Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
The Masked Tulip

House Prices: What Next?

Recommended Posts

House prices are under pressure, yet Nationwide's May report shows house prices having recovered all the ground lost since last August.

That compares to the Halifax saying the average house price had fallen at its fastest yearly rate in nearly two years, in the same month, down 4.2 per cent.

The latest Rightmove report stated that home sellers' expectations have 'romped away from reality' and asking prices are heading for a fall.

It point out that mortgage approvals are running at half of pre-crisis levels and unsold homes are piling up on estate agents' books.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1671748/Property-prices-What-expect--news-predictions.html#ixzz1Q9Fdo9d2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I for one have simply stopped bothering to look for property. Give it another 6 months.

Although I am going to be going through those 6 months with a grin on my face.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The housing market seems to be much the same as the general economy, it's a zombie, dead but lurching forward anyway, looking for direction.

Personal feeling is it's going to be a slow grind down, unless something blows and interest rates are forced up or a loaf of bread suddenly costs a fiver.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can they honestly be expecting Nationwide to report increases? Why would they be that different to each other? Surely its just two large bags of mortgages that have stopped growing and which people are struggling to repay?

Edited by W1zard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I for one have simply stopped bothering to look for property. Give it another 6 months.

Although I am going to be going through those 6 months with a grin on my face.

OK, you think you can "sit back" and all will come to you? Its a different thing to track HPC news than to actually buy a house you want to live in.

When you say you've "stopped bothering". Why is that? What makes you think it will be different in 6 months time?

IMO, the best houses are ones that rarely come up for sale, because people enjoy living there too much.

Also, the houses considered desirable by most, almost always sell for more than you think they should.

Like anything in life, If you're serious about something, don't mess about if you find it.

If you're going to do something, then do it as efficiently quickly as you can - Snooze you lose is always valid - even in a slowdown like this.

You should re-consider your "can't be bothered" attitude as nothing to smile about - its just a malaise on your part.

That vapid grin is just you trying to justify slothful indecision - a character trait that will make you lose in the longterm.

It might seem to you that you're "doing the right thing" with an illusion of bring in control at the moment, but the truth is, you are doing nothing....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, you think you can "sit back" and all will come to you? Its a different thing to track HPC news than to actually buy a house you want to live in.

When you say you've "stopped bothering". Why is that? What makes you think it will be different in 6 months time?

IMO, the best houses are ones that rarely come up for sale, because people enjoy living there too much.

Also, the houses considered desirable by most, almost always sell for more than you think they should.

Like anything in life, If you're serious about something, don't mess about if you find it.

If you're going to do something, then do it as efficiently quickly as you can - Snooze you lose is always valid - even in a slowdown like this.

You should re-consider your "can't be bothered" attitude as nothing to smile about - its just a malaise on your part.

That vapid grin is just you trying to justify slothful indecision - a character trait that will make you lose in the longterm.

It might seem to you that you're "doing the right thing" with an illusion of bring in control at the moment, but the truth is, you are doing nothing....

+1

" The real risk is doing nothing" - Denis Waitely

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, you think you can "sit back" and all will come to you? Its a different thing to track HPC news than to actually buy a house you want to live in.

When you say you've "stopped bothering". Why is that? What makes you think it will be different in 6 months time?

IMO, the best houses are ones that rarely come up for sale, because people enjoy living there too much.

Also, the houses considered desirable by most, almost always sell for more than you think they should.

Like anything in life, If you're serious about something, don't mess about if you find it.

If you're going to do something, then do it as efficiently quickly as you can - Snooze you lose is always valid - even in a slowdown like this.

You should re-consider your "can't be bothered" attitude as nothing to smile about - its just a malaise on your part.

That vapid grin is just you trying to justify slothful indecision - a character trait that will make you lose in the longterm.

It might seem to you that you're "doing the right thing" with an illusion of bring in control at the moment, but the truth is, you are doing nothing....

Speaking as a potential cash buyer, I wouldn't dream of buying a house at the moment.

