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Warwickshire Lad

Howard Gets It Right

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4299490.stm

I'm not a fan of Michael Howard or the Tories, but IMHO he's got it right here.

The homeowning classes of the UK are currently feeling smug and satisfied with 300% house price inflation, along with the endless MEW, holidays, BTL portfolios and trips out in their 4x4s.

A crash and severe recession with negative equity that is even worse than 1993 will undoubtedly turn them over the Tories en-masse.

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Guest Riser
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4299490.stm

I'm not a fan of Michael Howard or the Tories, but IMHO he's got it right here.

The homeowning classes of the UK are currently feeling smug and satisfied with 300% house price inflation, along with the endless MEW, holidays, BTL portfolios and trips out in their 4x4s.

A crash and severe recession with negative equity that is even worse than 1993 will undoubtedly turn them over the Tories en-masse.

Problem with this is that any mention of a recession or house prie crash will be dismissed by many as tory propaganda. Just watch labour turn this around by suggesting that even talk of a recession will make one happen, they will then no doubt blame the tories for talking down the economy.

Edited by Riser

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4299490.stm

I'm not a fan of Michael Howard or the Tories, but IMHO he's got it right here.

The homeowning classes of the UK are currently feeling smug and satisfied with 300% house price inflation, along with the endless MEW, holidays, BTL portfolios and trips out in their 4x4s.

A crash and severe recession with negative equity that is even worse than 1993 will undoubtedly turn them over the Tories en-masse.

What, still expecting something for nothing again?

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He should have kept his mouth shut.

We are already plunging into recession he had no need to say anything. This recession will be one of the worst. Its not a case of sitting bored s***tless, in your council property on benefits for months on end now. Now your home is at risk if you don't have a job, so is your family life, so is your life.

How long will it last. Until people are prepared to seriously look at the way we run our economy, the banking system included and the CEO's that will hang the populace out to dry for a few dollars more.

It is not money that creates national wealth but peoples work. We need a plan and a designed economy to achieve that objective.

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Why does it have to be a disaster that makes the Brit want a change of government? Why does it need the opposition to behave stealthily to obtain support? As WL posted all the self-mismanaged, smug and greedy will emigrate to the Tories. Is this not in a hope for better consumer controlled economy or just out of anger and frustration from the this government which they believed gave them so much uncontrolled financial irresponsibility that lead them to self destruct? What will they expect of the Tories? Another free lunch? IMHO. No, nothing but hardship whilst they protect those at the top at the expense of those at the bottom. Not much different as it has always been.

Apologies for not a very erudite post, but that how it looks after 50 years of suffering British politics.

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Why does it have to be a disaster that makes the Brit want a change of government?

Because most British people are fat and lazy and think the government will make us rich for doing nothing. So long as a party continues to reinforce that impression, British people will vote for them.

Only an economic catastrophe will cause fundamental changes in this country: look what it took before people were willing to vote for Thatcher.

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Only an economic catastrophe will cause fundamental changes in this country: look what it took before people were willing to vote for Thatcher.

Thatcher resigned in 1990 at the beginning of the last recession and probably saved the Tory party from losing the 1992 election. I wonder whether Blair will follow her lead and do the same?

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look what it took before people were willing to vote for Thatcher.

Look what it took before people were unwilling to vote for the Tories - despite about 6 million people unemployed in the rest of the UK the selfish sods in the South East continued to vote them in until their house prices fell and their own jobs were in danger.

Hopefully, the Tories will not get their snouts back in the trough for another 50 years.

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Only an economic catastrophe will cause fundamental changes in this country: look what it took before people were willing to vote for Thatcher.

Check the records - you'll find that the economic catastrophe happened _during_ Thatcher's watch. That's one reason why the British electorate have failed to support the Tories for three successive elections. You should deal in facts, not wishful fiction.

p

Thatcher resigned in 1990...

Thatcher 'resigned' after her hand-picked colleagues bluntly told her that she was a liability. How right they were. She left grudgingly, tearfully and without grace. Poor unhinged old bat.

p

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Check the records - you'll find that the economic catastrophe happened _during_ Thatcher's watch.

