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30% Crash Says Telegraph

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100010665/a-little-noticed-milestone-this-week-house-prices-will-have-fallen-over-30-per-cent-in-real-terms/

"Unless something odd happens, this week is likely to see an interesting but under-announced milestone: falls in house prices, in real terms, from their 2007 peak, exceeding 30 per cent (on the well-known Halifax measure). In cash terms, house prices peaked in August 2007, and fell 22 per cent to March 2009. After picking up a little in the second half of 2009 and early 2010, they went back to falling from mid-2010, and have been broadly flat during 2011.

But because inflation is high, that flat performance in cash terms for housing in 2011 means that, after adjusting for inflation, house prices have been falling apace. In real terms, since January 2010, house prices have fallen a further 12 per cent."

Worth reading the rest e.g.

"We house price bears are a hardy, arrogant bunch, though"

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100010665/a-little-noticed-milestone-this-week-house-prices-will-have-fallen-over-30-per-cent-in-real-terms/

"Unless something odd happens, this week is likely to see an interesting but under-announced milestone: falls in house prices, in real terms, from their 2007 peak, exceeding 30 per cent (on the well-known Halifax measure). In cash terms, house prices peaked in August 2007, and fell 22 per cent to March 2009. After picking up a little in the second half of 2009 and early 2010, they went back to falling from mid-2010, and have been broadly flat during 2011.

But because inflation is high, that flat performance in cash terms for housing in 2011 means that, after adjusting for inflation, house prices have been falling apace. In real terms, since January 2010, house prices have fallen a further 12 per cent."

Worth reading the rest e.g.

"We house price bears are a hardy, arrogant bunch, though"

wait until they are saying 50%+ falls... then it will get interesting :)

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yeah I think it's an insult to smelly furry animals if you're not in the 50% gang.

<-----------------

Edited by Lepista

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

A number of sages on this site have pointed out that an HPC will not necessarily make houses any more affordable for the masses.

Hopefully the outcome will not be widespread homeowners topping their fanilies and torching their properties.

p-o-p

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

Rather the opposite...

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

Yes. But interest rates have gone down.

Oh, wait, no they havent. Whereas before 2007 i could get a discount tracker, now i get base +2.5 or 3.0% (assuming i have a big enough deposit)

And yet housing remains in suspended animation.

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wait until they are saying 50%+ falls... then it will get interesting :)

2 years of 5% inflation and a further 10% nominal fall. Job done. Probably a lower nominal fall than many on here are expecting though.

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<br />........<br /><br />........ <img src='http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':unsure:' /> <br /><br />........................ <img src='http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/blink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':blink:' /> <br /><br />................. Anyone want a <br /><br /><font color="#FF0000"><font size="7"><b>LIAR LOAN?</b></font></font><br /><br />----------- <img src='http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':(' /> <br /><br /><br />-- <img src='http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' /><br />

Goose And Gridiron >>> G.A.G.

MortGAGe

gag - from slang verbal sense of "to deceive, take in with talk" (1777) GGG

Do your Masonic Masters deceive you?

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I'm seeing 25% down on some local properties (via PropertyBee). I suspect that these are forced sellers, who presumably cursing themselves that they have to sell now rather than waiting for prices to bounce back... I suspect they'll be breathing a huge sigh of relief in the not too distant future.

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Here in SE England house prices and wages are the same/similar to 2007, they maybe 30% cheaper in relation to baked beans and tinned tuna if id invested in these goods in 07.

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

+1x10100

And I'm surprised so many "economists" just don't get it. Even though the cpi adjusted figures show a 30% fall, the fact that wages increases are not keeping up with cpi means that in "real terms" houses are not becoming any more affordable.

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2 years of 5% inflation and a further 10% nominal fall. Job done. Probably a lower nominal fall than many on here are expecting though.

Depends on wages; if the cost of goods is increasing rapidly whilst wages are flat then the effect of bursting the bubble could be magnified.

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...back to the levels of 2002...

How did he work that out?

In 2002, we had properties sold for £325K in our street. It would only be £400K if things were flat. But they are selling them (well trying to sell them anyway) for £500K plus.

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2 years of 5% inflation and a further 10% nominal fall. Job done. Probably a lower nominal fall than many on here are expecting though.

If wage increases are flat then 2 years of 5% inflation in all other goods means houses become 10% less affordable. So a further 10% nominal fall would be treading water. Job not done.

Welcome to the world of stagflation.

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Why worry - at this rate the weak pound will result in more foreigners coming in to buy UK houses... with no stop on immigration if you buy a house here... within 5 years there could be a serious crisis in the UK where truly vast numbers of British born people have no home here...

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within 5 0 years there could be a serious crisis in the UK where truly vast numbers of British born people have no home here...

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Wait until the BBC and Express are saying 50%+ falls B)

"House prices edged 50% sideways in an unexpected boom brought on my low interest rates and hot weather"

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

Quite.

Andrew Lilico

Andrew Lilico is an Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee. He was formerly the Chief Economist of Policy Exchange.

Ffs, it's not hard is it. Why is everyone so retarded?

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Why worry - at this rate the weak pound will result in more foreigners coming in to buy UK houses... with no stop on immigration if you buy a house here... within 5 years there could be a serious crisis in the UK where truly vast numbers of British born people have no home here...

Yes

I think this is the reason that area's such as the not very nice part's of East London, that you drove through 20 years ago and thought im glad I do not live here are now so expensive.

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Although this is a bit misleading on the bear side as wages havent kept up, its not really a decrease in real terms as its no 13% easier to buy a house now as wages have not increased.

Correct

Also while wages are not increasing but other essential cost's are the chance of buying the house and being able to pay for it and run it have got further away from people not nearer to them.

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Funny,there's another article in the same telegraph that says there has been no significant sign of a house price crash.

are we reading the same paper,or are the journalists schizo?(the same people would not hesitate to call us doomsters mentally ill for seeing negative consequences to over-borrowing and extortionate costs for basic necessities..so I'm just wondering)

Edited by oracle

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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