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Economy Grew Just 0.1 Percent In Q2 - Niesr Thinktank

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/07/uk-britain-economy-niesr-idUKTRE7663IC20110707

The economic growth slowed to just 0.1 percent in the second quarter of this year, a leading thinktank said on Thursday, suggesting the recovery has all but ground to a halt.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose former head Martin Weale sits on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, acknowledged that several one-off events had depressed output over the period.

But it said that even without these factors -- which include an extra public holiday to celebrate the royal wedding, and supply disruption after Japan's devastating March earthquake and tsunami -- momentum was weak.

"These figures do not provide a picture of economic growth that would support a tightening of monetary policy at this juncture," it said.

Clearly although rampant inflation isn't going to provide the stability for economic growth either.

Still this is positive and that's all that matters although haven't there previous predictions been a bit poor?

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they should just accept we're going to go through a rough patch and printing silly money isnt going to fix anything-

but it wont happen- we'll get high inflation and then we're screwed

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So if correct this will be 0.1 % growth over the last 3 quarters

And they're blaming the Royal Wedding. When first announced it was supposed to provide a big boost to the economy

Edited by oldsport

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they should just accept we're going to go through a rough patch and printing silly money isnt going to fix anything-

but it wont happen- we'll get high inflation and then we're screwed

That sounds about right. But what happens after that? Serious hiking and a decent crash or low rates and high inflation?

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The early forecasts of growth are usually so wrong it's not worth bothering with.

The UK usually up's it latter and the US revises down.

I think around 0.4-0.5%. Things are picking up in industry.

They were spot on last quarter if I remember rightly.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/07/uk-britain-economy-niesr-idUKTRE7663IC20110707

Clearly although rampant inflation isn't going to provide the stability for economic growth either.

Still this is positive and that's all that matters although haven't there previous predictions been a bit poor?

The problem is it's inflation that's damaging growth! Catch 22 raise rates and destroy demand, don't raise and destroy demand. Personally I think slightly high rates are less damaging than the inflation we currently have.

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That sounds about right. But what happens after that? Serious hiking and a decent crash or low rates and high inflation?...

...And a decent crash

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The problem is it's inflation that's damaging growth! Catch 22 raise rates and destroy demand, don't raise and destroy demand. Personally I think slightly high rates are less damaging than the inflation we currently have.

Growth will be killed for longer with inflation, increasing rates is the least bad option. The problem is the entire financial system is too weak and that would be killed.

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Growth will be killed for longer with inflation, increasing rates is the least bad option. The problem is the entire financial system is too weak and that would be killed.

Along with Mervs pension.

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The government cant sustain too many quarters without growth. Their plans are built on their being growth of some sort. They need it to pay pensions where are now guaranteed to grow above the rate of inflation. Public service pay will too, despite their best efforts. If that happens, private sector pay goes backwards, discouraging people from working in the very sector that provides all of the growth.

And with no growth, the effects of the tax rises become unravelled very quickly indeed. We have seen that over the last two months as the Government's borrowing doesnt seem to be reducing even with the tax rises and so say HB cuts. Luckily for the government, interest rates have remained very low. Not sure how long that can continue. As Portugal found out this week, when they rise, they spiral out of control very quickly.

State default full speed ahead.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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