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Realistbear

Evesham Valley: Worcs, Warks, Gloucs

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The market in my area is deteriorating from a seller's perspective. I have noticed that every "Sold" sign has fine print stating "subject to contract." Further, that many houses are listed with "no upward chain." This must mean that the would-be sellers are hoping to go STR or move out of the market altogether (or BTLs bailing). Finally, there are growing numbers of houses with "new price" on the detail sheets--this must be what was once known as "reduced price." The market is teetering that is for sure--the only problem is that when it crashes it will drag down a lot more than just house prices. :o

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The market in my area is deteriorating from a seller's perspective.

Hi Realistbear, and welcome back to HPC. I remember you used to live in the States, I take it you've moved back here now ?

I've noticed the same thing in Warwickshire too, loads of no chains etc. Walking down the street, it looks a lonely life being an EA these days.

Muha ha ha ha !! :)

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Hi Realistbear, and welcome back to HPC. I remember you used to live in the States, I take it you've moved back here now ?

I've noticed the same thing in Warwickshire too, loads of no chains etc. Walking down the street, it looks a lonely life being an EA these days.

Muha ha ha ha !! :)

Yes--moved back to the old country now that there is a realistic chance of buying a home at a good price! I sold in California a couple of years ago (not quite at the top) and have stayed in US $ hoping for a double whammy--HPC and Sterling crash! Not so sure though--the US is in big trouble with GM and Ford facing huge losses following the end of SUV sales. 75,000 will lose jobs in the first round of shut downs and that will have a knock on effect with other supply industries being hit also. 70% of those people own homes which means a lot of distressed sales coming onto the market very suddenly. Bears may have to be careful for what we wish for--a meltdown in the housing market may sink a lot else besides.

Just left the San Diego area and that market topped out about 6 months ago. Up 140% in 7 years was never sustainable. Less than 13% of Californians can now afford to buy the average home--talk about the market priocing itself out of existence. And now Al Greenspan is warning people about the folly of interest only mortgages--leveraged homeowners must be sick with anxiety right about now.

The Evesham Valley area seems quite cheap compared with many places in the UK. Too far from London to attract commuters and a little too far south of Birmingham to catch those commuters. The Cotswolds has a growing number of "For Sale" signs which may reflect the beginning of sorrows for the second home market. BTW if the Governement want to raise taxes why don't they end the tax breaks on 2nd homes? I understand people with weekend cottages do not pay full council tax as they are not there 24/7. THis would provide another nice nail in the HPI coffin.

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Just left the San Diego area and that market topped out about 6 months ago. Up 140% in 7 years was never sustainable.

Thanks for the reply. :) I occasionally read about the US housing market, and found this site devoted to the San Diego bubble :- http://piggington.com/ (unfortunately some content is now paid-only but there's some good free stuff).

Even parts of Canada (where I had a great holiday recently) look expensive, especially Vancouver.

What must be happening is that the entire local economies are being strangled by people having to spend more and more of their take-home pay just keeping up on the mortgage payments - result is much less disposable income to spend on other things.

Still, it does appear that some areas of the U.S. are not quite so bubble-affected.... in the UK there appears to be nowhere that has escaped this pernicious virus.

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Thanks for the reply. :) I occasionally read about the US housing market, and found this site devoted to the San Diego bubble :- http://piggington.com/ (unfortunately some content is now paid-only but there's some good free stuff).

Even parts of Canada (where I had a great holiday recently) look expensive, especially Vancouver.

What must be happening is that the entire local economies are being strangled by people having to spend more and more of their take-home pay just keeping up on the mortgage payments - result is much less disposable income to spend on other things.

Still, it does appear that some areas of the U.S. are not quite so bubble-affected.... in the UK there appears to be nowhere that has escaped this pernicious virus.

Piggington has become somewhat of a celebrity recently as his forecasts about the real estate bubble have started to come to pass. A big article in the San Diego Union paper appeared recently and he said that he had been contacted by nobel prize winning Milton Friedman--one of the US's leading economists. Piggington's thesis is simple: property bubbles burst! I used to email Piggington quite frequently when I lived in San Diego and had managed to bring a little influence to bear on the local press who were not reporting current trends in prices.

The last crash in the property market in San Diego began in 1989 as more and more money was spent on real estate and less and less in the local community. People became "house-poor" and were moving into big shiny new homes and were hanging sheets at the windows and sitting on bean bags as there was nothing left after the mortgage payments. I almost got on the bandwagon and was going to buy a house I could not afford on the basis that I could turn it over in 6 months for a big profit. I decided to bail out of the home I already had instead and within a couple of months the party came to an abrupt end. The home I sold for $374k (bought the year before for $274k) dropped over $100k in 2 years! Those who had bought thinking that the capital gains would offset temporary financial hardship were caught without a place to sit when the music stopped. The result was many bankruptcies and a crash that lasted until 1996. The exact same scenario exists today in both California and throughout England. Both markets have stalled and prices in San Diego are 5% lower Year-over-year than a year ago. They are already on the way down and the bottom is a long way off in my view.

