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Australia Anecdotal - Bardon Read And Weep!

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http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread.php?t=723544

I've been in touch with the bank who are happy taking $500pm from me. The rest of the monthly payment ($2,500) is just getting dumped into my bank account as overdrawn! ...

4 months and i'll owe $10,000 ...

How till it really pops over there, will it be China first, jeeeez, they have it bad! Poor old Expats, living the dream, turning into, all sun and no disposable income!

Edited by Panda

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where is Bardon 'the most succesful private investor in the UK' (his words) these days anyway?

does he still think 'cash on cash' (or Coc to coin the acronym) is really a risk-free measure of investment prowess?

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where is Bardon 'the most succesful private investor in the UK' (his words) these days anyway?

does he still think 'cash on cash' (or Coc to coin the acronym) is really a risk-free measure of investment prowess?

Does that make him a total Cash On Cash King? :unsure:

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Does that make him a total Cash On Cash King? :unsure:

he hasn't posted here since February, he was very highly leveraged, by his own admission, borrowed as much as he could to invest in properdie, because property markets he was exposed to in the UK and Australia couldn't fall at the same time

I wonder what might have happened since February?

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http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread.php?t=723544

I've been in touch with the bank who are happy taking $500pm from me. The rest of the monthly payment ($2,500) is just getting dumped into my bank account as overdrawn! ...

4 months and i'll owe $10,000 ...

How till it really pops over there, will it be China first, jeeeez, they have it bad! Poor old Expats, living the dream, turning into, all sun and no disposable income!

Not sure about Oz rules, but it seems that bank is technically converting secured debt into unsecured.

Which may be a wise thing to do since presumably bank can circumvent all these stupid "keep people in their homes" rules and sell unsecured debt pronto to debt collectors, at any point in time, at bank's own will.

EDIT: also, if HO defaults and owns loads of unsecured debt + very small secured, s/he may be easier to qualify for govt assistance=> bit more money to collect for bank :P

Edited by matroskin

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I read the first 3 pages of that story. Corking.

Basically they were using about 50% of their monthly income to pay the mortgage. 100% of the wife's earnings. She loses her job and they are up sh@t creek.

There's a lesson in there for us all....somewhere. :rolleyes:

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its such a souless place. no wonder it was used as a punishment.

+1

an old school friend of mine is moving out there on Monday, been gloating on FB for months now! Grass isn't always greener on the otherside of the world. In his case it'll have a brown hue.

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Have been meaning to do an Aus post for a while but have not go round to it. Basically, what has happened here is that the central bank has put up rates by a couple of percent and the property market has been stopped in its tracks and is now in decline.

I am slightly shocked by how quickly it has happened. We are talking about a brisk deflation rather than a plummet as at the moment the rest of the economy is fairly OK (with the exception of retail). It is all feeling very 2007 over here though…..

Bardon seems to have moved on. He stopped posting when the market decline became apparent. I am not sure I believed most of what he posted but if he was as leveraged as he made out he will be in trouble by now. Bummer.

I think he used to buy analysts’ reports from the likes of Australian Property Monitors and Terry Ryder. This would be like paying Inside Track for property advise – they have that kind of unbiased opinion of the market direction……

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The property market in Sydney is doing very well with rents ever inreasing and auction clearance rates also doing well. Asking prices are still being exceeded in Sydney however there is not the sense of urgency so much as was seen in the past. In my area on the Northern Beaches there are sold signs up everywhere. I am amazed myself that the market is still turning over high volumes of high end properties. A house on the Northern Beaches that would pass as a derelict monstrosity in the UK would sell for around $2.5m and with the Aussie dollar at record levels its going to be hard for any expats to rock up and buy anything other than a 1 bed flat.

I still think the smart money is on renting as it does beggar belief that so much money can be swilling around targetting property when the developed world is clogged up in massive debt.

On a good note, Australia is set to become one of the worlds largest exporters of energy in the next decade with vast reserves of Gas and Coal. We also have Zero unemployment which is effectively less than 5%. I guess they consider that 5% to be bludgers and not true job seekers.

Australia is certainly a country that has a lot of potential as it is under populated and has yet to rip itself apart with exploitation of natural resources. in addition its location is directly within the emerging economies as Europe and the US gradually disintigrate into lost civilisations torn apart by war and political corruption that has finally caught up with them all.

