Nationwide 0.0% Mom (-1.1% Yoy)

[nickincash]

"house prices up 0.6%" scream the BBC and Express

I wonder if they're bright enough to figure this.

[neon tetra]

BBC News: Property market 'moving sideways', says Nationwide

30 June 2011 Last updated at 07:00

If they are going to use "moving sideways", given that it is a time-series, then okay. But they have to change "up" to "diagionally up" and down to "diagonally down". In the interest of fairness...

[inflating]

( On a small detail there, I think it is "hear hear" = "a short repeated form of hear ye and hear him". )

"Here here" merely being the phrase used to attract the attention of the Pizza Palace waiter looking for the table that ordered the stuffed crust with extra pineapple

[rantnrave]

I wonder if they're bright enough to figure this.

Ssshhhh! Don't tell them...

I reckon the plan here is fudge growth up until the point when prices started falling last year. That way, the YoY falls will look a lot less severe than they might. Halifax have yet to develop this trick, which is why they're heading for YoY of minus 5% soon.

[noodle doodle]

"-1.1% YoY - Spring bounce well under way then..."

???, unless spring happens at different times every year, any seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out in a year on year measure

[Dr Renter]

I note that nominal prices are up 0.6% on the month (167208 to 168205).

Good stuff this seasonal adjustment.

Congratulations, the first post in this thread that's actually worth reading.

Edited June 30, 2011 by Dr Renter

[Pent Up]

"-1.1% YoY - Spring bounce well under way then..."

???, unless spring happens at different times every year, any seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out in a year on year measure

Also Seasonal adjustments flatten out the effect of a spring bounce, so 0% would indicate that it bounced as expected for a usual spring, no more, no less.

[profitofdoom]

As time passes it seems more and more obvious that we have entered an attrition phase.Prices are drifting lower,maybe 3-5% annually and,when combined with similar inflation figures the real money values of property are being eroded at about 8% P.A.

This represents a very real fall,which if sustained,will make prices affordable again in another two or three years.A 200k house will fall by the equivalent of £16k a year,similar to the take home pay of perhaps 40% of the workforce.

The only rider I would add to this is that,driving around,I don't think that I have ever seen more property on the market.Now of course this may be for a variety of different reasons,not all of them sales out of necessity.The prospect of significantly higher interest rates seems to be receding but speaking from a business point of view trade seems to be collapsing this year and I think the current rash of closures demonstrates that.If you look at where they have occurred I think the increase in VAT may have been the final straw.

[Pent Up]

someone at the Nationwide has a sense of humour methinks...nice colours

I think they will need a darker blue in another month or two!

[Mr 0.01%]

Haha that's one of the worst maps I've ever seen. In a good way.

[Van]

So, right on course for the 3-year-grind that I've been predicting then. Nominal falls will not reach double figures again. They probably will not even reach -5%. We are much close to a nominal low than most people here believe. It's all about inflation doing the real work now - unfortunately this won't make anyone richer as real wages continue to fall.

[Guest_flaps_*]

So, right on course for the 3-year-grind that I've been predicting then. Nominal falls will not reach double figures again. They probably will not even reach -5%. We are much close to a nominal low than most people here believe. It's all about inflation doing the real work now - unfortunately this won't make anyone richer as real wages continue to fall.

So how can we be near a nominal low, if real wages continue to fall and the lending taps are not switched back on again?

[scottbeard]

So how can we be near a nominal low, if real wages continue to fall and the lending taps are not switched back on again?

Umm because nominal wages are increasing, even though in real terms they're falling...?

[OnlyMe]

I think they will need a darker blue in another month or two!

Nationwide's own figures - they are lending like bastards to the London area. Wonder if they (and others) can finanically pollute it to the point it chokes on its own vomit.

[Van]

So how can we be near a nominal low, if real wages continue to fall and the lending taps are not switched back on again?

Because the group that the Govt/BoE have chosen to shaft this time round are savers - by keeping IRs low, so debt payments are manageable and even comfortable. If you have cash sitting in the bank then you are the real loser in all this.

