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Bbc Bear? The Banks Have Stored Up The Pain For Later

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Some interesting facts about the scale of forbearance and how many houses and businesses have been helped out. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13925465

It seem to point to a picture of a tipping point coming where the banks/gov have help out enough and finally pull the plug on all the help so the market can sort itself out.

On the down side the last paragraph makes it sound like a "get your credit NOW" sales pitch as you wont be able to get so much debt in the future

If banks face a sudden increase in losses on loans where they've shown forbearance, their ability and appetite to provide new credit could be significantly impaired.

I like these two

1) The Bank of England estimates that up to 12% of UK residential mortgages could be receiving some kind of forbearance or special help from banks at present.

2) A report by the Property Industry Alliance suggests that around 80% of loans to commercial property businesses made since 2004 may be in breach of their Loan-to-Value covenant, though - for all the woes of commercial property companies - only fraction of these have been declared in default, with the banks preferring instead to extend maturities by between one and three years (according to research by De Montford University). So the Bank of England says that around a third of all UK commercial property lending could be receiving some kind of forbearance.

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This Preston blog is more bearish about banks re mortgages and its affect on house prices than I thought it would be from the thread.

Preston going over to the dark side - HPC?

Peston has been very bearish lately, particularly on Greece. He seems to be piling up the pressure / evidence that UK banks are not out of the woods yet. If the rest of the EU banking system is in similar straights, and behaviour of the German and French governments over the Greek crisis suggests that it is, then another credit crunch seems inevitable. Indeed I noted that Soros has waded in saying as much.

This is all going to go to rats and it could be very quick when it final happens. Eye of the storm, springs to mind.

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The trouble is because they didn't have the correction in 2003, the numbers are going to be huge. I doubt the banks can cope with the numbers if 12% are already in trouble and need help, just think what will happen once these are finally allowed to fail. A guess based on nothing I'd double the 12% figure for the numbers that will default.

The BoE is going to be printing an awful lot of secret money.

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Hmmm

This is getting silly now, i'm in the process of shifting out of Santander, now Lloyds as well. Running out of places to hide, except when your raped over interest rate.

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Some interesting facts about the scale of forbearance and how many houses and businesses have been helped out. http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-13925465

It seem to point to a picture of a tipping point coming where the banks/gov have help out enough and finally pull the plug on all the help so the market can sort itself out.

On the down side the last paragraph makes it sound like a "get your credit NOW" sales pitch as you wont be able to get so much debt in the future

I like these two

Don't you mean - "The banks (their shareholders & owners) have helped themselves to enough"? :P

Brown was (pretend? cos they is all in this together) threatening all sorts to try to force them to lend to small businesses.

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basel III calls for tier one at what 8.5%,given them an extra couple of years to get it straight.then take a haircut on some of their capital possibly..........could be back to being leveraged at 30+ before you know it.it's genuinely 100% FUBAR.

I cant say I am more than a novice at accounts, but when I had a look through the results of HSBC and Standard Chartered, it seemed to me that these banks were carrying an awful lot of capital. That means that they are much less profitable, and less risky at the same time. I suspect that the fact that neither of these banks has a government behind them that could bail them out has something to do with their positions.

Now HSBC wrote off a fortune of sub-prime losses in the US, and SC seems to have avoided the very worst of the writedowns by just avoiding making bad loans. Other banks have not been so wise or had such a bitter experience to learn from. These two banks are clearly expecting a very bad thing to happen.

Will it be this week, when Greece finally explodes, when they say they are going to default or everyone else stops trying to bail them out? No Black Day thread so far, which means it could happen this week.

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There are still an eyewatering amount of bad debts out there, either hidden or kicked into the future. It's about time some people started realising those losses rather than expecting others to do it for them.

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Hmmm

This is getting silly now, i'm in the process of shifting out of Santander, now Lloyds as well. Running out of places to hide, except when your raped over interest rate.

Is Santander any less safe than the rest?

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Hmmm

This is getting silly now, i'm in the process of shifting out of Santander, now Lloyds as well. Running out of places to hide, except when your raped over interest rate.

Try OCBC. Strongest bank in the wiwd (as they might say on Far EastEnders).

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Sshhh! There isn't even one about the recent decline in the shiny stuff either.

Not even from RB?

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Hmmm

This is getting silly now, i'm in the process of shifting out of Santander, now Lloyds as well. Running out of places to hide, except when your raped over interest rate.

I'm planning on applying for a Santander Home Saver (5%) at the moment. A poster in the branch at the weekend bizarrely boasted "We provide 1 in 6 of all UK mortgages". Erm, yeah, and we know why!

I'm resigned now to this fkd up, incestuous system. Not one of these banks is going to be allowed to fail. Just find the best rate you can and ride the storm. Unlike most people here (or so it seems), I don't have any wealth to protect, just my meagre hand-to-mouth income minus expenses.

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I'm resigned now to this fkd up, incestuous system. Not one of these banks is going to be allowed to fail. Just find the best rate you can and ride the storm. Unlike most people here (or so it seems), I don't have any wealth to protect, just my meagre hand-to-mouth income minus expenses.

i'm the same, I thought about where i want my money etc, i dont have much (i started from basically 0 a couple of months ago) as i wanted to protect myself and my G/F as much as possible, but you cant really protect your self 100%.

i have my Main current account and savings in HSBC, our joint/house bills account is with Santander, money goes in, money goes out, whats left in that one goes into savings with Nationwide, the G/F has her current and personal savings with Nationwide.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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