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Euro Set To Soar Over The Next 5 Years

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What the graphs seem to forget is that the debt that matured in 2010 has not been paid off, but has been rolled over. Same with the 2011 stuff. Most of this stuff has been rolled over for 10 years. Unless the PIGS get EU help, they have to roll at market rates - 17% for Greece, 11% for Ireland. A rate that is not sustainable.

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Think the author got the currency wrong on this one. Not that the Euro, if it still exists in a couple of years, might retrospectively do better vs. the dollar or pound, it's just being best of a very sorry bunch does not mean you are soaring.

For example, I am the tallest out of my siblings, but I am not tall if I go to Denmark or Iceland.

Edited by General Congreve

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Interesting article. I'll defer to more knowledgeable posters to pick it apart before accepting its argument though. It seems like he's taking a static view of debt as things stand and ignoring the fact that all of this debt is being rolled over at higher rates (and possibly at shorter maturities?)

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It is an “IF” but it cannot get worse than this

the riots seem to say different.

they could of course shoot them all, but then they'd still be in a bit of a pickle when it came to paying anything back if you've no-one to tax.

spreadsheet result article imo.

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IF they keep up repayments

and IF interest rates don't go up

and IF they dont accumulate even more debt in the meantime due to massive unemployment and a falling tax take.

Theres a lot of IFs there, but yes if they manage to pull it off then the euro will rise strongly, I wouldnt count on it though.

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Interesting article. I'll defer to more knowledgeable posters to pick it apart before accepting its argument though. It seems like he's taking a static view of debt as things stand and ignoring the fact that all of this debt is being rolled over at higher rates (and possibly at shorter maturities?)

hes got it wrong. hes equating a "deficit" to being the debt problem. thats what a lot of people, including our politicians, get mixed up with.

being able to service a debt does not mean the debt problem is solved.

if you have a mortgage and i double or even triple your debt levels, you might cut back spending on other areas, stop going out, purely just to service your debt.

the fact that you can pay back the debt doesnt mean you are in a position of strength, or that the debt problem has gone, it simply means you can service the debt.

as an example he says portugal doesnt have a debt problem. really? because this year is is 93% of GDP next year it will be 108% of GDP if it meets its targets. debt is rising. thats a fact.

the fact that you may redirect resources, or increase taxes to pay for it , doesnt mean that the debt problem has gone. its still there. and it will be there every single year.

Edited by mfp123

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IF they keep up repayments

and IF interest rates don't go up

and IF they dont accumulate even more debt in the meantime due to massive unemployment and a falling tax take.

Theres a lot of IFs there, but yes if they manage to pull it off then the euro will rise strongly, I wouldnt count on it though.

Yep, and as the old saying goes, "if my aunt had had b0llocks she'd have been my uncle".

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Euro set to soar over next 5 years.

It already has against the £.

It's decimated sterling,2001 £1 =1.65 euro

Today £1 will buy you less than 1.12 euro

If the eurozone can sort it's problems then in a few years it's possible a euro will be worth more than a pound.

I'm content with euro's,i managed to get 1.47 euro's to the pound i transferred into a foreign bank account in 2007,if this prediction plays out i'll be delighted!

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If EU can implement a debt schedule where each of the countries stick to the respective debt limits and learn from their previous mistakes

That is a very big caveat.

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Not sure I can agree with all, but some very interesting graphs...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29092.html

...ball games changed a lot since 6th July..... :rolleyes:

German 'Nein' leaves Italy and Spain in turmoil

Italian and Spanish bond yields soared to post-EMU highs in a fresh day of credit turmoil after Germany blocked any meaningful measures to defuse the crisis.

The tests examined 60pc of the overall insurance market in the 27 members of the European Union Photo: Alamy

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard9:04PM BST 11 Jul 2011228 Comments

Chancellor Angela Merkel called for more "frugality" in Italy, sticking to her script that Rome can solve its woes with an austerity budget. Her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble said any boost to the EU's €500bn (£440bn) bail-out machinery was "out of the question".

Mr Schäuble denied reports that Berlin was ready to empower the fund to purchase Spanish and Italian bonds pre-emptively on the open market, a move seen by experts as vital to halt dangerous contagion to the larger economies.

The market's verdict on EU foot-dragging was instant and brutal. Yields on 10-year Spanish bonds smashed through the 6pc barrier for the first time since 1997, made worse by warnings from the Castilla-La Mancha region that its deficit had become "extremely serious".

Italian yields jumped 44 points 5.7pc, a level that starts to threaten the sustainability of the country's finances. Markit's iTraxx SovX Western Europe, Europe's sovereign stress gauge, saw the biggest one-day rise ever. "Contagion was the word on everybody's lips," said Gavan Nolan, Markit's credit chief.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/8631219/German-Nein-leaves-Italy-and-Spain-in-turmoil.html

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Not so, if they took out life insurance on them all first...........

the riots seem to say different.

they could of course shoot them all, but then they'd still be in a bit of a pickle when it came to paying anything back if you've no-one to tax.

spreadsheet result article imo.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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