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tatty

£103,000 In July 2001...what Price Now?

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Found a house I like and i'm trying to gauge what a 'reasonable' offer would be, I won't say the asking price yet to avoid possibly colouring peoples judgement.

It's a 3 bed semi in an ok-ish part of Southampton.

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2 trillion pounds......

Stick in an offer of 80k. a price is only a price. There is only one thing that counts and that is what someone is prepared to pay. Unfortunately there are a lot of idiots living in this world.

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Wages are rising 4% a year, and house prices over history have risen in line with wages.

103000 x 1.04^4 (4 years from 2001 to 2005)

£120500 sounds reasonable to me.

Edited by BandWagon

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Id say its probably marketed for £270,000. So pay £200,000 maximum. In in my area did exactly this - dropped 70k in 9 months - well didnt drop, the EA's got FOUND OUT!

Best advice is get autoroute or an AtoZ and get prices off www.houseprice.co.uk for all houses sold in a 1 mile radius - this should give you a getter idea of what its worth. You DONT have to offer more than the last sold - its a declining market!

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It's £169,950

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-472...pa_n=5&tr_t=buy

Seems reasonable, but not as reasonable as £152k which is the figure I was thinking of offering. It's still £49k in their pocket.

tatty you kinda answer your own question in a round about way, it doesnt matter what a bunch of people on a forum think the house is worth - they dont know the area, the history, the neighbours etc. We could all chuck out numbers but you say you think its reasonable at 152K.... well guess what .... thats the price your prepared to pay for it, that is how much it is worth of YOUR money, that is your offer if you think its reasonable.

You consider them making nearly £50K in 4 years for doing nothing reasonable? Thats your call.

EDITED:

Im comming to the conclusion that you are taking ~10% off because that what your told these days, dont do what your told , be rebelious, do what you _feel_ is right.

Wow! Massive garden.

Room to build a detached! :lol: Notice how even the speed boat at the bottom looks small ... :)

Edited by theChuz

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Tatty:

This house, Tatty, is worth no more than 118K. Don't be fooled with all the vendors greedy asking prices. Don't think you have a deal if you can get 10K off - that's what vendors are hoping.

Ca$h is going to king around here very soon.

Edited by Pluto

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Not bad at all for the money. Bid the £152K you might get lucky.The neighbours might give you big hugs and kisses and take you out to dinner when they see that trampoline and the screaming kids dissapearing down the road.

Got a friend in Chester with a mint house. has dropped the price, down £65K in 12 months, an absolute bargain. Has lots of very serious interest until the buyers go upstairs look out of the back bedroom and see the trampoline, blow up pool, swings and slide in next doors garden, kills any chance of a sale dead every time.

Edited by Serpico

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I'm in a bit of pickle because we have a 5 yr old and a dog so renting somewhere nice can be a challenge. My other half is living in Plymouth while I work in Southampton (rented room) during the week. If circumstances were different for me i'd sit and wait but i'm almost being levered into it.

I'll look a right hypocrite after lecturing my mates who were thinking of buying and pointing them on here. I've lost count of the number of people i've been glared at by at work when I start my hpc rants.

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If it was £103k in 2001, I wouldn't pay no more than £103x1.025^4 = £115k for it now. Of course you won't get it for thim much now, but in a year or two.....

Historically and on average, houses always rise slower than wage increases, because a 4% increase on a £30k wage is not the same as a 4% increase on a mortgage of £115k.

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If it was £103k in 2001, I wouldn't pay no more than £103x1.025^4 = £115k for it now. Of course you won't get it for thim much now, but in a year or two.....

Historically and on average, houses always rise slower than wage increases, because a 4% increase on a £30k wage is not the same as a 4% increase on a mortgage of £115k.

Your logic is sound. I suppose the question is can I live with potentially 35k neg eq; assuming an offer of £152k is accepted.

Room to build a detached! :lol: Notice how even the speed boat at the bottom looks small ... :)

Hadn't even considered that. How difficult is it to get that sort of planning permission if sometime in the (very) distant future we wanted to build another house on that land?

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Your logic is sound. I suppose the question is can I live with potentially 35k neg eq; assuming an offer of £152k is accepted.

Hadn't even considered that. How difficult is it to get that sort of planning permission if sometime in the (very) distant future we wanted to build another house on that land?

