Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

guitarman001

References To Germany

Recommended Posts

Anybody noticed an increasing number of comments on the BBC about following Germany's lead when it comes to the economy - last night there was mention of their manufacturing and how should be doing more. This morning there was talk about their pensions and elderly care and how their contributions are set up. And on QT (yes, I caught a snippet, but that is all!) some guy in the audience went on at length about how they set themselves up better financially, especially with regard to pensions. Last time I checked the tax rate was high but not as many stealth taxes - so I'd probably be on the same wage as I am here... but then hopefully I'd be in a better state of affairs if I were to retire there... any youngsters here fancy staying around here to see what retirement will be like in 40 years?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-your-money-13391090

'Here are the facts: Germany grew more slowly than the UK for most of the first years of this century, with consumption growing, on average, by just 1% a year. As I have mentioned before, in terms of per capita GDP, Britain actually saw more growth in living standards, on average between 1998 and 2010 than Germany, and that's including the recession.

But with its slower growth, Germany also accomplished a lot of "roof-mending" and reforms to its economy that have left it well prepared for a strong recovery now. It did not build up the kind of imbalances in public and private lending that we did in the UK. And they did not rely on financial services for an increasingly large share of their growth (quite how large having been underlined in some interesting analysis in the FT this week.) By squeezing real wages in manufacturing, they actually enabled their world trade share to rise slightly, when it was falling for nearly every other country in Europe - catastrophically so, in the case of Greece and Portugal. '

Hmm, perhaps our growth was just bullsh!t based on rising asset prices, debt and cheap labour.... d'oh.

Also just got this anecdotal from a forum:

'As an example, assuming you work from the age of 25 to 65, with an average yearly salary of €50k, your monthly pension benefits will be about €800 assuming you pay 10% of gross and your employer matches, which is the norm.'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody noticed an increasing number of comments on the BBC about following Germany's lead when it comes to the economy

Whilst the Germans just do a much better and solid job of goverment and social and economic policy than we do and are in general a much more socially cohesive bunch and traditionally a more industrious people than we are, they are suffering similar symptoms of social and economic decay that we are facing in this country.

I am presently reading a book called 'Deutschland schafft sich ab' (Germany abolishes itself) by Thilo Sarrizin, which reads pretty much like a 400 page rant on HPC. In the 40 odd pages I have read so far, Sarrazin highlights the fact that Germany's demographics are spelling economic disaster a few years down the line with regards to the decreasing birth rate that will soon result in a population with a pensioner majority with all the state benefits, health and social care costs that pensioners consume. He combines this with the increasing threat of globalisation to the standard of living and wages (real wages have remained static in Germany since 1990) that Germans have come to expect/demand. Regarding the demographics, he also highlights the fact it is generally only the more 'intelligent' women who are not breeding, whereas the least intelligent, least educated members of German society are breeding like rabbits. Included in the 'fast breeding' category are Germany's largest immigrant ethnic group (the Turks), who have not integrated well into German society resulting in ever-increasing sectarian divides, and whose children acheive statistically much lower grades in school than either other enthnic minorities or their native German counterparts. He claims that the mismanaged multi-culturalism and the emergence of an underclass are the main reason behind the rapid decline in the standards of German education, which indicates that Germany faces dire social and economic problems in the years ahead.

I think similiar broad social and economic problems are facing all the developed western nations, which in turn are each affected slighlty differently due to respective past development history.

I think that Germany is in a better position than we are, but all in all it is faced with the same sorts of problems and it is also looking all downhill for them in the next few decades.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are all in the same cesspit filled to the brim with turds.

While some countries are only ankle deep other countries are waist deep.

While other countries are about to dissappear under the surface.

The trend of all nations though is that they are all sinking due to one pressure or another.

So while you can jump to another less sinking nation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The conditions to bring about a resurgence to 1930's politics in Germany are simmering away nicely.

Can we ever rule something like that ever happening again? I don't think so, sooner or later once things get bad enough people will rise up.

In the meantime the politico's move to try and integrate immigrant populations and are failing miserably. Could be a style of NI type sectarianism will break out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst the Germans just do a much better and solid job of goverment and social and economic policy than we do and are in general a much more socially cohesive bunch and traditionally a more industrious people than we are, they are suffering similar symptoms of social and economic decay that we are facing in this country.

I am presently reading a book called 'Deutschland schafft sich ab' (Germany abolishes itself) by Thilo Sarrizin, which reads pretty much like a 400 page rant on HPC. In the 40 odd pages I have read so far, Sarrazin highlights the fact that Germany's demographics are spelling economic disaster a few years down the line with regards to the decreasing birth rate that will soon result in a population with a pensioner majority with all the state benefits, health and social care costs that pensioners consume. He combines this with the increasing threat of globalisation to the standard of living and wages (real wages have remained static in Germany since 1990) that Germans have come to expect/demand. Regarding the demographics, he also highlights the fact it is generally only the more 'intelligent' women who are not breeding, whereas the least intelligent, least educated members of German society are breeding like rabbits. Included in the 'fast breeding' category are Germany's largest immigrant ethnic group (the Turks), who have not integrated well into German society resulting in ever-increasing sectarian divides, and whose children acheive statistically much lower grades in school than either other enthnic minorities or their native German counterparts. He claims that the mismanaged multi-culturalism and the emergence of an underclass are the main reason behind the rapid decline in the standards of German education, which indicates that Germany faces dire social and economic problems in the years ahead.

I think similiar broad social and economic problems are facing all the developed western nations, which in turn are each affected slighlty differently due to respective past development history.

I think that Germany is in a better position than we are, but all in all it is faced with the same sorts of problems and it is also looking all downhill for them in the next few decades.

Germany is where it is in the world because of their nationalism, their ingenuity, and self centric ideology.

Name me a time in modern history where they haven't been at the forefront of industrialism and leading the market in manufacturing technology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Germany is where it is in the world because of their nationalism, their ingenuity, and self centric ideology.

Name me a time in modern history where they haven't been at the forefront of industrialism and leading the market in manufacturing technology.

Anytime previous to 150 years ago! (oh yeah, and Germany never actually existed in a nation state form prior to Bismarck's Reich).

The first country to be industrialised was Britain, with the transformation powered by the requirements of its trading empire. All the early industrial engineering break throughs and pioneering science also came out of the British Isles.

I would also add that 'nationalism' is a dirty word in Germany and anyone who likes to wave national flags around outwith World Cup time would be viewed with a lot of suspicion, criticism, and ultimately social suppresion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just see it as the story of the Tortoise and the Hare, germany and us.

How this came about is pretty simple imo. Germans remember directly or through parents the horrors of Hyperinflation, and have been alert to inflation ever since. Obviously this means slower 'growth' (read debt financed spending) when govt lies about inflation, and the markets believe them (as in 2000-2007 UK), but ultimately a more sound, balanced, sustainable economy.

ie

Inflation 1960-73

UK 5%

Germany 3%

1973-81

UK 15%

Germany 5%

80-90

UK 6%

Germany 3%

90-01

UK 3%

Germany 3%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.