That's odd. I don't remember the IMF having to bail Britain out of bankruptcy while Thatcher was in charge?

You should deal in facts, not wishful fiction.

Does the phrase 'Winter of discontent' mean anything to you? Some of us lived through it and understand very well why Thatcher was elected and why so many people supported her as she destroyed the unions.

I'm no great Thatcher fan, but had she not been elected we'd be a third world nation by now. Even Idi Amin was offering to send aid to the UK in the 70s because it was in such an appalling state after decades of misrule (and under the pre-Thatcher Tories as well as Labour)!

Look what it took before people were unwilling to vote for the Tories - despite about 6 million people unemployed in the rest of the UK the selfish sods in the South East continued to vote them in until their house prices fell and their own jobs were in danger

And also because Labour were unelectable until Bliar took it over and turned it into Tory Lite.

Edited by MarkG

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That's odd. I don't remember the IMF having to bail Britain out of bankruptcy while Thatcher was in charge?

And no doubt you do not recall the 6 million people who were unemployed and had no hope of finding work because there simply wasn't any. The despair led to suicides and to this day many people who were unemployed during that time still bare the scars and are still playing catch-up.

Thatcher WRECKED millions of people's lives.

ITN recently asked for the defining news shot of the past 50 years - I reckon the unhinged old bat leaving Downing Street in tears is one.

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p

Thatcher 'resigned' after her hand-picked colleagues bluntly told her that she was a liability. How right they were. She left grudgingly, tearfully and without grace. Poor unhinged old bat.

p

You are correct.

'Liability' is also a word beginning to be used to describe Blair. I suspect he will also need to be pushed. But it's beginning to echo the early 90s both economically and politically.

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And no doubt you do not recall the 6 million people who were unemployed and had no hope of finding work because there simply wasn't any.

You mean the ones who are now on 'disability benefit' so Blair can fiddle the unemployment figures?

Thatcher WRECKED millions of people's lives.

So did Labour in the 70s. So have NuLab thanks to their artifically low interest rates which have priced the younger people of this country out of the housing market.

Wrecking people's lives is what governments do best.

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MarkG,

If life under the Tories was so great, why do you think that the British people have so convincingly rebuffed them over the last three elections. Because they have short memories, perhaps? Or they are ungrateful or are just stupid, I suppose.

People remember:

1. House price crashes (On topic!) You'll remember how great that was, I'm sure!

2. Interest rates at twice present rates for most of the time and, for a short period, three times the current rates. Remember the joy of that!

3. Mass unemployment - deliberately created by Tories to put the lower orders in their place. You must be proud of being a supporter of a party that broke even the obscene unemployment levels of 1930's depression.

4. Highest level of days lost through strikes. I bet you didn't remember that.

5. Bankruptcies for both individuals and businesses at record levels. Great days for families being thrown out of their homes and placed in cheap B&B's.

6. Wildly swinging the handbag at fellow Europeans for photo opportunities yet signing away more powers to the EU than any other British Prime Minister. We don't hear much about that these days, do we?

I could go on. The electorate's attitude to the Tories is not based on myths but on real, harsh, memories that will stay with them. You stay proud of Thatcherism, if you like, but you'll be in a minority.

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If life under the Tories was so great

Where did I say it was? Heck, I even quite explicitly stated that I'm _NOT_ a great fan of Thatcher. You might think that might give you some kind of clue.

The British economy was vastly better off under Thatcher than under the Tory and Labour governments of the 70s. It was still crap, and it's even crapper today after years of Tory Lite rule.

The electorate's attitude to the Tories is not based on myths but on real, harsh, memories that will stay with them.

Then why did they vote to replace Tory with Tory Lite? John Major was more socialist than Tony Blair.

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lets not forget that the party which changed BTL lending laws in 1996 were the house obsessed tories.

of which michael howard was a member.

the tories were always an economic swindle, they simply sold everything to cover the reality gap. nulabour simply lend it. when the tories get back into power - what are they going to sell off this time ?

how are they going to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

magic up some global manufacturing competitiveness ?

