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The Housing Boom Preceeding The 1980-82 "depression"

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this is actually quite close to the truth!!!

if you are a follower of market cycles like I am,then it seems pretty obvious that we are in a cycle similar to 1974-89....wars included.

...at a rough guess I'd say we are at about 1976,as a rough comparison.(oil shock,pending middle east war,a bit of industrial dispute but by no means the full monty yet!)

......the best(or worst whichever way you look at it)is yet to come.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
...at a rough guess I'd say we are at about 1976,as a rough comparison.(oil shock,pending middle east war,a bit of industrial dispute but by no means the full monty yet!)

Lets us look back to 1976.

The control of inflation has, of course, been a number one priority for successive governments ever since the war, but that has not meant it has always been under control.

The story was a different one back in 1976 when the new Prime Minister James Callaghan - who had just taken over from the retiring Harold Wilson - was faced with a rapidly sliding sterling and rising inflation.

We are still not earning the standard of living we are enjoying.

Jim Callaghan

At the start of that year, the pound was worth $2.202 - by September of that year it had dipped dramatically to $1.0637.

Inflation peaked at 23.7%, although by September it had dropped to 14.5%.

Worries about the sorry state of the British economy dominated the UK at the time.

Arguably Labour's failure to manage the economy was the reason it was turfed out at the 1979 General Election and failed to get back in for 18 years.

Political shake-up

On the political front, it was a time of great upheaval. Within the space of just 15 months, the leaders of all three political parties were replaced.

Jeremy Thorpe of the Liberals, resigning under a cloud of scandal, was replaced by David Steel.

Thorpe was later acquitted of conspiring to murder his former lover Norman Scott.

The Tories' Edward Heath, who had lost two elections in 1974, was replaced by the Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher and James Callaghan became prime minister following the resignation of Harold Wilson.

Lord Callaghan was the new PM in 1976

Coming to power on 5 April 1976, Mr Callaghan said: "The new government's aim will be to drive on with the vital job of bringing down the rate of inflation.

"If we fail, we shall never succeed in overcoming unemployment...We are still not earning the standard of living we are enjoying. We are only keeping our standards by borrowing."

In his first budget on 6 April, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey announced higher duties on wines, spirits, tobacco and petrol but there were no protests by the nation's lorry drivers or farmers.

In 1976, the average weekly wage for a man was around £70 a week - for women it was £45.30. This compares to £453.30 a week for men today, and £337.60 for women.

A sliced white loaf cost 19.2p (nowadays it would cost around 80p), a pint of beer around 32p (today you would be lucky to get change from £2) and a packet of 20 cigarettes - more socially acceptable at that time - a mere 45p (they now cost about £4).

All dried up

But for many British people, 1976 would be remembered less as the year of the falling pound, than that of the great drought.

In stark comparison to the great floods that hit Britain across the latter part of 2000, the period from May 1975 to April 1976 were the driest since records began in 1727.

The traditionally green English countryside turned an unpleasant shade of brown and temperatures rose to 80 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

Those temperatures may bring back memories of gloriously hot summer holidays, but the situation became so bad the government had to introduce an emergency drought bill in August to stop the unnecessary waste of water.

Elsewhere around the UK, things were not all rosy.

Rising troubles

In Scotland, figures for unemployment in January 1976 were the worst since World War II. Around 7.5% of the workforce were unemployed, compared to 6.1% of the UK workforce overall.

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...at a rough guess I'd say we are at about 1976,as a rough comparison.(oil shock,pending middle east war,a bit of industrial dispute but by no means the full monty yet!)

But not house prices.

I bought my first home in 1976 for less than 3.5x income.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
But not house prices.

I bought my first home in 1976 for less than 3.5x income.

The big house price correction everybody forgets today. Moved as a FTB from a two bed maisonette to a four bedroom detached house, the cost £17.950 being 3x income at average wage.

Who says the 1970s were hell?

Harold Wilson’s tenure in Number 10 resulted in average annual real house price inflation going into reverse (-12 per cent per annum). Jim Callaghan’s succession restored it to 4 per cent.

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Coming to power on 5 April 1976, Mr Callaghan said: "The new government's aim will be to drive on with the vital job of bringing down the rate of inflation.

"If we fail, we shall never succeed in overcoming unemployment...We are still not earning the standard of living we are enjoying. We are only keeping our standards by borrowing."

hmm... can you see Herr Braun

saying the same when he ascends to the throne? Quite uncanny that really... and wasn't Uncle Jim the Chancellor (and long term PM-in-waiting) immediately prior to Wilson's resignation?

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Coming to power on 5 April 1976, Mr Callaghan said: "The new government's aim will be to drive on with the vital job of bringing down the rate of inflation.

"If we fail, we shall never succeed in overcoming unemployment...We are still not earning the standard of living we are enjoying. We are only keeping our standards by borrowing."

hmm... can you see Herr Braun

saying the same when he ascends to the throne? Quite uncanny that really... and wasn't Uncle Jim the Chancellor (and long term PM-in-waiting) immediately prior to Wilson's resignation?

...really good spot there fancypants!!!...he was.

...when I mentioned 1976 I was thinking along economic cylces(not necessarily just house prices) but you may have picked up on something else which may be relevant here too!

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...really good spot there fancypants!!!...he was.

...when I mentioned 1976 I was thinking along economic cylces(not necessarily just house prices) but you may have picked up on something else which may be relevant here too!

as I was only 1yr old at the time, I had to go back and check my facts. JC was Foreign Secretary 74-76 which might explain why he felt it a bit easier to have a pop at economic policy (he had done his stint as Chancellor in the 60s)... GB might have a few problems as PM doing the same, although no doubt he might try to!

What is really uncanny about that quote is that Callaghan could quite easily have been talking about the situation now (or maybe next year when it becomes even clearer), notwithstanding who is actually doing the borrowing (govt then, govt & public now)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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