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I'm in Sydney at the moment. I spent yesterday viewing about 12 homes on a saturday open to all viewing sort of thing. It's an Australian cultural thing, the saturday & wednesday open days, saves time & you get to see more houses that way.

Most agents who are supervising the houses whilst people are in viewing made comments to me like 'we've had 3 or 4 offers, but not high enough to satisfy the vendors yet', typical agent speak to get people motivated.

But 1 agent struck me as very honest. His comments 'its a tough market, slower than I've seen it for a long time. We've had a few auctions with no bids at all. These days if I'm holding an auction & I have 2 bidders, the vendor is angry with me for not attracting interest, but I feel quite lucky to have 2 bidders because bidding wars are rare now'.

But as with the UK, the feeling I get from the agents is that most vendors won't consider low offers.

Another thing I noticed was how keen a few of them were to get my details when I told them I lived in Europe. There's this local idea here that expats have loads to spend on their housing because they've made a fortune in America or Europe.

So a couple reckon they'll be taking me around all their places next week (even though I'm just looking).

Smacks of desperation anyway.....

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Another thing I noticed was how keen a few of them were to get my details when I told them I lived in Europe. There's this local idea here that expats have loads to spend on their housing because they've made a fortune in America or Europe

Surely the Aussies are not an insular Nation.

Mind you if they read the article referring to the comments by the RBA then smacks of desperation will be the order of the day.

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Charlie old chap. Sorry to be pedantic, particualtly at this time of night, but strictly and literally the Aussies are an "insular nation" (ignoring Tasmania of course).

Still take your point aboslutely. In my experience, for what its worth, where London leads the UK up or down economically speaking, so Australia seems to lead the rest of the world.

Must be something to do with the sun rising there first.

It is late on a Saturday night, so I hope no-one expects my ususal reasoned debate...?

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But as with the UK, the feeling I get from the agents is that most vendors won't consider low offers.

It doesn't appear that the Ozzie economy has deteriorated enough to warrant forced sales yet.

It does look like the global commodities boom is helping to keep the place afloat.

England doesn't have such valuable rocks and won't share the pleasure.

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Of course sellers dont want to drop their prices - who would? The point is that the recession hasnt really started to bite yet so there are few sellers desperate to sell. That will change.

I was is Oz a month ago staying in Venus Bay, a peninsular of holiday homes 2 hours south-east of Melbourne. Land prices there have shot up from $15k to $80k in 4 years, some plots of 500 sq m were going for $120k. But nothing's selling. On Venus Bay 1st Estate there were about 200 properties for sale compared to about 40 when I was last there 2 years ago, but although lots of sellers are selling 'cos they want to cash in on the rises, very few sellers are desperate to sell. Again, as the recession starts to bite, that will change.

It's the same old cycle all over again. In '89 it was the same. There's nothing remarkable about it.

Hold on to your hats folks!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Charlie old chap. Sorry to be pedantic, particualtly at this time of night, but strictly and literally the Aussies are an "insular nation" (ignoring Tasmania of course).

No problem, always happy to learn, being one of life`s eternal students <_<

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The Uk is behind Oz, so you are getting a glimpse of the future

Yes by about 11 hours I understand and America in turn between 5 and 9 behind us depending on whether east or west coast................

:P

Seriously though, how far ahead would you say they are compared to us 6mths? 12?

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Australia is 7 to 8 years ahead of the UK which is why you aren't seeing an HPC in the UK.

As I've consistently said for a long time, look to the last property slow-down in Aus to see what the UK will go like this time. Answer: slow market,soft prices for a while, but no crash.

A big difference that strikes me with Aus/UK is that Australia has stuff that people want like commodities. Another point could be that many Australians do go overseas earn some money and then take it back, I don't know for sure but I would guess that most Ex Pats in the UK don't come back in a hurry.

There are also other things that, IMO, make Australia a good bet for the future. It has a younger population than the UK and immigration is stacked in favour of the young.

Haven't been there for a few years but I've always thought Aus was a bit of a developing country but had stacks and stacks of goodies in store for the future.

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Australia is 7 to 8 years ahead of the UK which is why you aren't seeing an HPC in the UK.

You're talking in terms of tenancy legislation. We're talking in terms of the economic cycle.

As I've consistently said for a long time, look to the last property slow-down in Aus to see what the UK will go like this time. Answer: slow market,soft prices for a while, but no crash.

TTRTR, I don't think too many people would disagree if I said that a "crash" by our definition would be 30% down in nominal prices over 5 years.

If there are 15% falls in Sydney from the peak, Australia is already well into the crash.

Here's your chance to slip over into the "bear" camp without losing face.

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Australia is 7 to 8 years ahead of the UK which is why you aren't seeing an HPC in the UK.

As I've consistently said for a long time, look to the last property slow-down in Aus to see what the UK will go like this time. Answer: slow market,soft prices for a while, but no crash.

You cant make too direct a comparison between the Aus and UK property market. UK prices have risen nearly twice as much as Aus in the last 5 years, so they've got a lot further to fall. The Aus market may get away wih a 'soft landing', but the UK wont.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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