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Time For Me To Buy After 5 Years Str

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After near 5 years selling to rent, am hoping to move in a few weeks.

I have a weakness for stone farm steadings, and have found one I like, at a reasonable price compared with the general market and on which the seller was prepared to deal.

There is space (10 acres, 5800 sq ft - not all converted yet, but good structure), views, location, development potential and scope for developing a few businesses.

Whilst I don't like the general market and think we're still perhaps paying 10% too much, I see some value, and feel pushed away from stocks, bonds, sterling and commodities in many respects and the attraction of owning my own place again feels timely.

In terms of justifying that I'm doing the right thing, the prices are similar to what they were when I sold to rent, but inflation has done its work, and my savings and returns on a few shares but mainly NS&I index linked have beaten the house prices.

When our present rental was advertised as being available, people were all over it, demand for rental property seems very high. And the removal men are busy.

My colleagues deceased mother's house in Edinburgh went for the home report value, 15% over the offers over price. Our house is not in Edinburgh, but we got it for 9% below home report value, which was already more reasonable than some.

Maybe you wish me luck, maybe you say I'm stupid, but discusion is interesting.

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After near 5 years selling to rent, am hoping to move in a few weeks.

I have a weakness for stone farm steadings, and have found one I like, at a reasonable price compared with the general market and on which the seller was prepared to deal.

There is space (10 acres, 5800 sq ft - not all converted yet, but good structure), views, location, development potential and scope for developing a few businesses.

Whilst I don't like the general market and think we're still perhaps paying 10% too much, I see some value, and feel pushed away from stocks, bonds, sterling and commodities in many respects and the attraction of owning my own place again feels timely.

In terms of justifying that I'm doing the right thing, the prices are similar to what they were when I sold to rent, but inflation has done its work, and my savings and returns on a few shares but mainly NS&I index linked have beaten the house prices.

When our present rental was advertised as being available, people were all over it, demand for rental property seems very high. And the removal men are busy.

My colleagues deceased mother's house in Edinburgh went for the home report value, 15% over the offers over price. Our house is not in Edinburgh, but we got it for 9% below home report value, which was already more reasonable than some.

Maybe you wish me luck, maybe you say I'm stupid, but discusion is interesting.

Sounds a nice retreat, all the best and enjoy.

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Yes, sorry, but you are stupid. Buying at the top of the dead cat bounce. This HPC pupil gets an ungraded exam paper.

Things are on the verge of kicking off big time. Another year to 18 months and we will be living in a very different world.

I am going to wish you luck though, because you are going to need tonnes of it, or at least a massive capital cushion you can afford to see go up in smoke.

Having said that, if you don't have gold you may be better off putting your capital into an overpriced property, rather than seeing it vanish into thin air via inflation, devaluation or bank collapse.

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After near 5 years selling to rent, am hoping to move in a few weeks.

I have a weakness for stone farm steadings, and have found one I like, at a reasonable price compared with the general market and on which the seller was prepared to deal.

There is space (10 acres, 5800 sq ft - not all converted yet, but good structure), views, location, development potential and scope for developing a few businesses.

Whilst I don't like the general market and think we're still perhaps paying 10% too much, I see some value, and feel pushed away from stocks, bonds, sterling and commodities in many respects and the attraction of owning my own place again feels timely.

In terms of justifying that I'm doing the right thing, the prices are similar to what they were when I sold to rent, but inflation has done its work, and my savings and returns on a few shares but mainly NS&I index linked have beaten the house prices.

When our present rental was advertised as being available, people were all over it, demand for rental property seems very high. And the removal men are busy.

My colleagues deceased mother's house in Edinburgh went for the home report value, 15% over the offers over price. Our house is not in Edinburgh, but we got it for 9% below home report value, which was already more reasonable than some.

Maybe you wish me luck, maybe you say I'm stupid, but discusion is interesting.

All that should matter is whether it is the right house, right time for you and you have the money to cover all eventualities. If you do buy now and houseprices fall then at least you'll be in a place you've obviously fallen for. Who cares what anyone thinks, there will always be someone telling you tomorrow is the end of the world as we know it. B)

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I just don't see it where I'm looking (close to tube stations). I set my sights on a particular property thinking this is going to be on the market for years at this price, couple of weeks later it's sold.

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Lots of threads like this recently. Bears tossing the towel in all over the show. I'll buy when there is blood on the streets and not a moment before...

I bought at the beginning of last week. Funded by cashing in my newscorporation share options! Dodged a bullet there.

