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Builders Face Two Years Of Decline

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8614473/Builders-face-two-years-of-decline.html

Output this year will decline by 0.5pc, followed by a greater drop of 2.8pc in 2012, on the back of severe cuts to state-funded projects. There will be growth of 0.2pc in 2013, before rising to 3.4pc in 2014, according to the latest forecasts by the Construction Products Association.

Public housing orders are expected to fall by 39pc in the next three years, while road construction is set to halve.

The decline will be partially offset by a 50pc rise in office building over five years, centred on London, and a three-fold increase in construction for the energy industry by 2015.

Output in the private housing sector is forecast to rise by 62pc by 2013 but is likely to remain below pre-recession levels by 2015.

Does London need more offices?

Looks like a constructionless recovery.

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This is very optimistic as the house building industry is in a worse hole than ever at the moment .

Private housing has to meet regulations over building regs by 2012 -Code Level 4 ,which costs more than building today and then Code Level 6 by 2016.

To meet Code Level Six this will increase the cost of building by about 20% on todays prices.

Meaning that house prices must rise by 20% to match todays output.

House builders still in business are not bothering as they do not see a 20% rise by 2016. Even if this did happen it would mean construction would be in the same dire situation as today. So what would the point be ?

Construction cannot get us out of this recession it has to be lead by another sector as construction has been taxed to death and many local authorities have adopted a 20 year plan based around taxing developers.

The only houses built in the past few years were built on "old" planning consents (pre Code For Sustainable Homes). These are now built out or have expired.

The real mess in the construction industry started about 4 months ago and will take a while to reach the media.

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This is very optimistic as the house building industry is in a worse hole than ever at the moment .

Private housing has to meet regulations over building regs by 2012 -Code Level 4 ,which costs more than building today and then Code Level 6 by 2016.

To meet Code Level Six this will increase the cost of building by about 20% on todays prices.

Meaning that house prices must rise by 20% to match todays output.

House builders still in business are not bothering as they do not see a 20% rise by 2016. Even if this did happen it would mean construction would be in the same dire situation as today. So what would the point be ?

Construction cannot get us out of this recession it has to be lead by another sector as construction has been taxed to death and many local authorities have adopted a 20 year plan based around taxing developers.

The only houses built in the past few years were built on "old" planning consents (pre Code For Sustainable Homes). These are now built out or have expired.

The real mess in the construction industry started about 4 months ago and will take a while to reach the media.

Simple, the land banking companies (they are not really builders at all) can stop pissing the money away on the land price element to make up the shortfall.

Having said that I suspect that all these new codes will offer very little gain for the consumer.

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This is very optimistic as the house building industry is in a worse hole than ever at the moment .

Private housing has to meet regulations over building regs by 2012 -Code Level 4 ,which costs more than building today and then Code Level 6 by 2016.

To meet Code Level Six this will increase the cost of building by about 20% on todays prices.

Meaning that house prices must rise by 20% to match todays output.

What are the costly changes that have to be made in the building regs?

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The real mess started around 2008 Q3, between then and now companies have survived by franticly laying staff off while the last few projects rolled out. Now private work is dead, and the public sector departments are screwing engineering firms over moving goal posts to entrench their own jobsworth position.

The going rate for a full time CAD Technician stands at 21k down form 30-33k. London is better but the travel costs make it less than working locally. For contractors most are refusing to work for £10-11 hr, They have left the sector as the typical contract is 2 weeks to 3 months, its just easier and safer to take a £7 job without the hassles/costs of running a ltd company.

.

Friend of a friend works installing hard landscape in towns, granite setts, surface drainage now down to £11 hr, thinking of going back to cash in hand gardening.

Oh as a side note the second hand car market is collapsing for the retail car trader, bro works for a large car auction firm sales down big style, with a huge influx of prestige cars being offloaded. 2 years ago that industry was trading very well indeed.

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What are the costly changes that have to be made in the building regs?

I'm not in the industry, but from wikipedia it all seems very vague. My link.

The only thing that stood out was that a code 6 house is meant to be '100% more thermally efficient', i.e. twice as insulated as a Code 3 house. I have no idea what the actually means in terms of the thickness of insulation needed, or the type of insulation, what sort of windows are ok, how big they can be, or even the basic construction. I guess the industry has the same problem and trying to figure it out whilst also losing money hand over fist is not ideal.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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