The UK economy is being strangled by high house prices that is for certain. People are broke apart from the "value" in their homes and their ability to borrow against notional equity. As Mervyn King pointed out, people have been using their homes as a private bank against which to finance all and sundry. Earnings bear no relationship to house prices and the market must and will correct itself. Now that the government are going to allow houses to be bought into pension plans is another sign that everything is being done to perpetuate price rises. By the time the SIPP plan comes into effect the market will already be in a sharp decline and people will not want their pensions in a declining asset over which they have little control.

Ironic that a labour government has been the facilitator of such distortions occuring in the economy to where the old and the less well off are prevented from owning a home! Imprisoning people for civil debt (non-payment of council taxes) harkens back to the 18th Century and the proliferation of speed cameras takes us a little less far back to a "1984" scenario. We have to ask if the government is still "serving" the interests of the people or it is there to indulge itself in power for power's sake. I doubt if the Lib-Dems will be able to put together a credible alternative as they still seem a bit "purple shirt" to me. The Tories simply lack a leader and if one could be found then there may be some hope. Tony Blair is an intelligent man and knows he must resign before it becomes any more obvious that things are not going very well anymore. Allowing Gordon to become PM before the end of this Parliament will do little to protect his legacy which, sadly, will be judged in the aftermath of a property value melt-down.

Seems to me that this site is less busy these days which may be a sign that its purpose has been served and that the market has already turned and is into correction phase. The interesting thing will be to see how it picks up momentum to the downside in the coming weeks.

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I have been counting FOR SALE signs on a quarter mile stretch of road just outside Evesham as a barometer of the HPC in this area. There are currently 9 for sale only one of which is optimistically signed "Sold" with tiny print saying it isn't actually sold but is still STC--its been that way for over a month.

There is a small side street that leads through an old council estate where a builder has erected about 7 detached (so close together they might as well be terraced) all of which are still for sale in the high 200k range--none occupied or sold as far as I can tell. New Home builders may well be the catalyst for the crash as there comes a point when a builder will sell off his stock rather than pay the bank for empty houses.

By all accounts HPI is dead and buried. EA windows are filled with properties with "new prices" which is the new term used to avoid panic--"price reduced" has been removed from EA language around here it seems.

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Boy, this bubble is going to make one heck of a bang! The World's first housing bubble!

Fascinating insight into San Diego.

The July-September 2005 Land Registry figures for Warwickshire show both prices and volumes down.

Average price July - September 2004 £199,224

July - September 2005 £196,065

That's a 1.6% drop.

Volumes down from 3185 to 2602 over the same period. That's a 18% reduction.

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I have noticed a reduction in price on the rental properties in the area.

I was looking earlier this year, and it seemed 500 for flat, and 700+ for house, which is a fair old whack!

Now, im seeing rental's as low as 360 for flats up to 480, and houses at 500+... obviously not like for like, but I think i can see a trend developing here!

A terraced cottage near the high street, for 500pm appears a good one to me!... Just doesn't have the parking I need.

I also see a lot of empty estate agents on the high street...

So more properties, and less transactions, its already started to give, and will come down further still, in my opinion!

I HOPE

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Worcester -

Change in last quarter: -3.6%

Change in last year: -6.1%

................................................

I was interested to read the front page of our local paper last week - (property) "TYCOON FACES DEBTS CRISIS". This guy has been responsible for umpteen "executive" developments in the area, converting old buildings into unthinkably expensive pads and a fair few new builds, again "executive" and I had to drive past his grinning face on a huge bill-board every day on the way to my night-shift. As a renter unable to afford to buy in the area I found this highly annoying.

I feel a bit better now.

Also my rent hasn't budged for 3 years - paying £425pm for a shabby terrace, no central heating, no double glazing, smelly old carpets, pokey old kitchen and bathroom etc.

Suits me fine, the cheaper the better. I never bother the property agents about the place as I like the current arrangement of the rent never increasing.

The flat I used to rent 5 years ago, about half a mile away, is still what I was paying back then. :blink:

Things are looking up down in Worcester.

....................................................................

Hello HPC, thought it was time I joined in, I'm certainly no expert on these matters though.

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According to the latest Land Registry report West Midlands is almost the worst housing market in the country--West Country being the greatest crash area.

Still nothing moving arouind here--EA windows still full of houses for sale with "new prices" marked on many. A neighbour is thinking about renting their house as its been on the market for almost a year with no offers. Ditto with some friends from SA--want to return to a sunnier clime but can't shift their house--its also been on for over a year.

I saw one EA go out of business in nearby Tewksbury. With EAs empty on weekends its a wonder how they manage to keep their doors open and pay staff to fake telephone calls all day long . Its amusing to walk into the larger EAs and watch them quickly pick up a phone and scribble on a notepad.

My 1/4 mile "test strip" of road on the way to work now has 10 houses for sale. A couple are marked "sold" but as they are STC they don't count as sales--just wishful thinking by owners who can't find a buyer without a chain around their necks.