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Lots of threads like this recently. Bears tossing the towel in all over the show. I'll buy when there is blood on the streets and not a moment before...

Odd isn't it.

It's as though they were all waiting for a signal from on high. Let's just hope they don't influence any unsuspecting guests into buying at the top of the world's biggest pyramid scheme.

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What I found interesting was that if you value UK houses in dollars or many other currencies they are off by as much as US houses are off peak (about 30%). Additionally after 5 years waiting for a crash I am now thinking that whilst they may not pull it off, the government will try anything it can do to prevent significant nominal house price falls. They will do all they can to inflate their own debts away and try to keep interest rates as low as they can before a 2015 election. So many of my investment decisions that were theoretically good (eg selling housing, buying defensive stocks) have been thwarted by political interference.

Another factor is that Scottish property has not participated fully in the rise in the prices over the last 30 years, although it has participated in the last boom more than the previous one where it looks almost flat throughout the English boom and bust.

Mortgage is 40% loan to value, 15% to buy it, 25% to improve the remaining attached outbuildings. Mortgage is 1.25 times joint income in the last year, although my wife lost her job recently and we have no other debt. If I don't lose my job, I would struggle if interest rates reached 25%.

These factors may or may not mitigate the stupid argument. I didn't expect or look overwhelming approval, but thought some may be interested in debating my change of heart.

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Yes, sorry, but you are stupid. Buying at the top of the dead cat bounce. This HPC pupil gets an ungraded exam paper.

Things are on the verge of kicking off big time. Another year to 18 months and we will be living in a very different world.

I am going to wish you luck though, because you are going to need tonnes of it, or at least a massive capital cushion you can afford to see go up in smoke.

Having said that, if you don't have gold you may be better off putting your capital into an overpriced property, rather than seeing it vanish into thin air via inflation, devaluation or bank collapse.

Isn't there a stream of capitulating buyers because some HPC contributors seem to be repeatedly warning that paper money might shortly be hyper-inflated away or that falls will only be in real and not nominal amounts, causing those holding fiat to run for the hills (although not always for the yellow stuff in them thar) ?

Pretty frightening to hear that, and history does have some examples, making the fear all the more real - whether it's likely soon or not.

That fear is based on the past, understandably so.

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hyper.htm

1. Germany 1920-1923 3.25 million percent

2. Russia 1921-1924 213 percent

3. Austria 1921-1922 134 percent

4. Poland 1922-1924 275 percent*

5. Hungary 1922-1924 98 percent

1. Argentina (Austral Plan 1985)

2. Brazil (Brazil 1980-1994)

3. Chile (Allende's inflation)

4. Bolivia (Bolivian hyperinflation)

5. Peru (Alan Garcia's inflation)

*Poland AGAIN, 1989-1991 Poland experienced a second hyperinflation between 1989 and 1991. The highest denomination in 1989 was 200,000 zlotych. It was 1,000,000 zlotych in 1991 and 2,000,000 zlotych in 1992; the exchange rate was 9500 zlotych for 1 US dollar in January 1990 and 19600 zlotych at the end of August 1992. In the 1994 currency reform, 1 new zloty was exchanged for 10,000 old zlotych and 1 US$ exchange rate was ca. 2.5 zlotych (new).

No wonder they take inflation much more seriously in good old Polska, where they have just increased rates yet again

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I wish I had confidence to buy more gold instead of sell it all last week to buy a house, as even my NS&I index linked certs which I instructed to be sold today have not kept up with real inflation IMHO and the inflation that must be coming given the devaluation of the pound. Gold is screaming bubble to me, and there is hassle with ETCs or various gold accounts, when Lehman collapsed my silver ETC was frozen because it was backed by AIG. My Icesave account blew up. Physical gold is a PITA in my eyes. Had I put all my funds into it I would have done much better up to now, but it seems in more of a bubble to me than housing. I can live in a house, run businesses from its outbuildings, rent out bits for holiday accommodation, and do things with land, but I can't do much with gold. That is what has stopped me putting more than a small amount into it for long periods, although I held short term positions worth up to 30% of net wealth at various times over the last few years.

I am as the poster above says, scared stiff of losing my hard won wealth. Buildings and land have a huge appeal to me in this respect. I'm buying because I'm more scared of the alternatives to be honest. I think on this particular house I'm exposed to about 10% drop in nominal terms. I could quite easily lose much more with gold I feel.

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After near 5 years selling to rent, am hoping to move in a few weeks.

