then most places are posh if you're from Openshaw) but I think we'll move over to Whaley Bridge for a bit of peace and quiet (even though we are early 30's).

I have seen prices going down in general but I think my issue is that I like older houses that need an internal face lift - the current owners of the ones I like bought these houses pre 1995 and probably want to downsize to get as much money as possible for their retirement. The sad thing is, these people saw similar houses sell for 450k in 2007 and they think that is their value today. Hopefully in the next two years reality will hit and house prices will be a reasonable value again.

I think I'll adopt the 'wait and see' strategy for another couple of years...

Chunk

Understand where you are coming from. I just picked Alty as a reasonable "central point" for a circle covering South Manchester in either direction - going towards town, or away from it.

Work in IT myself, so know what you mean about the "good" money. Still, with all the off-shoring, it's best not to become complacent these days. :)

The bit I highlighted in your post seems to be the issue for me: I refuse to pay for simple vendor greed. I don't have a problem paying a "high" price for a house - it's just that the house itself has to justify it. I don't see why my 25 years of hard-won earnings should simply be "given away" to someone who happened to sit on a pile of bricks-n-mortar for the last 10 years and do nothing else. Give it another 10 years or so, until you are my age, and you'll feel the same way (i.e. You've worked for your retirement, not someone else's. :))

Still, the housing delusion seems to be rapidly breaking apart from what I can see; seems this year will be an interesting one. Next year even more so. I think the wait-n-see approach for a couple of years is a good plan. :)

All the best.

Nomadd

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Thanks Nomadd.

My husband and I will be lucky enough to be in the top 5% UK salary band and we live quite conservatively so if one of us did lose their job, we'd be able to live off the other person's wage. We both work in the software industry and our company is seeing substantial growth but hey - Microsoft could buy us tomorrow and then I'm redundant! Our company is nice enough to give us salary and private health insurance so we have some security in the worse case scenario.

The idea of paying out more than 1200 a month makes me feel sick but I'm slowly realising that is what I'll probably have to pay and just suck it up until we are ready to buy. I know Alty used to be considered posh (but then most places are posh if you're from Openshaw) but I think we'll move over to Whaley Bridge for a bit of peace and quiet (even though we are early 30's).

I have seen prices going down in general but I think my issue is that I like older houses that need an internal face lift - the current owners of the ones I like bought these houses pre 1995 and probably want to downsize to get as much money as possible for their retirement. The sad thing is, these people saw similar houses sell for 450k in 2007 and they think that is their value today. Hopefully in the next two years reality will hit and house prices will be a reasonable value again.

I think I'll adopt the 'wait and see' strategy for another couple of years...

Chunk

Bookmark and follow this thread by Freetrader for overall 'crash' progress and comparison with the previous crash '89 onwards.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=180

Keep an eye on region and city trends/performance (for instance North West and Manc prices have been stronger than elsewhere over the last quarter and year)

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2011.pdf

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jun_2011.pdf

You'll have to form your own judgements about the trade-offs between possible future nominal or real price falls (or prices to earnings ratio) and how that may or may not translate to the specific areas you are interested in. Since you're early thirties you may be less concerned about rushing into buying whereas someone in their forties might decide nominal falls are more or less now in and the duration of the mortgage and paying it off before retirement is a higher priority than say another few percent of nominal prices or 10-15% in real terms falls FWIW my opinion is we've seen the bulk of nominal price falls in better areas already, the remainder will be real falls over a protracted timeframe, say 5 or so years, and thus negotiating 5-10% off the house you want means the likelihood of getting it wrong in nominal terms at this stage is very small. However, it's quite likely supply and stock will continue to increase and thus there will be plenty of houses you don't want to buy in areas you don't really want to live in for several years to come. Clearly there are others who believe we'll see further significant nominal and real falls and they may be correct but it's not my view.

I've started from the point that it probably isn't different this time and extrapolated the Nationwide's real trend growth of c.2.9% (which may or may not be correct) and applied it to the mid'90s real terms lows of c. £80,000 to arrive at my own personal target for real terms (national average) lows of c. £141,000 which I expect to be around 2015. That's around 13% below current real terms prices and thus plausible with current inflation and stagnant nominal prices. But as said you'd need to apply that to the very specific house and areas you're interested in. Be highly sceptical of pricing on anything new built or redeveloped or without price history on nethouseprices.com or similar.

Watch out for macro policies designed to support banks/bank capital/lending such as further QE or similar measures. QE did appear to halt and reverse the rapid falls in early '09. So one might expect further QE to have a similar effect. Indeed that is its purpose!

Work out which are likely to be the 'best' areas for you to live in. Only you know what sort of house you want and what sort of areas you want to be in plus relevance of local amenties such as primary/secondary schools, supermarkets and so on. I'd have thought (as others have said) the best and unhurried way to do this would be to rent initially even if you end up paying a couple of grand more than you might wish. In the scheme of things and with your apparent joint high wages it will probably be money well spent.

Welcome home! :D

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Bookmark and follow this thread by Freetrader for overall 'crash' progress and comparison with the previous crash '89 onwards.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=180

Wow, that is a great thread. I hadn't really thought about applying RPI so I'll keep it in mind when thinking about pricing in real terms. It's becoming a bit clearer to me what we have to do. We need to get used to the idea of renting for a few years. I guess this makes me a bear :blink:

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http://www.rightmove...maxPrice=350000

Saddleworth?

http://www.rightmove...y-18770759.html

5 bedroom detached house for sale

£350,000

Huddersfield Road, Austerlands, Austerlands, Saddleworth

What's your view on Saddleworth?

Went up there for the first time a couple of weeks ago and found it delightful and surpisingly vibrant around Uppermill (it was very busy on a Fri afternoon). Sensational scenery and views but of course it may be different to live there as opposed to visiting and I guess access to some area will be tricky in the winter?

You're closer that I am - What's your opinion?

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What's your view on Saddleworth?

Went up there for the first time a couple of weeks ago and found it delightful and surpisingly vibrant around Uppermill (it was very busy on a Fri afternoon). Sensational scenery and views but of course it may be different to live there as opposed to visiting and I guess access to some area will be tricky in the winter?

You're closer that I am - What's your opinion?

The general opinion is Saddleworth sticks up for itself to the detriment to the rest of Oldham. It's supposed to be a really good community spirit up there though.

When it snows it really snows... but again they get the gritters on some of their roads when we don't down here.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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