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lets not forget that the party which changed BTL lending laws in 1996 were the house obsessed tories.

1996 was well after Thatcher was kicked out. The Tories very quickly reverted to their usual inept selves afterwards.

of which michael howard was a member.

I think the odds of Howard getting to the next election without being stabbed in the back are pretty slim :). Didn't he even pre-announce his resignation some time back?

how are they going to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

A good question. Short of a 'Thatcher 2.0' who's willing to satck 90% of government employees and take a scythe to pointless regulations, I think this country will be screwed regardless of who's running it: manufacturing is unaffordable here, the oil is gone, and service jobs are being shipped abroad. What's left?

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4299490.stm

I'm not a fan of Michael Howard or the Tories, but IMHO he's got it right here.

The homeowning classes of the UK are currently feeling smug and satisfied with 300% house price inflation, along with the endless MEW, holidays, BTL portfolios and trips out in their 4x4s.

A crash and severe recession with negative equity that is even worse than 1993 will undoubtedly turn them over the Tories en-masse.

so they will dicth the party which has just given them a recession for the party which gave them 2 recessions ?

surely many people will wake up and vote lib-dem .

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surely many people will wake up and vote lib-dem

Why? Far-left socialists have been unelectable since the 70s: even Labour figured that out, which is why they were able to beat John Major.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
surely many people will wake up and vote lib-dem .

A lot of people think that voting for Lib/Dem (or any other minority party to be a waste of a vote.

It's almost like they see their vote is a betting slip (you have to back a side with a good chance of winning).

As someone who remembers the IMF loan crises (1976) and the winter of discontent (1978-79) it was easy to see that the Labour government of the time didn't have a hope of winning the 1979 election, forced on them as it was by a vote of no confidence (on an SNP motion on devolution). I hated Thatcher but really, given what had just taken place that winter, how could she lose? Such was the general mood of the time that even our 1977 Eurovision Song Contest entry was about the state of the country ("Rock Bottom").

Labour's majority was also VERY slim (anyone remember the Lib-Lab pact of March 1977 which helped keep Labour in office?). They also depended on support from the SNP, which was withdrawn early in 1979.

They might have had a better chance of winning in Autumn 1978. Things were looking up and Labour had regained some of its popularity. Had Jim Callaghan gone to the polls then, political history in this country might have been very different. And certainly he could not have anticipated how bad things would get that winter.

Edited by Bart of Darkness

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MarkG,

If life under the Tories was so great, why do you think that the British people have so convincingly rebuffed them over the last three elections. Because they have short memories, perhaps? Or they are ungrateful or are just stupid, I suppose.

People remember:

1. House price crashes (On topic!) You'll remember how great that was, I'm sure!

2. Interest rates at twice present rates for most of the time and, for a short period, three times the current rates. Remember the joy of that!

3. Mass unemployment - deliberately created by Tories to put the lower orders in their place. You must be proud of being a supporter of a party that broke even the obscene unemployment levels of 1930's depression.

4. Highest level of days lost through strikes. I bet you didn't remember that.

5. Bankruptcies for both individuals and businesses at record levels. Great days for families being thrown out of their homes and placed in cheap B&B's.

6. Wildly swinging the handbag at fellow Europeans for photo opportunities yet signing away more powers to the EU than any other British Prime Minister. We don't hear much about that these days, do we?

I could go on. The electorate's attitude to the Tories is not based on myths but on real, harsh, memories that will stay with them. You stay proud of Thatcherism, if you like, but you'll be in a minority.

I can't help thinking we are soon to see a near repeat of this thanks to the people you so obviously admire.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Now members of the Jury who is the real guilty one. <_<

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Looking back over the past 40 years of house price movements provides an interesting backdrop to the present day. It gives an impressive indication of how far the housing market (and personal wealth in general) have come over that time.

Forty years ago, Labour was in power under Harold Wilson and house prices (and people’s income) were very different to what they are in 2005. Believe it or not, the average house price in 1964 was £3,360, and average annual income was £1,000.