The interest on the cash, that I would otherwise use to buy a house, is more than covering my rent and not having a large chunk of my capital tied up in an illiquid, depreciating, asset seems pretty sensible to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can they honestly be expecting Nationwide to report increases? Why would they be that different to each other? Surely its just two large bags of mortgages that have stopped growing and which people are struggling to repay?

Could it be because their lending criteria have tighten-up? And financially safer applicants tend to go for above average properties?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, you think you can "sit back" and all will come to you? Its a different thing to track HPC news than to actually buy a house you want to live in.

When you say you've "stopped bothering". Why is that? What makes you think it will be different in 6 months time?

IMO, the best houses are ones that rarely come up for sale, because people enjoy living there too much.

Also, the houses considered desirable by most, almost always sell for more than you think they should.

Like anything in life, If you're serious about something, don't mess about if you find it.

If you're going to do something, then do it as efficiently quickly as you can - Snooze you lose is always valid - even in a slowdown like this.

You should re-consider your "can't be bothered" attitude as nothing to smile about - its just a malaise on your part.

That vapid grin is just you trying to justify slothful indecision - a character trait that will make you lose in the longterm.

It might seem to you that you're "doing the right thing" with an illusion of bring in control at the moment, but the truth is, you are doing nothing....

:lol:

Someone is upset with falling house prices. :lol:

:D

Ah... this post has put a smile on my face. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OK, you think you can "sit back" and all will come to you? Its a different thing to track HPC news than to actually buy a house you want to live in.

When you say you've "stopped bothering". Why is that? What makes you think it will be different in 6 months time?

Err ... cos a market is never static ?

Do I get the prize ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+1

" The real risk is doing nothing" - Denis Waitely

Not actively looking at houses is not doing nothing......doing nothing is not getting out of bed. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the most important price forecast indicator for the medium-term future (3-6 moths) :

(...) unsold homes are piling up on estate agents' books.

:)

sale_inv_real-hpi.jpg?w=640&h=416

Chart.1 shows that the RICS SIR has a strong correlation with house price inflation. It is evident from the chart that sales-to-inventory leads house price growth by 3-9 months.

Source: http://proprateanalyst.wordpress.com/2010/12/06/sales-to-inventory-and-house-prices/

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you say you've "stopped bothering". Why is that? What makes you think it will be different in 6 months time?

Seriously???

Are you for real......... What direction do you think the market is going at the moment, do you think the global economy is improving?

There is a simple question I often ask people to suss out if they have their head screwed on right: "do you think the global economy is in better shape now, or before the bailouts."

You would be amazed how many people think we were on the brink, but now its all dandy becuase more debt came to the rescue.

You should re-consider your "can't be bothered" attitude as nothing to smile about - its just a malaise on your part.

That vapid grin is just you trying to justify slothful indecision - a character trait that will make you lose in the longterm.

Sorry, but do I know you? Did I F@@k your sister or something?, whats with the anxious and deseperate personal attacks?

Property is going down my freind, buying in six months time will save me a lot of debt, so thats why I'm grinning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could it be because their lending criteria have tighten-up? And financially safer applicants tend to go for above average properties?

Nationwide tends to have a southern bias and as London and surrounds prices are growing according to DCLG etc. so I suspect that this is a reflection of that.

I think tightening of lending criteria is more visible in Halifax as there have been some sudden step changes in the Halifax data over the last 2.5 years (post Lloyd's takeover) that don't fit in with the other market data (with the right lags etc.). Halifax's favourite tightening mechanism appears to be conservative valuation reports leading to a sudden drop in a single month which is particularly obvious in it very normalised data.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, you think you can "sit back" and all will come to you?

....

IMO, the best houses are ones that rarely come up for sale, because people enjoy living there too much.

Also, the houses considered desirable by most, almost always sell for more than you think they should.

I did back in 1989, and it all came to me in 1992. Strictly speaking, I went to work on the continent and returned with a decent bag of cash to find I was the only buyer in town.

The best houses will always command a premium, but they are far more likely to come up for sale in the wake of unemployment and high interest rates when the owners cannot hang onto them.

