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Not understanding this one:

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000080&S=L&O=A

350k, with 50k/year rent guaranteed? Or am I missing something?

Why/how could a subway in Cork City pay 50k/year rent?

The tenant is a sandwich shop called Subway and the long leasehold is sold subject to their occupational lease.

Yield around 14% looks jolly high., Interested to see what it fetches.

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9 out of the first 10 are repossessions or from receivers! B)

Still ridiculously overpriced though.

98% sold over guide in the last auction, so I would suggest that your assessment is wrong

tim

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Not understanding this one:

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000080&S=L&O=A

350k, with 50k/year rent guaranteed? Or am I missing something?

Why/how could a subway in Cork City pay 50k/year rent?

because Subway isn't paying the rent - a franchisee's limited company is.

"Lee Sub Co Ltd" - presumably he's not that good for the money, or they don't think he will be.

Without a guarantee backed by a bank (I'd not even take it from Subway, with them being a US LLC, so very difficult to enforce against in Ireland and costly in the US), it's how good you think his business is.

I suspect the lease is 'defective' in its drafting for today's reality..... many many Irish commercial leases are - they only ever foresaw rents going up and away and have few break clauses in, and the landlords didn't have the right to procure guarantees. Even trying to securitise the revenues will mean a hefty discount and the landlord would be expected to indemnify the purchaser thereof (unless the discount really is deep).

I think what it says is either, it's a teaser price to drum up interest or that no-one who looks at the documents believes the company will be good for its obligations.

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For those who aren't aware of it, Ireland's Central Statistics Office started publishing a residential property price index in May (it provides data from the beginning of 2005). The latest release (for May 2011, published 22 June) is here (PDF).

From the report:

"House Prices in Dublin are almost 46% lower than at their highest level in early

2007. Apartments in Dublin are 53% lower than they were in February 2007. The

fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at

38%. Overall, the national index is 41% lower than its highest level in 2007."

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cheers FT.any views on it's strengths and weaknesses ie is it rather akin to the land reg data we get here?

also any chance of updating the gilts thread with an overview sometime in the near future from your point of view?

I don't know that much about it, but Shotoflight's link above seems informative.

Re the gilts thread: I haven't been adding to this because I regard the UK gilts market as effectively a manipulated one now. I have got some thoughts (and data) on why we're hearing rumblings from the BoE on the possible need for another round of QE, and the current situation is becoming fairly analogous to the period leading up to QE1 in 2009. However I don't feel much motivation to comment on something that has become such an obvious charade. It's like the old lawyer joke:

Q. How can you tell when a Bank of England official is lying?

A. His lips are moving.

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Brief results/comment. 10 million Euro in boom, goes for 2.3 million Euro

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/trophy-home-auctioned-for-23m-euro-16020774.html

Stephen McCarthy, of estate agents Space, which co-hosted the sale with Allsop, said its second such auction showed there was a market for property if it was at the right price.

He said: "Clearly if you get people in a room and you offer something in a transparent way, that is the price today. But I wouldn't be arrogant enough to think that that is the bottom (of the market). We're all hopeful it is but I have no idea."

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This evening on Today FM (commercial radio station) Karl Dieter (reputable pundit and mortgage broker) mentioned that in the first quarter of this year mortgage lending in Ireland was at 1971 levels.

Bless us, but we know how to f**k up royally.

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The difference with Ireland to the UK is that rent is deflating as well as salaries over there.

When I was over Dublin my rent went from 1400€ a month to €1000. Now around 850-900€. Salaries were cut on average 10-20%.

Real deflation creating real nominal falls.

Edited by ringledman

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The difference with Ireland to the UK is that rent is deflating as well as salaries over there.

When I was over Dublin my rent went from 1400€ a month to €1000. Now around 850-900€. Salaries were cut on average 10-20%.

Real deflation creating real nominal falls.

They have had things like public sector pay cuts whereas over here we have printed money to make every one pay, via higher living costs, to keep those salaries inflated.

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http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=39373

A poster on property pin has tabulated the auction sale prices against the peak of the boom asking prices. Very impressive price drops. Coming soon to a town near you I hope.

The difference you dont realise is that they have deflation (massive deflation). We have inflation.

The first creates nominal crashes the second real term crashes.

Prices will stagnate as much as fall here. I believe we will have nominal falls but 50% off nominally across the board, forget it.

The crash will be long and slow, 10-20% off nominally over 5 years and another 20-30% off through inflation eroding values.

Edited by ringledman

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They have had things like public sector pay cuts whereas over here we have printed money to make every one pay, via higher living costs, to keep those salaries inflated.

Their private sector professionals took a 10-20% salary cut also. Saw it happen to many private companies in 2009.

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The difference you dont realise is that they have deflation (massive deflation). We have inflation.

The first creates nominal crashes the second real term crashes.

Prices will stagnate as much as fall here. I believe we will have nominal falls but 50% off nominally across the board, forget it.

The crash will be long and slow, 10-20% off nominally over 5 years and another 20-30% off through inflation eroding values.

That is what happened in the 1970s. After the 1970-74 boom small nominal price falls were made large actual falls by double didget inflation. Inflation now is too high but much lower than the 20% plus we saw in the 70s. I think we have a situation in this matter which is between the Irish and the UK 1070s scenario. Yes there will be substantial nominal falls but not as great as there would be in a non inflationary enviroment.

Still, a man can hope and dream can't he.

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9 out of the first 10 are repossessions or from receivers! B)

Still ridiculously overpriced though.

Watching news Thursday night were the irish were saying a lot of prices have dropped 45%.?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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