Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Unsafe As Houses

Halifax House Price Index Out Tomorrow Monrning

Recommended Posts

Will we be pleased with a small fall, delighted with a big(ish) fall or angry and/or despondent with a rise?

All revealed tomorrow at 8am apparently.

If you want to play the guessing game I'll go with -0.4$ - but I havent guessed right once. h

Edited by Unsafe As Houses

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will we be pleased with a small fall, delighted with a big(ish) fall or angry and/or despondent with a rise?

All revealed tomorrow at 8am apparently.

If you want to play the guessing game I'll go with -0.4$ - but I havent guessed right once. h

I'll go for: London and the SE up; everywhere else in the UK down. National figure of -0.3 MoM. Perhaps -0.4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Discussions on another thread re the increasing Nationwide figures focused on whether the Halifax northern bias vs the Nationwide southern one was becoming more prominent re the rises in London. For that reason, I'm more optimistic we'll get a fall greater than 0.5%. The non seasonal adjustment will however be a larger fall and we will hopefully breach the 160K figure (finally!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why do we care about VI indexes? We all know where this floater will wash up, but feel the need for the public to be informed on a monthly basis by a perceived unbiased source to reassure ourselves when they report a fall. Well I for one couldn't give a shyte about indexes anymore, in fact, I want them to lie as much as possible and keep the floating illusion going, so when this mother of crashes gathers pace, it happens at such speed, all those lying self certifying debt consumers commence to shyte from the correct orifice, rather than flow from the mouths of their smug faces!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever it is, I'm sure it will be a fix. How much worse does the UK economy have to get before people here wake up to the fools paradise they are living in? Inflation UP, take home pay DOWN, pay rises NOT keeping up. The outlook is not good either with Greece/Ireland/Spain and Eurozone collapse and our record national debt ballooning from paying to bail out the Eurozone or giving it in foreign aid!

I think we need a 2007 trigger again. What and when will it be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever it is, I'm sure it will be a fix. How much worse does the UK economy have to get before people here wake up to the fools paradise they are living in? Inflation UP, take home pay DOWN, pay rises NOT keeping up. The outlook is not good either with Greece/Ireland/Spain and Eurozone collapse and our record national debt ballooning from paying to bail out the Eurozone or giving it in foreign aid!

I think we need a 2007 trigger again. What and when will it be?

It's based on actual mortgages taken and does not take into account the total decrease in the volume. What is left of the volume is of a higher quality so inevitably prices will be very sticky. I'm not sure why people even follow this indicator as a significant standalone item. Yes it has some value but only in a wider context.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's based on actual mortgages taken and does not take into account the total decrease in the volume. What is left of the volume is of a higher quality so inevitably prices will be very sticky. I'm not sure why people even follow this indicator as a significant standalone item. Yes it has some value but only in a wider context.

I've been thinking along the same lines myself - if halliwide have begun to favour giving mortgages for higher value homes this would counteract any fall in house prices picked up by their indexes. No?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been thinking along the same lines myself - if halliwide have begun to favour giving mortgages for higher value homes this would counteract any fall in house prices picked up by their indexes. No?

It's not a deliberate bias. The lower classes are having their jobs taken by technology and globalisation. The greater complexity requires a highly educated workforce. This is eroding jobs at the bottom and rewarding those nearer the top of the tree. Hence for top earners there is no real recession and they are still buying and selling houses. Therefore the liquidity of the more expensive houses has dropped off less. The bottom of the market has dropped off a lot. I presume they use the arithmetic mean and so prices will rise, if you agree with the former logic.

So in part houses that top earners can afford (who are already on the ladder) are liquid. This doesn't solve the fact that there are no new entrants to the market as prices are detached from wages, but it does lessen the decline of the index. This doesn't mean that they have not fallen in price, as that is quite a different calculation, and one that they would never provide data on.

I'd imagine if there comes a time when lots of cheaper houses are traded due to some outside force (inflation?) you could see a big swing. In fact banks are doing pretend-and-extend on such mortgages precisely because they do not want to assume the loss on their books. Really it's like a game of tetris where you are above halfway. Yes you can, if you are quick, slot in a few more blocks, but you know you are ******ed.

None of this solves the fact that the prior generation have totally messed up our prospects and we are sleep-walking towards a real demographic mess. It's like the sun stopping shining. For 4 minutes you will continue to do something trivial like cleaning your teeth, but the problem has already happened and all the scurrying about during that 4 minutes won't make a jot of difference. Not that our situation is that dire - it's just an analogy of an event taking time to impact on people who have no idea there is a very big problem :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My guess

Seasonally adjusted -0.5

Non seasonally adjusted +0.1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been thinking along the same lines myself - if halliwide have begun to favour giving mortgages for higher value homes this would counteract any fall in house prices picked up by their indexes. No?

Don't they mix adjust the figure to try to take that sort of thing into account?

I'll guess at a modest -0.5%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not a deliberate bias. The lower classes are having their jobs taken by technology and globalisation. The greater complexity requires a highly educated workforce. This is eroding jobs at the bottom and rewarding those nearer the top of the tree. Hence for top earners there is no real recession and they are still buying and selling houses. Therefore the liquidity of the more expensive houses has dropped off less. The bottom of the market has dropped off a lot. I presume they use the arithmetic mean and so prices will rise, if you agree with the former logic.

So in part houses that top earners can afford (who are already on the ladder) are liquid. This doesn't solve the fact that there are no new entrants to the market as prices are detached from wages, but it does lessen the decline of the index. This doesn't mean that they have not fallen in price, as that is quite a different calculation, and one that they would never provide data on.

I'd imagine if there comes a time when lots of cheaper houses are traded due to some outside force (inflation?) you could see a big swing. In fact banks are doing pretend-and-extend on such mortgages precisely because they do not want to assume the loss on their books. Really it's like a game of tetris where you are above halfway. Yes you can, if you are quick, slot in a few more blocks, but you know you are ******ed.

None of this solves the fact that the prior generation have totally messed up our prospects and we are sleep-walking towards a real demographic mess. It's like the sun stopping shining. For 4 minutes you will continue to do something trivial like cleaning your teeth, but the problem has already happened and all the scurrying about during that 4 minutes won't make a jot of difference. Not that our situation is that dire - it's just an analogy of an event taking time to impact on people who have no idea there is a very big problem :-)

Good post. The problem is structural and it will surface.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will we be pleased with a small fall, delighted with a big(ish) fall or angry and/or despondent with a rise?

All revealed tomorrow at 8am apparently.

If you want to play the guessing game I'll go with -0.4$ - but I havent guessed right once. h

I am think it will be a modest decline of 0.1% for the month. London on up 0.2%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.