Repossessions are rising with very low interest rates and there are more and more job losses, the trickle of properties coming onto the market could soon turn into a flood.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can they honestly be expecting Nationwide to report increases? Why would they be that different to each other? Surely its just two large bags of mortgages that have stopped growing and which people are struggling to repay?

Problem is, with transactions so low, the ratio of mortgages (which obviously is what nationwide/halifax data is based on) relative to cash sales decreasing and the changes in the mix of housing sold (i.e. relatively more high end homes) this is likely to bugger up the samples on which these figures are based. And given that NW only has roughly 8% share of the mortgage market anyway, all these things make the current figures not particularly reliable.

Nice bearish article BTW (and will probably be quite widely read) - and we even get a mention:

However, while the house price crashers may always be likely to vote for the biggest fall possible, the overwhelming sentiment in the poll is undeniably negative - just 14 per cent have voted for prices to rise in the next 12 months.

:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nationwide tends to have a southern bias and as London and surrounds prices are growing according to DCLG etc. so I suspect that this is a reflection of that.

I think tightening of lending criteria is more visible in Halifax as there have been some sudden step changes in the Halifax data over the last 2.5 years (post Lloyd's takeover) that don't fit in with the other market data (with the right lags etc.). Halifax's favourite tightening mechanism appears to be conservative valuation reports leading to a sudden drop in a single month which is particularly obvious in it very normalised data.

If you look at either Halifax's or NW's methodology (I forget which), they claim to have god rid of this bias a few years back (presumably through their mix-adjustment) although it would probably explain the difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the only places where houses sell in any significant quantity is in London, where they are more expensive than elsewhere and still rising, isn't this likely to skew the Halliwide data up?

Edited by rantnrave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a simple question I often ask people to suss out if they have their head screwed on right: "do you think the global economy is in better shape now, or before the bailouts."

You would be amazed how many people think we were on the brink, but now its all dandy becuase more debt came to the rescue.

Trouble is if people just watch the regular news and don't question anything then they will simply believe the tripe they are being fed.

Ten minutes on here would probably scare the bejesus out of most people, especially if they delve into any of the tfh threads :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More supply is preferable to less supply if you're a buyer.

Last time I bought was in '96. Awash with supply. I viewed perhaps 50 of the type I was looking for in a 1 mile radius. That was only the relatively 'good' stuff. Out of that there were only 2 I liked. 1 fell through, the other I bought 4% below asking before it even went in the window. Of course I also took a 'hit' on the one I sold.

So it's partly correct - Buy when supply is plentiful but it doesn't mean 95% of that supply won't be dross. It does mean however that it's almost impossible to make a poor financial decision. A pile of rubble would have trebled in the following 10 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'House prices are stuck in the doldrums and that should make it a buyer's market - the problem is many of those buyers are struggling to find anything decent to buy.'

Probably not what the author meant, but having had a look around, there is very little of decent quality and spaciousness that I would be willing to put down a fraction of a million pounds for..!

Edited by guitarman001

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'The UK's high house prices are a drag on its economy, they hamper movement, encourage boom and bust and leave it vulnerable to shocks. Narrowing the gap between property prices and wages and making buying a home less of a gamble, would be a good thing.'

Good last paragrapgh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the only places where houses sell in any significant quantity is in London, where they are more expensive than elsewhere and still rising, isn't this likely to skew the Halliwide data up?

Hum, they maybe selling, they maybe more expensive but I would not agree that the communal garden 3 bed semi or leasehold flat is rising in value. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

whats with the anxious and deseperate personal attacks?

Property is going down my freind, buying in six months time will save me a lot of debt, so thats why I'm grinning.

You're not prepared to take on other peoples debt for them and bail them out with your future earnings! How dare you! Waiting was plainly the worst choice, now you have flexibility and freedom and can time your entry into the market, if only you were less slothlike and took on masses of debt you couldn't afford to repay at the top of the market. Bet you feel silly now don't you?!

Buy my overpriced house! Waa waa waa!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.