I have a weakness for stone farm steadings, and have found one I like, at a reasonable price compared with the general market and on which the seller was prepared to deal.

There is space (10 acres, 5800 sq ft - not all converted yet, but good structure), views, location, development potential and scope for developing a few businesses.

Whilst I don't like the general market and think we're still perhaps paying 10% too much, I see some value, and feel pushed away from stocks, bonds, sterling and commodities in many respects and the attraction of owning my own place again feels timely.

In terms of justifying that I'm doing the right thing, the prices are similar to what they were when I sold to rent, but inflation has done its work, and my savings and returns on a few shares but mainly NS&I index linked have beaten the house prices.

When our present rental was advertised as being available, people were all over it, demand for rental property seems very high. And the removal men are busy.

My colleagues deceased mother's house in Edinburgh went for the home report value, 15% over the offers over price. Our house is not in Edinburgh, but we got it for 9% below home report value, which was already more reasonable than some.

Maybe you wish me luck, maybe you say I'm stupid, but discusion is interesting.

As long as you can afford it without killing yourself and its cheaper than renting go for it.

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What make me wonder though is why the capitulating bears feel the overwhelming urge to tell other HPC posters of their decision to buy ?

If I made up my mind to buy a house I wouldn't give a damn what the posters on here thought about it since it would be my decision and nothing to do with HPC.

So what is the logic behind it then?

Do these bears seek affirmation they have done the right thing?

Do these bears actually work in very quiet EA offices and are trying to get business through the door?

It is one of life's mysteries to me.

Do these bears have horns?

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I posted because the flow of information over the last few months has changed my opinion, and I thought it would be interesting to debate.

It seems that some don't care that the individual deal actually appears to have some value. I always anticipated I would pounce on something when a realistic seller and tight credit conditions arose in combination, even though that would be ahead of the wider market.

I'm actually scared of every asset class right now. It was that realisation that pushed me. I'm sorry if you feel that reading that opinion wastes your time. I may have only 100 or so posts, but I read and absorb a lot and tend not to post useless chatter.

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Odd isn't it.

It's as though they were all waiting for a signal from on high. Let's just hope they don't influence any unsuspecting guests into buying at the top of the world's biggest pyramid scheme.

its not odd at all, the whole purpose of countertrend moves is to destroy the smug certainty of those banking on the trend, alot of bears on here thought they could sit back, wait for an identical fall in one decline like the 90s and laugh, the market is doing its job of teaching them a lesson thats its not that easy. A bear trap(if thats what it is) has to do the same damage to the bears as the 90s bull trap did to the bulls, its job is to foster the same level of uncertainty of non falling prices as the actual bull market, often it creates even more certainty than the bull market which its doing with aplomb (the fact the reasoning is completely different to 2007 is immaterial, its the emotion thats important). I think its just people being taught a lesson that their is never certainty

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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its not odd at all, the whole purpose of countertrend moves is to destroy the smug certainty of those banking on the trend, alot of bears on here thought they could sit back, wait for an identical fall in one decline like the 90s and laugh, the market is doing its job of teaching them a lesson thats its not that easy. A bear trap(if thats what it is) has to do the same damage to the bears as the 90s bull trap did to the bulls, its job is to foster the same level of uncertainty of non falling prices as the actual bull market, often it creates even more certainty than the bull market which its doing with aplomb (the fact the reasoning is completely different to 2007 is immaterial, its the emotion thats important). I think its just people being taught a lesson that their is never certainty

I'm not banking on a trend, nor a repetition of the 90s. But, I am expecting house prices to be 30% or 40% lower, in nominal terms, during the next few years.

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Good for you sell2rent - I think some of our more arrogant posters need to wind their necks in - everyone has the right to an opinion but to call somebody 'stupid' on the basis that they have decided to move on with their lives it fairly childish, in my opinion.

You have made a decision based on your own personal circumstances and an opinion on where you think things are going.

Your opinion is as valid as everybody else's, as I truly believe that we are in uncharted territory and NOBODY on this site really knows what is going to happen, regardless of what they assert.

For what it is worth, I'm of the opinion that this Government will slowly deflate the bubble whilst the Banking institutions recover, whilst keeping IR's low to help the over-leveraged retain a roof over their heads.

But really......who knows!?

Good luck and enjoy!

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I have another arguments to throw into the ring.

The rebuilding cost for insurance purposes is about 2.4 times the price of the house. I wish it wasn't as it could make buildings insurance cheaper.