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The property market in Sydney is doing very well with rents ever inreasing and auction clearance rates also doing well. Asking prices are still being exceeded in Sydney however there is not the sense of urgency so much as was seen in the past. In my area on the Northern Beaches there are sold signs up everywhere. I am amazed myself that the market is still turning over high volumes of high end properties. A house on the Northern Beaches that would pass as a derelict monstrosity in the UK would sell for around $2.5m and with the Aussie dollar at record levels its going to be hard for any expats to rock up and buy anything other than a 1 bed flat.

I still think the smart money is on renting as it does beggar belief that so much money can be swilling around targetting property when the developed world is clogged up in massive debt.

On a good note, Australia is set to become one of the worlds largest exporters of energy in the next decade with vast reserves of Gas and Coal. We also have Zero unemployment which is effectively less than 5%. I guess they consider that 5% to be bludgers and not true job seekers.

Australia is certainly a country that has a lot of potential as it is under populated and has yet to rip itself apart with exploitation of natural resources. in addition its location is directly within the emerging economies as Europe and the US gradually disintigrate into lost civilisations torn apart by war and political corruption that has finally caught up with them all.

Um, yeah...... keep drinking the cool aid mate........

http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/more-property-price-falls-ahead-of-rba-interest-rate-decision-20111101-1mt5v.html

Australia is a lazy, uncompetitive, complacent country with a massively over inflated sense of entitlement and a world beating level of personal indebtedness. The only thing keeping the place ticking over is Chinese demand for iron and coal. However, the news out of China in terms of future demand for iron and coal ain’t great, which will be why the price of iron ore has fallen 33% in the last couple of months.

I reckon the economy will last another 12 to 24 months before they have a major slump. I will keep working here until that happens, and then bugger off when it does.

On the plus side, Aussies are pretty nice people and the weather is nice.

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Um, yeah...... keep drinking the cool aid mate........

http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/more-property-price-falls-ahead-of-rba-interest-rate-decision-20111101-1mt5v.html

Australia is a lazy, uncompetitive, complacent country with a massively over inflated sense of entitlement and a world beating level of personal indebtedness. The only thing keeping the place ticking over is Chinese demand for iron and coal. However, the news out of China in terms of future demand for iron and coal ain’t great, which will be why the price of iron ore has fallen 33% in the last couple of months.

I reckon the economy will last another 12 to 24 months before they have a major slump. I will keep working here until that happens, and then bugger off when it does.

On the plus side, Aussies are pretty nice people and the weather is nice.

Ditto. Just came back from 18 months working in the Chinese Colony....

Soul-less - slumping badly. Getting worse, quicker.

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Um, yeah...... keep drinking the cool aid mate........

http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/more-property-price-falls-ahead-of-rba-interest-rate-decision-20111101-1mt5v.html

Australia is a lazy, uncompetitive, complacent country with a massively over inflated sense of entitlement and a world beating level of personal indebtedness. The only thing keeping the place ticking over is Chinese demand for iron and coal. However, the news out of China in terms of future demand for iron and coal ain’t great, which will be why the price of iron ore has fallen 33% in the last couple of months.

I reckon the economy will last another 12 to 24 months before they have a major slump. I will keep working here until that happens, and then bugger off when it does.

On the plus side, Aussies are pretty nice people and the weather is nice.

I know a couple of Aussies in Swansea who are planning to sell up in 2 to 3 years - by which time they reckon they will have doubled the money they get on the house they bought in Mumbles - and move back to Oz because they think it will be in a slump by then, and will enable them to buy a property up cheap.

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I know a couple of Aussies in Swansea who are planning to sell up in 2 to 3 years - by which time they reckon they will have doubled the money they get on the house they bought in Mumbles - and move back to Oz because they think it will be in a slump by then, and will enable them to buy a property up cheap.

I'm moving out in February either Perth of Adelaide. Jobs market appears pretty robust compared to UK .

Wont be buying though- if its Adelaide will lodge with Aunt, Perth lodge with mates

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I'm moving out in February either Perth of Adelaide. Jobs market appears pretty robust compared to UK .

Wont be buying though- if its Adelaide will lodge with Aunt, Perth lodge with mates

You had enough of Saudi then?

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You had enough of Saudi then?

Yup. Whilst the money is good I was not recruited into the correct role. Asked for a transfer to a vacant position in another department (which had already said job was mine) which was then blocked by my slave masters such is the system here of company indentured labour.

I have an Australian Residency VISA so going spend the next few months applying for jobs at my current employers expense :lol: . If not sooner will be out by early February.

