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Wurzel Of Highbridge

The Guessing Game..---Land registry -0.4% -2.2% yoy

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It's that time of the month again. Guess this months figures, you have until 11am.

I am starting with -0.8% M/M flattening out last month's +0.8% rise.

I'm going with -2% (I'm starting to see biggish reductions, and I'm assuming the unreduced stuff ain't selling, but offsetting this against the funny-money in London...)

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The last release was for April. This showed huge activity at the top end of the market - mostly due to the new stamp duty level kicking in. That boost should be long gone during May. Two Bank Holidays in there too... I can see those factors leading to big falls. Would love a jaw dropper of greater than 2% down. I'll be happy with over 1% lower though. Anything less than 0.5% up or down is just background noise IMO.

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I'm going with -2% (I'm starting to see biggish reductions, and I'm assuming the unreduced stuff ain't selling, but offsetting this against the funny-money in London...)

It would be great, but LR has a 2 or 3 months delay, so we are talking mini-spring bounce season. Or, is LR seasonally adjusted? If it is not, I would say flattish MoM unfortunately. Say: - 0.3%

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It would be great, but LR has a 2 or 3 months delay, so we are talking mini-spring bounce season. Or, is LR seasonally adjusted? If it is not, I would say flattish MoM unfortunately. Say: - 0.3%

More importantly, how many transactions were there?

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It would be great, but LR has a 2 or 3 months delay, so we are talking mini-spring bounce season. Or, is LR seasonally adjusted? If it is not, I would say flattish MoM unfortunately. Say: - 0.3%

Yes, this report will cover slaes that completed in May, that were agreed mainly in Feb and March.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a headline grabbing rise.

Edit: Bear in mind they needed an extra day to check it...

Edited by Timm

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Two months ago was a big fall and the figures were late coming to their website. Last month the numbers were there early and showed a rise. No sign of the numbers yet on their site... fingers crossed!

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It would be great, but LR has a 2 or 3 months delay, so we are talking mini-spring bounce season. Or, is LR seasonally adjusted? If it is not, I would say flattish MoM unfortunately. Say: - 0.3%

Kudos.

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B)

:D

________________

Edit, 1 minute later: :( I wish it had fallen more. :(

Your analysis was the most thorough - well done. So, by your reckoning, by Aug and Sep the numbers should be showing meatier falls?

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Kudos.

Thanks. Though It was a very short-lived satisfaction, for guessing it right. I would be much happier with a larger fall.

Oh well, at least it didn't go up - in May! = Prime spring bounce season!

Do they seasonally adjust it?

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Dissapointingly small but at least in the right direction.

Sodding 0.6% rise here though :( Just hope that that's noise on the signal that'll get revised down later in any case.

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Wales down -3.5%.

Whats TMP got to moan about? laugh.gif

Also Redbridge down -1.6% Havering up 0.8%. Its all over the place.

Edited by John Steed

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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