Without a rise in IRs or a big jump in unemployment we will not get the forced sales that will cause a bigger slide. That is the reality of what is happening, rightly or wrongly.

[rantnrave]

This is now breaking news on the BBC website and featured prominently on their Business Page. I've emailed them (and asked for a reply) wanting to know why the much more comprehensive Land Registry out two days before, which shows steep falls across much of the nation, was not given the same or greater exposure.

Edited June 30, 2011 by rantnrave

[Chuffy Chuffnell]

I agree that we're near the nominal low, though the trough is going to be around for years. We'll probably see -5% nominal falls this year and next, then 2-3 years of bugger all. But of course in real terms, with inflation at +5% year-on-year (if not higher!) things are different.

I'm meaning "real" in terms of overall inflation, not wages - which aren't going anywhere. The net result is house prices still too high compared to wages, but low enough for wealthier/BTLers to buy into the market. A nation of low-wage, renters and a mix of wealthy and indebted landlords... it's the 19th century all over again!

Stage two is to open up the mills... With the pound f*cked we could take on China in the cheap manufacturing game by the middle of the decade...

Edited June 30, 2011 by Chuffy Chuffnell

[rantnrave]

Devil's advocate type of post - Merv and co are right, inflation has peaked and next Jan the VAT rise is stripped out of the figures and inflation falls back to the 2% target. Salaries however remain static, or from next year on rise with inflation but not enough to cover the drop in living standards during 2010 - 2011. What happens to house prices in this scenario?

[Guest_flaps_*]

Because the group that the Govt/BoE have chosen to shaft this time round are savers - by keeping IRs low, so debt payments are manageable and even comfortable. If you have cash sitting in the bank then you are the real loser in all this.

Without a rise in IRs or a big jump in unemployment we will not get the forced sales that will cause a bigger slide. That is the reality of what is happening, rightly or wrongly.

But inflation is eating away at this and for many, things are already uncomfortable as they are.

[Chuffy Chuffnell]

Devil's advocate type of post - Merv and co are right, inflation has peaked and next Jan the VAT rise is stripped out of the figures and inflation falls back to the 2% target. Salaries however remain static, or from next year on rise with inflation but not enough to cover the drop in living standards during 2010 - 2011. What happens to house prices in this scenario?

Well, no IR rises, so perhaps flat, slight rise.. but frankly with the up-coming financial shocks I can't see things being so rosey..

[NEO72]

Because the group that the Govt/BoE have chosen to shaft this time round are savers - by keeping IRs low, so debt payments are manageable and even comfortable. If you have cash sitting in the bank then you are the real loser in all this.

Without a rise in IRs or a big jump in unemployment we will not get the forced sales that will cause a bigger slide. That is the reality of what is happening, rightly or wrongly.

What, because negligible wage increases coupled with inflation of living costs doesn't have EXACTLY the same effect on the ability to service mortgage debt as IR hikes?

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

How is this indicator so out of sync with the Halifax and Land Registry? I thought both the Halifax and Nationwide were just two different companies who both have a big mixed bag of homeloans?

As they were both selling mispriced loans to people who could not afford them for so long I cannot see why their figures are so different.

A wall poster in Santander at the weekend 'boasted' "We provide 1 in 6 of all UK mortgages".

The tales their monthly house price index would tell.

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

"-1.1% YoY - Spring bounce well under way then..."

???, unless spring happens at different times every year, any seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out in a year on year measure

Good point... but it was early and I was tired. How about...

-1.1% YoY - Prices are soaring in a downwardly sideways direction.

[Kazuya]

You've seen MASSIVE FALLS if you've held Sold and Gilver throughout this "crash"

[Sour Mash]

What, because negligible wage increases coupled with inflation of living costs doesn't have EXACTLY the same effect on the ability to service mortgage debt as IR hikes?

They have the same kind of effect but not the same magnitude.

IR hikes would directly hit the idiots who overborrowed.

Inflation spreads the pain around everyone but most especially people who were 'sensible' and saved.

It should be pretty evident that this means that the feckless retards end up taking less of a hit than they would otherwise do if we had rising IRs and low inflation.