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Nationwide 7Am Tomorrow

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Currently just below a three year high! Time for a big fall, shirley?

-0.1%

and don't call me shirley

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Greece is rioting, food and fuel prices are soaring in the UK and around the World, even the BBC is having radio phone-ins now about people being scared of losing their jobs, about little work out there, about people having to choose between food or heating...

...and yet monthly we still have to listen to these numpties in the Nationwide... with their vested interest in ramping house prices IMPO... looking at the UK economy through some delusional, again IMPO, rose-tinted spectacles...

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Greece is rioting, food and fuel prices are soaring in the UK and around the World, even the BBC is having radio phone-ins now about people being scared of losing their jobs, about little work out there, about people having to choose between food or heating...

...and yet monthly we still have to listen to these numpties in the Nationwide... with their vested interest in ramping house prices IMPO... looking at the UK economy through some delusional, again IMPO, rose-tinted spectacles...

yes but at least house prices are still rising, :rolleyes:

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It will depend on things that no one thought of, or what you would normally connect to house prices.

i'm going for tomorrows weather.

if the weather is good/sunny then it will be +2.1%

if its raining then -0.5%

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I'd have to go with a fall. It seems to be getting out of line with other indices so I'd go with -0.4%

Probably be up again though...

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With the proportion of cash sales being around 40% now, almost double the norm, the regionally-biased mortgage provider indices are becoming even less representative of real house prices than they were before. I'm thinking that the land registry is the only thing left that means anything. The Haliwide indices are little more than an advertising ploy for their financial services.

-G

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...and yet monthly we still have to listen to these numpties in the Nationwide... with their vested interest in ramping house prices IMPO... looking at the UK economy through some delusional, again IMPO, rose-tinted spectacles...

I believe that this is their Chief Economist............

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With the proportion of cash sales being around 40% now, almost double the norm, the regionally-biased mortgage provider indices are becoming even less representative of real house prices than they were before. I'm thinking that the land registry is the only thing left that means anything. The Haliwide indices are little more than an advertising ploy for their financial services.

-G

+1

I always prefer LR figures over Halifax and Nationwide who have respectively 20% and 8% market share of a dwindling mortgage market. That said, Halifax has been correlating fairly well with the LR over recent months, whilst NW has been the one diverging, so if NW's methodology is kosher and not buggered up by the changing context (e.g. the mix of housing sold, ratio of sales relying on mortgages to cash sales, seasonal adjustment etc) then we could be in for a large drop, bringing it more in line with Halifax/LR, perhaps between -1 and -2% (would generate some good headlines too).

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With the proportion of cash sales being around 40% now, almost double the norm, the regionally-biased mortgage provider indices are becoming even less representative of real house prices than they were before. I'm thinking that the land registry is the only thing left that means anything. The Haliwide indices are little more than an advertising ploy for their financial services.

-G

Apparently the number of cash buyers is the same as before, it is just the market that has shrunk, so they fill a bigger proportion.

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I cant see how this indicator manages to remain so out of sync compared to the others so with fingers crosses I'm going for -1.7% followed by the headline from The Express which reads 'Ok we give up the ramping, house prices really are falling'.

I know these indicators become less relavent as transaction volumes fall but they are what the sheeple use to gage market sentiment so will always be important for this reason. For example over on the 'this is money' message boards the rampers will jump all over any figure which is less than -1% by claiming theres no crash on the horizon. If one of the last remaining indicators starts to show large falls, the media will be forced to report it and the sentiment then spreads.

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Down Down Down.

Even pseudo middle class, over paid numpties ( i.e. the people I work with ) now say house prices are over-priced, too high and they are dropping. They are aware high prices = bad now. It only took 4 years for them to work it out, bless them.

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but they are what the sheeple use to gage market sentiment so will always be important for this reason.

I certainly agree with this.

Sentiment is so important in the housing market, and the many just believe what they read in the media.

I know here on this forum, we read behind the VI's headlines, but I believe most don't .

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I certainly agree with this.

Sentiment is so important in the housing market, and the many just believe what they read in the media.

I know here on this forum, we read behind the VI's headlines, but I believe most don't .

Absolutely. Drives me potty when a 0.3% rise is spun by the media for all it's worth and more, only for that to be quietly revised in the next month's data to -0.1%.

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With the proportion of cash sales being around 40% now, almost double the norm, the regionally-biased mortgage provider indices are becoming even less representative of real house prices than they were before. I'm thinking that the land registry is the only thing left that means anything. The Haliwide indices are little more than an advertising ploy for their financial services.

-G

I read in recent weeks (probably here, but I don't have a link, sorry) that the amount of cash transactions is about flat and the number of mortgage transaction has fallen. The number of cash transactions has not risen, but is another example of the VIs using statistics to give a positive spin by using 'up', 'grown', 'risen' etc instead of 'fallen', 'down', 'dropped' etc.

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Currently just below a three year high! Time for a big fall, shirley?

...it's a VI fantasy based on asking prices which I don't follow ....complete waste of time... :rolleyes:

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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