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Crash Gathering Speed?

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Just looking at Zoopla's 'most reduced' section for my postcode (in Shrops). Eight out of the ten most discounted are from the last two and a half weeks :o. Recently that had stuff stretching back into early and mid 2010.

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http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/3669807?search_identifier=49efdaa4cbbd9e13c51206a856f6ea6e

Just look at this one: seemingly reduced 57.9% to £200k... what were they thinking with the initial price. :o I wouldn't give anything like the current price for it.

Where I'm looking in Essex, prices have reduced from 4% to 14%.

However, well-presented properties are selling within a couple of months with no real problem. The last one I was interested in shifted in just two weeks.

No crash here, just a bunch of vendors who think their averagely maintained houses can be priced at the same level as the really good ones.

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I'm starting to think we wont get a crash, we will get people accepting their houses wont gain in value and if they have a brain they will understand that inflation will erode their asset value but just like in the 90s house prices wont come down, I guess they will stay at c 2004 prices (actual) and inflation will erode them from there.

Not may people realise that the 90s crash would be the perfct type of senario for most people, house prices stay the same and inflation and wage growth even 2-3% each year will work well for everyone

REALPRICEANDINF.gif

Edited by FIGGY

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, I guess they will stay at c 2004 prices (actual) and inflation will erode them from there.

Well, ive seen a few places at 2000/2001 prices (what I think is reasonable year) given the last sold prices in 2003/4, but they still look overpriced. I can only assume the people who bought in 2003/4 on these particular properties paid waaaay over the odds back then.

I guess thats the thing with houses, theyre all different. As an individal you can still overpay in the trough, and occasionaly find a bargain near peak.

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I'm starting to think we wont get a crash, we will get people accepting their houses wont gain in value and if they have a brain they will understand that inflation will erode their asset value but just like in the 90s house prices wont come down, I guess they will stay at c 2004 prices (actual) and inflation will erode them from there.

Not may people realise that the 90s crash would be the perfct type of senario for most people, house prices stay the same and inflation and wage growth even 2-3% each year will work well for everyone

REALPRICEANDINF.gif

House prices dropped in a big way in the 90's . London and the south east about 40%. While inflation and wage inflation was high so by the mid 90's compared to wages they were very affordable.

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Well, ive seen a few places at 2000/2001 prices (what I think is reasonable year) given the last sold prices in 2003/4, but they still look overpriced. I can only assume the people who bought in 2003/4 on these particular properties paid waaaay over the odds back then.

I guess thats the thing with houses, theyre all different. As an individal you can still overpay in the trough, and occasionaly find a bargain near peak.

What town/city?

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House prices dropped in a big way in the 90's . London and the south east about 40%. While inflation and wage inflation was high so by the mid 90's compared to wages they were very affordable.

yep and there is going to little wage inflation this time. :unsure:

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OP: you want to try living in London. There is no crash here.

yep- no signs of a crash or even a fall around here im sorry to say

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I'm starting to think we wont get a crash, we will get people accepting their houses wont gain in value and if they have a brain they will understand that inflation will erode their asset value but just like in the 90s house prices wont come down, I guess they will stay at c 2004 prices (actual) and inflation will erode them from there.

Eh? Have a play with the Nationwide House price calculator ;).

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/calculator.asp

Input:

£250000

1989 ......Q2

1994 ..... Q3

Greater London

Hit Calculate and lo and behold you see -29.66% That's a pretty big fall and I expect the falls to be bigger this time ;).

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I'm afraid that around London, even the vast suburb that I inhabit in SE London, prices have continued to rise.

Here is a sample street from my neighbourhood:

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=se6+1aj

All the houses are roughly the same, except some divided into flats, so the pricing is largely like for like.

Cue the UK postcode game, where for any given postcode a chorus of posters declare the area uninhabitable by any right-thinking person...

Regards,

Mr Smith

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I'm afraid that around London, even the vast suburb that I inhabit in SE London, prices have continued to rise.

Here is a sample street from my neighbourhood:

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=se6+1aj

All the houses are roughly the same, except some divided into flats, so the pricing is largely like for like.