When I bought my first house in 1998 (a new build which just over doubled when sold in 2006, not as much as some, but for a new build in an overbuilt Scottish town, not bad), the rebuilding cost for insurance was about 0.8 times the price of the house.

To me that is a combination of expensive rebuilding and professional costs for stone buildings compared to timber frame new build, or perhaps some value.

The purchase price per square foot of the two houses is nearly identical despite 12.5 years between the purchases. A third of the floor area of the present purchase is unconverted, so at worst it is 50% higher per square foot if you valued the unconverted outbuildings at nothing.

I see value and a relatively safe haven for my cash.

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Whilst I don't like the general market.....???

In terms of justifying that I'm doing the right thing.....????

My colleagues deceased mother's house in Edinburgh went for the home report value, 15% over the offers over price....?????

Maybe you wish me luck.......??????

This is money: The home moving crash: house purchases stuck at 60% below pre-slump levels

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I don't like the general housing market and never expected to buy so soon.

I want to justify it as it is the biggest purchase I'll ever make.

I'm going to put my calculator away after this, but if you take the purchase cost of the house, and subtract the building cost of an equivalent sized new build at £1000/sqm, I'm left paying £110k for a 1 acre plot on which it stands, with 2000sqft of good outbuildings I can play with.

I don't feel stupid now I got my calculator out, and I'll be disappointed now if the missives fail before hopeful conclusion in the next few days.

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What make me wonder though is why the capitulating bears feel the overwhelming urge to tell other HPC posters of their decision to buy ?

If I made up my mind to buy a house I wouldn't give a damn what the posters on here thought about it since it would be my decision and nothing to do with HPC.

So what is the logic behind it then?

Do these bears seek affirmation they have done the right thing?

Do these bears actually work in very quiet EA offices and are trying to get business through the door?

It is one of life's mysteries to me.

We are all Bear Witnesses? :P

Tony Greenham, head of finance and business at the New Economics Foundation, participated in the Good Banking Summit, a gathering of over 100 experts representing more than 60 organisations. Their report will be published this Wednesday.

GBS = Grievious Bull-Shite!

The veiled Piss-Take is "BONUS" means "GOOD"

(It's also 'SUN' backward SUN-OB L. ob "toward, against, in the way of, about, before," from PIE base *opi- (cf. Oscan op, Gk. opi- "behind," ) :D

Write-up starts well >>>

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2013184/MONDAY-VIEW-It-s-time-retail-banking-roots.html

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I just don't see it where I'm looking (close to tube stations). I set my sights on a particular property thinking this is going to be on the market for years at this price, couple of weeks later it's sold.

All bought by buyers who are going to get creamed. You'll have the last laugh. Patience grasshopper.

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Odd isn't it.

It's as though they were all waiting for a signal from on high. Let's just hope they don't influence any unsuspecting guests into buying at the top of the world's biggest pyramid scheme.

Let's hope they do! The carnage will be even greater and there will be even more meat to pick from the carcass after the kill! B)

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What I found interesting was that if you value UK houses in dollars or many other currencies they are off by as much as US houses are off peak (about 30%). Additionally after 5 years waiting for a crash I am now thinking that whilst they may not pull it off, the government will try anything it can do to prevent significant nominal house price falls. They will do all they can to inflate their own debts away and try to keep interest rates as low as they can before a 2015 election. So many of my investment decisions that were theoretically good (eg selling housing, buying defensive stocks) have been thwarted by political interference.

Another factor is that Scottish property has not participated fully in the rise in the prices over the last 30 years, although it has participated in the last boom more than the previous one where it looks almost flat throughout the English boom and bust.

Mortgage is 40% loan to value, 15% to buy it, 25% to improve the remaining attached outbuildings. Mortgage is 1.25 times joint income in the last year, although my wife lost her job recently and we have no other debt. If I don't lose my job, I would struggle if interest rates reached 25%.

These factors may or may not mitigate the stupid argument. I didn't expect or look overwhelming approval, but thought some may be interested in debating my change of heart.

You're not taking a ridiculous risk in terms of keeping up the mortgage payments if you can afford for interest rates to get to 25%, but there is still risk. Interest rates hit about 20% in the early 80's and now is worse than the 70's that resulted in that early 80's rate.

Also there is the counter party risk of losing your job and losing the lot. Not to mention very likely capital loss.

Why not just buy a load of gold? No counter party risk, like fiat savings in the bank or overpriced property, and a guaranteed winner with the way things currently are.

Anyway, could be worse you could have a 5x earnings mortgage etc.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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