<while looking at palms of hands>

Nooooooooo what have i done....

</while looking at palms of hands>

Dude or dudette, you shouldnt have to live with 35K neg eq :lol:

If ya wants it me precious then buys its i suppose.

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Dear tatty (mate :D ),

Knock em down hard, I would personally offer £120K. No offence, but this isn't the best part of town...nice house and everything, not disputing that, but you say you have a 5 yr old....have you checked out the local schools????

The best schools are not everyones priority in life, just thought worth mentioning IMHO.

Rgds,

JBeau (gd neighbour :) )

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Tatty,

Lets think back to when NuLabour came to power.

Back then house prices reasonable.

Now at that time similar properties would have been a shad unde 60K

Let's say 59,995.00 No too unreasonable assumption.

Now its 8 years on

So 599995 * 1.04^8 (let's assume 4% per year wage 'increases')

That makes it £82,107.30

Now they say in real terms they have double in price

2 * 82K =164K

This proves the point really.

All FTBs are well and truly f*cked

Therefore OFFER a not to unreasonable £82,107 and 30 pence !!!

That's what it should be!!!

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I'm in a bit of pickle because we have a 5 yr old and a dog so renting somewhere nice can be a challenge. My other half is living in Plymouth while I work in Southampton (rented room) during the week. If circumstances were different for me i'd sit and wait but i'm almost being levered into it.

Hi Tatty

I can see your problem - I've got friends in a similar situation. It's a great looking house with a lot of potential and loads of space. The kind of place you could enjoy for a decade or two without running out of space. The price is also reasonable compared to a lot of the stuff on offer at the moment.

There are key issues for you here:

It's a falling market at the moment and you're definitely going to lose money on it in the short-term. The issue is whether you can carry that negative equity through a recession. If you've got solid job security, like a teacher or a nurse, civil servant etc then you can probably carry it through no problem. Negative equity only becomes an issue when you're forced to sell. If you're in the private sector or in a field where you could end up being made redundant in a recession you could end up going bankrupt and losing all the deposit you've worked so hard to save.

Also, if you're in a position to develop the property, ie: you have money to invest or a builder in the family, then you could beat the market and add value regardless of downward market movements.

Also, how do the living costs compare? By my figures, assuming you've got say £25k deposit, you'll be borrowing £140k, so your mortgage payments will be somewhere around £800 a month. If that compares favourably to the renting alternative then it could be worth a punt.

Personally (obviously) I'd hang on to my deposit and stick it out until the economy has finished tottering and the chips have fallen where they will. Cash in the bank is going to be VERY useful at the bottom of the curve.

Good luck either way!

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Bird101,

I've got a deposit of just over 40k so would need a mortgage for around £110k at the figures I suggested. My other half knows we'll more than likely take a hefty hit on that deposit so it boils down to the least worse option:

a) commute with cheap rent in Plymouth (£250pm) and a room in Southampton (£350)

B) rent in southampton (£700)

c) buy at around the 150k mark and pay a mortgage of around £650 (repayment)

A&B shaft me for quality of life and C requires that I pour a massive chunk of my savings down the drain.

boo hoo

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Bird101,

I've got a deposit of just over 40k so would need a mortgage for around £110k at the figures I suggested. My other half knows we'll more than likely take a hefty hit on that deposit so it boils down to the least worse option:

a) commute with cheap rent in Plymouth (£250pm) and a room in Southampton (£350)

B) rent in southampton (£700)

c) buy at around the 150k mark and pay a mortgage of around £650 (repayment)

A&B shaft me for quality of life and C requires that I pour a massive chunk of my savings down the drain.

boo hoo

LOL Sorry to hear that. With your £40k in the bank on a crumby 3% you'll be earning about £100 a month on it, in the stockmarket you'd be getting 10-12%, £300-£400 a month. But if you had bought your property a month ago your equity would have fallen about 0.2% (that was the fall in September according to the Times), so you would have to add that into your costs for option C - a capital loss of £300 for the month. Assuming that's how things are set to continue, the total cost of option C looks more like £1050 - £1350 once you add that all together.

You'd be better off buying yourself a nice big Mercedes to make all those long trips enjoyable!

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  • 339 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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