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Any Doubt That We're In Stagflation?

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Seems obvious to me.

Restaurants put up prices and/pr reduce portion size (all the eateries I have frequented in the past few months from a greasy spoon to Italian restaurants).

Supermarket prices up with goods quantities down almost universally (hard to get a decent beer at less than a quid a can in a supermarket now whereas a year or more ago it was about 60-70p/can except for the top premiums).

Petrol, diesel, leccy, gas all up way beyond any inflation figures yet wages stay the same.

Council services being cut a lot but no reduction in council tax.

Rarely see flippers nowadays in the housing market and when they do try and take the piss they remain unsold.

Am I just a miserable git or what? :P

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Rarely see flippers nowadays in the housing market and when they do try and take the piss they remain unsold.

Floppers?

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Restaurants put up prices and/pr reduce portion size (all the eateries I have frequented in the past few months from a greasy spoon to Italian restaurants).

The long awaited deflation in people's waste size is finally underway...

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Seems obvious to me.

Restaurants put up prices and/pr reduce portion size (all the eateries I have frequented in the past few months from a greasy spoon to Italian restaurants).

Supermarket prices up with goods quantities down almost universally (hard to get a decent beer at less than a quid a can in a supermarket now whereas a year or more ago it was about 60-70p/can except for the top premiums).

Petrol, diesel, leccy, gas all up way beyond any inflation figures yet wages stay the same.

Council services being cut a lot but no reduction in council tax.

Rarely see flippers nowadays in the housing market and when they do try and take the piss they remain unsold.

Am I just a miserable git or what? :P

There is no doubt in my mind at all that we are in rather severe stagflation.

Current monetary policy is only going to make it worse :

- The depreciation of Sterling will make price inflation worse

- Global rather than local labour markets mean that there is no transfer mechanism for price inflation to become wage inflation

Poor measurements of inflation and labour market inactivity mean that the situation is far worse than official statistics show.

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I just bought my regular 210g salad pot from Tesco. Today for the first time I had to pour off 50g of water before decanting the beans and peas. Will this 20% (approx) inflation be recorded in any statistic? No, of course not.

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I just bought my regular 210g salad pot from Tesco. Today for the first time I had to pour off 50g of water before decanting the beans and peas. Will this 20% (approx) inflation be recorded in any statistic? No, of course not.

salad boy, salad boy :lol:

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Seems obvious to me.

Restaurants put up prices and/pr reduce portion size (all the eateries I have frequented in the past few months from a greasy spoon to Italian restaurants).

Supermarket prices up with goods quantities down almost universally (hard to get a decent beer at less than a quid a can in a supermarket now whereas a year or more ago it was about 60-70p/can except for the top premiums).

Petrol, diesel, leccy, gas all up way beyond any inflation figures yet wages stay the same.

Council services being cut a lot but no reduction in council tax.

Rarely see flippers nowadays in the housing market and when they do try and take the piss they remain unsold.

Am I just a miserable git or what? :P

i see all the same everywhere too,

but i love it, i want everyhing to go higher and higher, i love it when i here people complain at work, hope this will make lower house prices, that is all i want, dont care about the rest,

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i see all the same everywhere too,

but i love it, i want everyhing to go higher and higher, i love it when i here people complain at work, hope this will make lower house prices, that is all i want, dont care about the rest,

Its biflation, always has been.

Edited by crash2006

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In a little over a year..

Sainsbury's Basics butter 250g up 75% from 62p to 110p (tastes like sh*te)

Kerry Gold butter 250g up 40% from 100p to 140p

had a letter from virgin media this morning yelling me that my line rental is going up 11% to just shy of £14 which is really annoying as I don't use a landline and only have to have it for my broadband, grhhh! So I'll be paying £32.50 a month just to be able to get on-line :(

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I just bought my regular 210g salad pot from Tesco. Today for the first time I had to pour off 50g of water before decanting the beans and peas. Will this 20% (approx) inflation be recorded in any statistic? No, of course not.

It's worse than you think.

If the price of the pot is steady at P then the price per gram of beans/peas has risen from P/210 to P/160.

That's a 31.25% rise.

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I just bought my regular 210g salad pot from Tesco. Today for the first time I had to pour off 50g of water before decanting the beans and peas. Will this 20% (approx) inflation be recorded in any statistic? No, of course not.

Same goes for Heinz Baked Beans. About 1/4 of the tin now appears to be water/'sauce'. The change came about 6-8 months ago.

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Same goes for Heinz Baked Beans. About 1/4 of the tin now appears to be water/'sauce'. The change came about 6-8 months ago.

Presumeably you're seeing a similar decrease in the calories per can?

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Seems obvious to me.

Restaurants put up prices and/pr reduce portion size (all the eateries I have frequented in the past few months from a greasy spoon to Italian restaurants).

Supermarket prices up with goods quantities down almost universally (hard to get a decent beer at less than a quid a can in a supermarket now whereas a year or more ago it was about 60-70p/can except for the top premiums).

Petrol, diesel, leccy, gas all up way beyond any inflation figures yet wages stay the same.