You would not have thought that £1,000 would have bought much, but at the time a pint of milk cost 4p, a dozen large eggs 18p, a loaf of white bread 6p, and a pint of draught bitter 8p. A litre of four-star petrol cost 5p.

Today, prices could not be more different. The average house stands at around £171,000 and, suffice it to say, everyday consumables are much more expensive. Average earnings are 28 times what they were in 1964. The average wage for a British worker now stands at £28,000.

Conservative government (1970-1974)

In 1971 the most extensive industrial strife since the General Strike was seen, as 1.5 million workers protested against the Industrial Relations Bill. The government’s Budget (The Barber Boom) and the freeing up of the consumer credit restrictions helped fuel a sudden rise in inflation and higher wage demands. December 1973 saw the introduction of the three-day working week as the miner’s strike cut available energy sources. House price inflation rose sharply and peaked in 1973 at over 40 per cent per annum, a level never since seen in the UK. Real house price inflation (allowing for retail inflation) saw the average annual house price rise hit 15 per cent under Ted Heath’s premiership.

Labour government (1974-1979)

Following the 1973 peak, house price inflation fell back sharply in 1974 and 1975. Inflation, however, in the UK soared. In 1975 inflation topped 25 per cent; hospital workers were given a 74 per cent pay rise. Home ownership was at around 50 per cent and interest tax relief for mortgage payments was set at £25,000. Plans for a Channel Tunnel were abandoned. 1976 saw the ‘Winter of Discontent’ as the wage-price spiral was in full swing. During the 1970s real interest rates (mortgage rates less consumer price inflation) moved sharply negative, boosting the housing market in 1975. Harold Wilson’s tenure in Number 10 resulted in average annual real house price inflation going into reverse (-12 per cent per annum). Jim Callaghan’s succession restored it to 4 per cent.

Conservative government (1979-1990)

The election of Margaret Thatcher saw monetary policy and the focus on interest rates as a key economic policy to reduce inflation. Much stricter labour laws resulted in lower levels of industrial strife and efforts were made to boost the private sector and entrepreneurship. Right-to-buy allowed tenants to buy their council houses at a price discount. As a result over one million additional people became homeowners. As a further incentive to house buying, Mortgage Interest Tax Relief was increased in the Budget of 1983 to £30,000. Average annual real house price inflation was 3 per cent under Margaret Thatcher.

Conservative government (1990-1997)

The replacement of Margaret Thatcher by John Major saw the house boom of the late 1980s turn into a spectacular bust. Entry into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and a subsequent run on sterling saw interest rates peak at their highest-ever level of 15.4 per cent. Homeowners’ already stretched incomes broke under the strain and negative equity impacted over 1.7 million households. Mortgage Interest Tax Relief was gradually reduced and by April 1998 tax relief was restricted to 10 per cent. Political necessity forced the government to leave the ERM and bank base rates fell back but the damage had been done. Average real annual house price movement during this period was -2 per cent.

Labour government (1997-)

Labour came to power in May 1997 and announced that the Bank of England was to have independent control over the setting of interest rates. The bank base rate ended 1997 at 7.25 per cent. Unemployment fell during 1998, the housing market rose, stamp duty on property transactions was increased on higher value properties. 1999 saw a rapid rise in house prices particularly in the South East with house prices in London rising by almost 30 per cent during the year. The government announced that from April 2000 Mortgage Interest Tax Relief was to be abolished. House prices continued to move sharply ahead in the years that followed. So far, the Blair government has seen real house price inflation of 9 per cent per annum

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Today, prices could not be more different. The average house stands at around £171,000 and, suffice it to say, everyday consumables are much more expensive. Average earnings are 28 times what they were in 1964. The average wage for a British worker now stands at £28,000.

are you sure of this ? if that is the case then it is the MEAN wage, do you know what the MEDIAN wage is ?

I think the MEDIAN is a better guide as it is not skewed by excessive earnings at the top end such as all our

wonderful CHILD DEVELOPMENT OFFICERS on 70 grand.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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