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Fellow HPCers -

do not write Australia off. It has a massive natural resources, a young population, lots of space. Yes, the housing market will crash once China takes a tumble, and yes private debt is large, but it will recover much faster than Europe will. For one thing, government debt is around 25% GDP, as opposed to the horrific 80-120 numbers elsewhere in the 'west'. For another thing, the Aussie society is still a lot more cohesive and unified - I helped out during the recent floods and was humbled by the sheer volume of 'mateness' around. I do not see that in the UK. They also have a manfacturing and agri base protected by tariffs (not called that, but they are there) and a voting population swinging towards protectionism as they see what lies in store if they follow the US model of outsourcing. Border protection is a massive issue - backdoor immigration of the scale seen in the UK would simply not be allowed, as one can debate issues openly without being called racist (although read about the Bolt case for a warning sign that the PC brigade are marching)

I think there will be a flattening/decline in HP in real terms for five year, the low point of which will be the time to buy, but over the next 30 years property will be a good bet. The pressure of educated western people seeking to flee somewhere civilised (i.e. no civil unrest) will grow and grow. I can see only continual low level civil war in Europe.

W

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Fellow HPCers -

do not write Australia off. It has a massive natural resources, a young population, lots of space. Yes, the housing market will crash once China takes a tumble, and yes private debt is large, but it will recover much faster than Europe will. For one thing, government debt is around 25% GDP, as opposed to the horrific 80-120 numbers elsewhere in the 'west'. For another thing, the Aussie society is still a lot more cohesive and unified - I helped out during the recent floods and was humbled by the sheer volume of 'mateness' around. I do not see that in the UK. They also have a manfacturing and agri base protected by tariffs (not called that, but they are there) and a voting population swinging towards protectionism as they see what lies in store if they follow the US model of outsourcing. Border protection is a massive issue - backdoor immigration of the scale seen in the UK would simply not be allowed, as one can debate issues openly without being called racist (although read about the Bolt case for a warning sign that the PC brigade are marching)

I think there will be a flattening/decline in HP in real terms for five year, the low point of which will be the time to buy, but over the next 30 years property will be a good bet. The pressure of educated western people seeking to flee somewhere civilised (i.e. no civil unrest) will grow and grow. I can see only continual low level civil war in Europe.

W

Why I applied some time back and got a residency VISA. In my lifetime far less chance of Australia becoming an Islamic Caliphate Paradise than the UK <_<

Edited by Kurt Barlow

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Yup. Whilst the money is good I was not recruited into the correct role. Asked for a transfer to a vacant position in another department (which had already said job was mine) which was then blocked by my slave masters such is the system here of company indentured labour.

I have an Australian Residency VISA so going spend the next few months applying for jobs at my current employers expense :lol: . If not sooner will be out by early February.

When I worked in the KSA I was told you arrive with 2 buckets. One for money and one for bullsh1t and whichever one fills up first, that's when you leave. :D

For me it was the bullsh1t bucket.

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When I worked in the KSA I was told you arrive with 2 buckets. One for money and one for bullsh1t and whichever one fills up first, that's when you leave. :D

For me it was the bullsh1t bucket.

:D heard that one too!

My BS bucket overflowed when I was handed a $1m a year contract to manage but I'm not allowed to see the contract which makes contract compliance monitoring a tad difficult. <_<

My ******** bucket filled up first but I still trousered about £65K in the first 12 months after expenses so the other bucket didn't do too badly either. :D

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:D heard that one too!

My BS bucket overflowed when I was handed a $1m a year contract to manage but I'm not allowed to see the contract which makes contract compliance monitoring a tad difficult. <_<

Ay, caramba! And as soon as anything goes wrong they'll chuck you in jail while they sort it out. :o

You are most definately right to bail out.

I lasted nearly 2 years, a great experience but I would never go back.

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Ay, caramba! And as soon as anything goes wrong they'll chuck you in jail while they sort it out. :o

You are most definately right to bail out.

I lasted nearly 2 years, a great experience but I would never go back.

I suspect the local bods behind this contract have some serious brown envelope action lined up. I'm spending the next two months applying for jobs, sorting out CPD for me professional memberships and I'm out. Even if I haven't got a job need to stay out of UK until April the 5th for tax purposes. I have family and friends in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane so plenty of couch surfing opportunities for the next 2 months! :D

I might consider going back to Qatar or the UAE but like you Saudi a once a life time opportunity.

