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Bullish Bear

Bears Only Poll

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I feel that the news of late demonstrates the difficulty that the economy is in. Higher unemployment, higher inflation, high street sales down and bankruptcies up.

A little while ago, people were saying that the housing market was propped up by sound fundamentals - well that prop just snapped and the market is beginning to creak under its own weight.

Timber!

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Guest consa
Consider your thoughts over the past year. How have your feelings changed?

Mine is no change, still convinced we will see -45%, slightly longer than expected but a sudden sharp decline without notice is becoming more probable with the reported slashing of prices, these generally take 3 months or so to feed through, also the doubling of the oil price in the last year has more impact to do yet.

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I'm sure that a HPC will happen. :P

I came here about 9 months ago after looking at houses*, and realising that something wasn't right and that prices couldn't remain high forever.

HPC has helped put together all the pieces that made up my gut feeling, and how it all integates into the overall picture of the UK economy.

Since that time, I've put real serious effort into saving preparing my future - whatever happens to UK PLC.

I've not voted, as it's just confirmed my feelings.

* I even had a higher offer turned down, as the seller amazingly decided to say true to her word on a slighty earlier offer.

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I

A little while ago, people were saying that the housing market was propped up by sound fundamentals - well that prop just snapped and the market is beginning to creak under its own weight.

Timber!

Spot on. They were the main arguments for there not being a HPC, and those fundermentals are weakening by the day.

I feel there is a lot of arguments for there not being a HPC, but an 'orderly decline' (one saying I have heard). But even if there was a HPC it would never be called that, until it is in the history books!

B)

Edited by Jason

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those fundermentals are weakening by the day.

Definitely. The Nationwide and others still cling on to the fact that employment is still very high ... but it's public sector employment and not private sector which is propping up this economy.

Lower growth now is surely going to mean these jobs will start to be slashed... all of the pillars holding up HPI will be removed, and I don't think there's anything that will stop the process coming to its natural conclusion.

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No change for me -- I've known for years that it would end in tears.

I feel that the news of late demonstrates the difficulty that the economy is in. Higher unemployment, higher inflation, high street sales down and bankruptcies up. [bullish Bear]

These are symptoms of the house price correction rather than its cause.

A little while ago, people were saying that the housing market was propped up by sound fundamentals - well that prop just snapped and the market is beginning to creak under its own weight. [bullish Bear]

The market collapsed under its own weight in the second half of last year -- the drop in transaction volume was a clear and unambiguous signal.

They were the main arguments for there not being a HPC, and those fundermentals are weakening by the day. [Jason]

They were the arguments of bulls and therefore based on a false premise.

...the doubling of the oil price in the last year has more impact to do yet. [Consa]

The dollar price of oil may have doubled, but when purchasing in pounds the rise is rather more modest -- adjusted for Retail Price Inflation, petrol prices are only back to where they were in the early 1980s:

http://www.speedlimit.org.uk/petrolprices.html

Allowing for wage inflation and much improved mpg figures, petrol costs are even more affordable.

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Nice idea, but the poll is badly flawed - it assumes we all start from the same bearuish point.

If I am uber bearish and was a year ago I will put no change.

If I was a little bit bearish and still am I will put no change.

The results are therefore of no value IMHO. :(

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This poll is just an admission that the bear camp is losing hope.

The 'bears only' bit is the give-away.

I'd start saving for that deposit now if I were you lot & stop pi*sing it up against the wall. :D

Just out of interest TTRTR. Are you more or less convinced there won't be a HPC than a year ago?

(that's a serious question btw, I'm not trying to pick a fight) :huh:

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Nice idea, but the poll is badly flawed - it assumes we all start from the same bearuish point.

If I am uber bearish and was a year ago I will put no change.

If I was a little bit bearish and still am I will put no change.

The results are therefore of no value IMHO. :(

No - the poll is to find out whether on balance the latest data and news has reinforced your views of a HPC and by how much.

I am convinced that it will collapse now - prices in my area are coming down really quickly now and no one wants to buy. There are no greater fools left.

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Guest muttley

Voted "A little less convinced of a HPC".

12 months ago I was convinced it was imminent.Now I expect it to drift downwards for 3 to 4 years and then crash.The trouble is I'm not prepared to wait that long and would happily buy at 20% off peak,probably late 2006.

If you can wait,wait.

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Guest consa
...the doubling of the oil price in the last year has more impact to do yet. [Consa]

The dollar price of oil may have doubled, but when purchasing in pounds the rise is rather more modest -- adjusted for Retail Price Inflation, petrol prices are only back to where they were in the early 1980s:

http://www.speedlimit.org.uk/petrolprices.html

I am sorry, did I say petrol, thought I said oil, funny how oil instantly translates to petrol, why?, please explain Jeff :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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