Cue the UK postcode game, where for any given postcode a chorus of posters declare the area uninhabitable by any right-thinking person...

Regards,

Mr Smith

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=166381&view=findpost&p=3049959

It happened before, my money's on it happening again ;).

Regards,

Mr Banner

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I think you miss my point, the nationwide calculator takes into account inflation, if you look at actual prices then they didnt drop much in the 90s crash. Yes they went down a lot but almost all the decrease was inflation, therefore if you look at todays market you could argue that the drop has already happened and inflation will do the rest. The bigger point it that it may or may not happpen with wage inflation as well.

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I think you miss my point, the nationwide calculator takes into account inflation, if you look at actual prices then they didnt drop much in the 90s crash. Yes they went down a lot but almost all the decrease was inflation, therefore if you look at todays market you could argue that the drop has already happened and inflation will do the rest. The bigger point it that it may or may not happpen with wage inflation as well.

I don't think it does, if I put in the price paid for a house I bought in 1976 and compare it with 2005 when I sold it, the figures come out at about what I paid and received.

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I think you miss my point, the nationwide calculator takes into account inflation, if you look at actual prices then they didnt drop much in the 90s crash. Yes they went down a lot but almost all the decrease was inflation, therefore if you look at todays market you could argue that the drop has already happened and inflation will do the rest. The bigger point it that it may or may not happpen with wage inflation as well.

You need to look at multiples of wages. They crashed then on much lower multiples? Nothing that went on then compares to the credit-fest we have just lied (sorry, lived) through.

The biggest ponzi will deliver the biggest implosion. Last time was the Teddy Bears picnic. This is the Big Bad Wolf meets Godzilla.

Edited by dances with sheeple

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I think you miss my point, the nationwide calculator takes into account inflation, if you look at actual prices then they didnt drop much in the 90s crash. Yes they went down a lot but almost all the decrease was inflation, therefore if you look at todays market you could argue that the drop has already happened and inflation will do the rest. The bigger point it that it may or may not happpen with wage inflation as well.

No you miss the point as well as falling due to inflation which was running at about 10% at the start of the 90's the actual £ amount fell as well.

1988 I had a buyer on my flat for £64k the sale fell through and I sold at the start of 1991 for £50k . A few years later the same flats same development were selling for £35k the same as I had paid in 1985.

I bought a flat for £50 k in 1993 it had sold in 1988 for £150k quite an extream example but most places saw 40% off the £ note price without taking into the real inflation adjusted drops which would have been bigger.

Edited by miko

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All within about 20 miles of Bedford. Cant find any right now, but they come up every now and then.

Here you go, the best i can find atm...

Offers in Excess of £135,000

Tavistock Street, Bletchley, Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire

2 bedroom bungalow

Last available sold price: £138,000 22 Nov 2002

So thats below late 2002 price, not quite 2000/2001, but certainly early 2002, if it went for £135k

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-value.html?searchLocation=MK2+2PF&displayPropertyType=&bedrooms=&radius=0.0&sellersPriceGuide=Update+Results

Like i say though, i reckon they must have overpaid in 2002. Street doesnt look all that great, Garages/workshops couple of doors down, railway at end of garden, im surprised it sold for more than £100k in 2002, let alone £138k.

I'll keep looking, theres usually a couple at 2000/2001 sold prices within 20 miles of Bedford.

Edited by Sadman

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No you miss the point as well as falling due to inflation which was running at about 10% at the start of the 90's the actual £ amount fell as well.

1988 I had a buyer on my flat for £64k the sale fell through and I sold at the start of 1991 for £50k . A few years later the same flats same development were selling for £35k the same as I had paid in 1985.

I bought a flat for £50 k in 1993 it had sold in 1988 for £150k quite an extream example but most places saw 40% off the £ note price without taking into the real inflation adjusted drops which would have been bigger.

Dont take this the wrong way, those who lived through it (I did but not that I can remeber it) are using you own example. The chart I posted up on the last page wasent made up numbers, these are the real figures and although I'm sure there are plenty of individual horror stories, the over all figures show the falls were small but inflation took a massive chunk out. People seem to ignore the figures, but the fact is actual house prices fell very little

Edited by FIGGY

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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