Council services being cut a lot but no reduction in council tax.

Rarely see flippers nowadays in the housing market and when they do try and take the piss they remain unsold.

Am I just a miserable git or what? :P

to be honest what we're is irrelevant as its already happened, all that matters as far as making forward looking decisions is what you will be in in the future, it would be great if we could make sound future investment decisions on the present or past but in reality its about as useful as a chocolate teapot, might well continue, might not, if it doesnt it isnt much use knowing we were in it in the past, just as its not much use knowing we were in deflation in the past and credit inflation in the past.

Although its probably relevant that when the majority of people assumed future credit inflation in 07 it changed and when the majority of people assumed future deflation by the end of 08 it changed etc etc

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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It's NOT stagflation.

One of the bods at the B of E says so

"The Bank of England has no reason to raise interest rates, as credit and wage growth are slow and there is little risk of a repeat of 1970s-style stagflation, policymaker Adam Posen said on Monday.

Posen, the most dovish member of the Bank's 9-member rate-setting committee, also said public inflation expectations remained stable. Oil prices and productivity growth -- two other past triggers of stagnant growth twinned with high inflation -- were not yet a cause for concern either.

As a result, Posen dismissed a call on Sunday for higher interest rates from the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, a forum for central bankers.

"BIS just said all central banks should raise rates, and pointed to the UK's above-target past inflation. Nonsense," he wrote in slides provided by the Bank to accompany a closed-door presentation at the University of Aberdeen.

"In the UK and the west more broadly, there is little or no credit growth, little wage growth beyond productivity, little evidence of rising inflation expectations, and oil prices are not -- yet -- a one way bet," he said.

The Bank has kept rates at a record low 0.5 percent since the depths of the financial crisis in March 2009, despite inflation at a two-and-a-half year high of 4.5 percent, blaming above-target inflation on a series of one-off factors.

Posen -- who has voted for more quantitative easing since October -- said oil prices were his biggest source of inflationary concern, although they mattered less for the British economy than it did 30 years ago.

The cost of a barrel of Brent crude almost doubled in dollar terms between May 2010 and April 2011, but have since fallen by more than 15 percent.

"If the (upward) trend is big enough and reversals short enough, we will respond to keep inflation in line with the target. But a majority of the MPC (KOSDAQ: 050540.KQ - news) -- and I agree -- says (we are) not yet there," Posen wrote.

He was less concerned about a possible slowdown in Britain's long-term rate of economic growth, which if true would limit how fast the economy could grow without generating excess inflation.

Two of Posen's fellow policymakers -- Spencer Dale and Martin Weale -- cited weak productivity growth as a reason behind their vote this month for higher interest rates.

Posen agreed that the numbers looked bad at first glance, but doubted they were correct, citing continued hiring at firms with low profit margins and a fairly small increase in company liquidations and long-term joblessness among other factors.

"We should continue to treat trend growth as largely unchanged," he said. "GDP data tends to get revised up after recessions -- particularly in the UK -- and there is an obvious candidate in net export measures," he said.

The Office for National Statistics releases revised first-quarter GDP data at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, which economists polled by Reuters expect to confirm the tepid 0.5 percent quarterly growth reported earlier.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-Posen-says-nonsense-reuters_molt-94515517.html?x=0

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It's quite interesting having high inflation and low wage rises. If you look at what you actually need from the basket, i.e. the highly inflationary items, they are the ones you need. So inflation is over 4.5 percent on nescessities and yet wages aren't rising.

What happens next?

Is it the long awaited deflation, or is it wage rises?

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It's quite interesting having high inflation and low wage rises. If you look at what you actually need from the basket, i.e. the highly inflationary items, they are the ones you need. So inflation is over 4.5 percent on nescessities and yet wages aren't rising.

What happens next?

Is it the long awaited deflation, or is it wage rises?

Its pretty obvious that whats happening is all the paper wealth transfers from the proles to the elites over the past two decades are now being made real. They'll force through osterity and wealth transfers galore as we are seeing in greece and ignore all the warning signs. The proles will see themselves suffer more and more as the global elite becomes ever more wealthy. Eventually the proles will say enough is enough and an 'arab' spring or rose revolution will spread across europe. The current spanish and greek protests are no more than a minor foretaste of what is to come. The proles just arent suffering enough yet for it to happen.

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For the past year or so I'd been buying 'Brook Bond D' tea at B&B Bargains - at 89p for 80 a bargain, and makes a decent, strong cup of tea.

Imagine my annoyance when, having been off the shelves for a few weeks, the tea reappears in flashy new packaging.

Suddenly, it tastes like pish. Finding an old box in the recycling, the pack weight has gone from 250g to 160g (for the same price). That is shocking. I've been using two tea bags per cup! Looks like I might have to give the Aldi brand a go (they do decent 200g coffee for £1.45).

The thing is, over at Unilever, some product manager, paid a lot of money, has put through these major changes, thinking that people won't notice it suddenly tastes shit.

Sorry to come over all MSE but this hidden inflation in pack sizes is a sign of what a mess the economy is in.

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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