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Fellow HPCers -

do not write Australia off. It has a massive natural resources, a young population, lots of space. Yes, the housing market will crash once China takes a tumble, and yes private debt is large, but it will recover much faster than Europe will. For one thing, government debt is around 25% GDP, as opposed to the horrific 80-120 numbers elsewhere in the 'west'. For another thing, the Aussie society is still a lot more cohesive and unified - I helped out during the recent floods and was humbled by the sheer volume of 'mateness' around. I do not see that in the UK. They also have a manfacturing and agri base protected by tariffs (not called that, but they are there) and a voting population swinging towards protectionism as they see what lies in store if they follow the US model of outsourcing. Border protection is a massive issue - backdoor immigration of the scale seen in the UK would simply not be allowed, as one can debate issues openly without being called racist (although read about the Bolt case for a warning sign that the PC brigade are marching)

I think there will be a flattening/decline in HP in real terms for five year, the low point of which will be the time to buy, but over the next 30 years property will be a good bet. The pressure of educated western people seeking to flee somewhere civilised (i.e. no civil unrest) will grow and grow. I can see only continual low level civil war in Europe.

W

Yes, anyone reading this please do follow up on Bolt's conviction. It was hardly a PC overreaction. If the crap he was spouting hadn't gone unchallenged, I would have been concerned for this country's soul.

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I know a couple of Aussies in Swansea who are planning to sell up in 2 to 3 years - by which time they reckon they will have doubled the money they get on the house they bought in Mumbles - and move back to Oz because they think it will be in a slump by then, and will enable them to buy a property up cheap.

If they had this plan in 2004 I would have been impressed.

Fellow HPCers -

do not write Australia off. It has a massive natural resources, a young population, lots of space. W

The problem is most of the space is useless - in terms of 'western' conurbations etc..

What Oz does not have is a huge water system through the centre like the US does. Without that it will always be a small country in a big land.

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Fellow HPCers -

do not write Australia off. It has a massive natural resources, a young population, lots of space. Yes, the housing market will crash once China takes a tumble, and yes private debt is large, but it will recover much faster than Europe will. For one thing, government debt is around 25% GDP, as opposed to the horrific 80-120 numbers elsewhere in the 'west'. For another thing, the Aussie society is still a lot more cohesive and unified - I helped out during the recent floods and was humbled by the sheer volume of 'mateness' around. I do not see that in the UK. They also have a manfacturing and agri base protected by tariffs (not called that, but they are there) and a voting population swinging towards protectionism as they see what lies in store if they follow the US model of outsourcing. Border protection is a massive issue - backdoor immigration of the scale seen in the UK would simply not be allowed, as one can debate issues openly without being called racist (although read about the Bolt case for a warning sign that the PC brigade are marching)

I think there will be a flattening/decline in HP in real terms for five year, the low point of which will be the time to buy, but over the next 30 years property will be a good bet. The pressure of educated western people seeking to flee somewhere civilised (i.e. no civil unrest) will grow and grow. I can see only continual low level civil war in Europe.

W

Hmmm. I think that Australia’s Achilles heel is the amount of bank lending that is secured against property. The Big 4 banks loan books are hugely biased towards property, and they are heavily dependent on the international money markets for funding. Once the Aussie HPC picks up speed they are not going to be able to secure that international funding at a reasonable price. And then pop goes the banking system in the time honored Lehmans/RBS/Lloyd/Northern Rock/AIB etc fashion. The Aussie government will then step in and bail out the banks by buying their debt. And all of a sudden the countries debt as a percentage of GDP will start to look like the rest of the overdebted western world.

In addition, a huge chuck of the economy is built around servicing the housing industry. Every third shop you stroll past sells light fittings/sofas/soft furnishings and whatnot. These places will go to the wall. Millions of people are employed in residential construction (building the huge oversupply of property that is just about to hit the market). They will lose their jobs. When the economy starts contracting, people who are working over here on a temporary basis (like myself) will start to leave, either by choice or ‘force’ (my visa states that if I lose my current job I have 30 days to either find a new visa sponsor or leave the country). This will lead to a huge downturn in demand, especially in the rental sector. Then you have to consider that most Aussie property investors are ‘negatively geared’. In a nutshell, this means that they receive less rent per month than the mortgages on their ‘investment properties’ cost. This is a tax dodge, but it will not help them out once they start having voids.

The RBA will then start frantically lowering the interest rates. This will make Australia less attractive to invest in from an overseas perspective, thus removing another crutch from this debt dependent country.

And the cycle goes on……

That said, this country has done some sensible things. Like ‘forcing’ people to invest in their pension. That is to be applauded. But on the flip side there are massive problems with productivity – the only thing that Australia is competitive in is mining. And that is not because they are particularly good at mining, it is just because there are a lot of resources here and it is close to China. If China goes pop then this place is screwed.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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