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rantnrave

Inflation Adjusted House Prices

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Updated today. Interesting to see that in real terms we are now over 20% below the peak in less than four years. Alas, in the last couple of years pay rises haven't risen with inflation though. As you can see, this figure was pushing 25% until Nationwide's recent mini rally over the last few months. We are also in real terms below the pre-deadcat bounce lows and back to circa Q3 2003 prices.

EDIT: Also just noticed that some of the strongest gains Nationwide records each year is usually between Q1 and Q2. Perhaps they need to seasonally adjust more on that? It does however suggest that their recent uptick in prices will be shortlived.

Nominal Price / Real Price / 2.9% Trend

2000 Q1 £77,698 £109,065 £128,436

2000 Q2 £81,202 £111,913 £129,351

2000 Q3 £80,935 £111,350 £130,273

2000 Q4 £81,628 £111,585 £131,201

2001 Q1 £83,976 £114,928 £132,136

2001 Q2 £87,638 £118,491 £133,077

2001 Q3 £91,049 £123,032 £134,025

2001 Q4 £92,533 £125,181 £134,980

2002 Q1 £95,356 £128,926 £135,942

2002 Q2 £103,501 £138,269 £136,911

2002 Q3 £110,830 £147,557 £137,886

2002 Q4 £115,940 £152,974 £138,869

2003 Q1 £119,938 £157,366 £139,858

2003 Q2 £125,382 £162,604 £140,855

2003 Q3 £129,761 £167,820 £141,858

2003 Q4 £133,903 £172,135 £142,869

2004 Q1 £139,027 £177,847 £143,887

2004 Q2 £148,462 £187,368 £144,912

2004 Q3 £153,482 £192,567 £145,945

2004 Q4 £152,464 £189,470 £146,985

2005 Q1 £152,790 £189,374 £148,032

2005 Q2 £157,494 £192,967 £149,087

2005 Q3 £157,627 £192,428 £150,149

2005 Q4 £157,387 £191,044 £151,219

2006 Q1 £160,319 £194,101 £152,297

2006 Q2 £165,035 £196,373 £153,382

2006 Q3 £168,460 £198,739 £154,475

2006 Q4 £172,065 £200,875 £155,575

2007 Q1 £175,554 £203,333 £156,684

2007 Q2 £181,810 £207,211 £157,800

2007 Q3 £184,131 £209,045 £158,925

2007 Q4 £183,959 £206,162 £160,057

2008 Q1 £179,363 £199,774 £161,197

2008 Q2 £174,514 £190,581 £162,346

2008 Q3 £165,188 £178,654 £163,503

2008 Q4 £156,828 £171,107 £164,668

2009 Q1 £149,709 £166,903 £165,841

2009 Q2 £154,066 £170,387 £167,023

2009 Q3 £160,159 £175,638 £168,213

2009 Q4 £162,116 £175,736 £169,411

2010 Q1 £162,887 £174,639 £170,618

2010 Q2 £168,719 £177,492 £171,834

2010 Q3 £167,354 £175,272 £173,058

2010 Q4 £162,971 £168,802 £174,292

2011 Q1 £162,379 £165,348 £175,533

2011 Q2 £166,764 £166,764 £176,784

Edited by rantnrave

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Good stuff.

Updated today. Interesting to see that in real terms we are now over 20% below the peak less than four years ago. Alas, in the last couple of years pay rises haven't risen with inflation though.

That's true, but they have risen.

Both Nationwide and Halifax publish similar indexes for prices relative to wages and relative to interest rates and wages.

I've taken a brief look at those on this CreditCrunch thread.

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Updated today. Interesting to see that in real terms we are now over 20% below the peak in less than four years. Alas, in the last couple of years pay rises haven't risen with inflation though. As you can see, this figure was pushing 25% until Nationwide's recent mini rally over the last few months. We are also in real terms below the pre-deadcat bounce lows and back to circa Q3 2003 prices.

EDIT: Also just noticed that some of the strongest gains Nationwide records each year is usually between Q1 and Q2. Perhaps they need to seasonally adjust more on that? It does however suggest that their recent uptick in prices will be shortlived.

Bit of shameless self-promotion, but have you seen the graphing over in this thread?

Nationwide Trend Reanalysis Thread

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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