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I saw one EA go out of business in nearby Tewksbury. With EAs empty on weekends its a wonder how they manage to keep their doors open and pay staff to fake telephone calls all day long . Its amusing to walk into the larger EAs and watch them quickly pick up a phone and scribble on a notepad.

Can I ask which EA went out of business in Tewkesbury?

I work near Tewkesbury so I know the area well. There are plenty of sold boards around at the minute...

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Can I ask which EA went out of business in Tewkesbury?

I work near Tewkesbury so I know the area well. There are plenty of sold boards around at the minute...

Don't remember the name--looked like an independent on the left side of the main high street area as you would enter the town from the East past the military depots. Almost at the roundabout where the other main shopping street branches off. The Abbey would be about 1/8th mile further west on the same side of the road.

When I looked around the place I saw very few clean "Sold" signs--most EAs around here are putting up "Sold" signs within days of a property going on the market (including 3 on my test strip of 1/4 mile entering Evesham). All of them are STC--in other words "Not Sold". It may be interesting to see if the "sold" houses would be interested in a cash buyer?

The psychological impact of a closing EA office is very powerful--the EAs must be pulling all the stops to avoid even one shutting down.

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From todays Evesham/Cotswold Journal..........

House prices forcing young to leave Vale

YOUNG people are being priced out of Worcestershire's rural communities, according to a council chief.

The managing director of Wychavon District Council, Jack Hegarty, has warned that with the continuing growth in people aspiring to live in the countryside, there is an increase in the number of youngsters leaving rural areas as property becomes unaffordable.

"This part of the region is low in unemployment but is a low-wage area. At three-and-half times their income, 70 per cent of people would not be able to get onto the property ladder," he added.

"Even if young people borrowed four-and-a-quarter times their income, 59 per cent would not be able to get on the property ladder."..........................

www.thisisevesham.co.uk

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From todays Evesham/Cotswold Journal..........

House prices forcing young to leave Vale

YOUNG people are being priced out of Worcestershire's rural communities, according to a council chief.

The managing director of Wychavon District Council, Jack Hegarty, has warned that with the continuing growth in people aspiring to live in the countryside, there is an increase in the number of youngsters leaving rural areas as property becomes unaffordable.

"This part of the region is low in unemployment but is a low-wage area. At three-and-half times their income, 70 per cent of people would not be able to get onto the property ladder," he added.

"Even if young people borrowed four-and-a-quarter times their income, 59 per cent would not be able to get on the property ladder."..........................

www.thisisevesham.co.uk

But.....did you read on into the property section of the paper? Notice the unusually large number of "new instructions" and, most telling of all, a large proportion of homes for sale with NO CHAIN. Where there is no chain the seller is either STR, going overseas, or its a domestic bifurcation. One of the local EAs told me that there were quite a few people wanting to STR which accounted for the difficulty we found a few months ago in finding a rental (we were a forced STR due to a job move).

Also--according to the Office of the PM the West Midlands is enjoying the highest rate of HPC next to the West Coutry--OO ARRR

Edited by Realistbear

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But.....did you read on into the property section of the paper? Notice the unusually large number of "new instructions" and, most telling of all, a large proportion of homes for sale with NO CHAIN. Where there is no chain the seller is either STR, going overseas, or its a domestic bifurcation. One of the local EAs told me that there were quite a few people wanting to STR which accounted for the difficulty we found a few months ago in finding a rental (we were a forced STR due to a job move).

Also--according to the Office of the PM the West Midlands is enjoying the highest rate of HPC next to the West Coutry--OO ARRR

RB You're right.

I've also noticed many properties that have now been for sale for a year or more, many advertised as 'under offer' or SSTC for months before, usually, 'falling through' and coming back on again, increasing numbers of price reductions usually between 5 and 10% but sometimes more, and relatively very little going through to completion.

The market is screwed round here and the only way for prices is down.

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I worked at the Evesham/Cotswold journal until this July. Before I left there was lots of concern in the ad dept about 'the recession' - spoken about as though it had already kicked in.

A lot of that had to to with the ea advertisments, which are far and away the biggest section of the paper. I don't think the ads have ever got less, but the eas have enormous power to force massive discounts when it suits. They know that without them there wouldn't be an Evesham Journal.

Also, from personal experience I know a fair few FTBers in Pershore making belated attempts to 'catch the boat' or 'mount the ladder' or whatever.

Finally, can somebody please alter the title of this thread - there's no such place as Evesham Valley, it's the Vale of Evesham.

Slightly rambling post, I apologise, but I'm at work on a Sunday and struggling.

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I've been tracking quite a few properties in Worcester/Evesham/Pershore area and apart from the fact that most are not selling, I have noticed a large number being withdrawn from market - so perhaps they will reappear next spring?

I've also been tracking a few properties that have been SSTC to for over a year now... I wonder what that tells you?

BTW - I drove through Bewdley today and couldn't belive just how many 'for sale' boards are up in the town...

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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