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Realistbear

Just 27% Of Manufacturers Plan Price Hikes

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8590197/Inflation-keeps-rising-as-manufacturers-plan-price-hike.html

A balance of
27pc of manufacturers said they will raise output prices
over the coming quarter, an increase on the 24pc figure recorded last month and above the long-term average of 1pc, according to CBI's latest industrial trends survey.
Large firms, with more than 500 staff, said they will put prices up at the fastest rate since January 1989 while "predictions for output price inflation remain markedly above long-run averages in all size and sector groups", the CBI added.

Just think what would happen IF Merv did hike and manufacturers suddenly found the cost of money inflating forcing them to jack up prices to pay for it. Little wonder Merv is stuck.

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Also when it says a balance of 23% will raise prices it doesn't mean that 77% won't.

With consumers cutting down spending any attempts to jack up prices will fail.

I am buying various shit for my house and have noticed everything is getting cheaper--paint, for example is being discounted by more than a third. German appliances are as cheap as I have seen them for years. Carpet now under £20 a sq M--I remember paying close to £30 last time I did that exercise. Shops say demand is low and manufacturers can't move the stock unless they cut. IMO we are headed straight into a sharp recession and spedning will drop far more than it has to date--we could see double digit YoY falls this side of winter.

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The fact that RB is a deflationist should tell you everything you need to know about where prices are going.

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I can see why spending would fall - I can't see why prices would. If making things is more expensive then thing's will have to cost more or retailers will make a loss. Stagflation :(

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Manufacturers will be hiking prices, as they cannot pay for higher input costs without passing them on for long. The UK is a small Island. If the people here don't buy things, people in other countries will.

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Manufacturers will be hiking prices, as they cannot pay for higher input costs without passing them on for long. The UK is a small Island. If the people here don't buy things, people in other countries will.

That's the key point - global demand is still rising. We're just getting a smaller share of the pie.

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I can see why spending would fall - I can't see why prices would. If making things is more expensive then thing's will have to cost more or retailers will make a loss. Stagflation :(

A Peugeot dealer was telling me that manufacturers force them to hold stock and at high IR. They have to reduce prices to move the metal or pay the manufacturer ever increasing rates of interest.

Unless wages keep pace crashing demand will do what it always does to the supply-demand-price equation.

The bubbles are about to burst* all over the world. It has to happen to reset.

*Deflate

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That's the key point - global demand is still rising. We're just getting a smaller share of the pie.

The Far Easst are still going at it but for how long? Nothing lasts forever and the Chinese dream is about to end IMO--hyper inflation--civil unwrest and the usual "Mandate of Heaven" chnage of regime after a few years of bloodshed and revolution.

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A Peugeot dealer was telling me that manufacturers force them to hold stock and at high IR. They have to reduce prices to move the metal or pay the manufacturer ever increasing rates of interest.

Unless wages keep pace crashing demand will do what it always does to the supply-demand-price equation.

The bubbles are about to burst* all over the world. It has to happen to reset.

*Deflate

I think he's just trying to con you into thinking you're getting a good deal. You can't sell things at a loss and stay in business.

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With consumers cutting down spending any attempts to jack up prices will fail.

I am buying various shit for my house and have noticed everything is getting cheaper--paint, for example is being discounted by more than a third. German appliances are as cheap as I have seen them for years. Carpet now under £20 a sq M--I remember paying close to £30 last time I did that exercise. Shops say demand is low and manufacturers can't move the stock unless they cut. IMO we are headed straight into a sharp recession and spedning will drop far more than it has to date--we could see double digit YoY falls this side of winter.

At which the government will print and spend money for you... as per here

See the other thread about NHS gluten free foods?

This is a microcosm of what the government does everywhere.

ANY fall in buying will be met with the government printing presses, thus consumers spend 1bn less the government spends 1bn more propping everything up.

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I think he's just trying to con you into thinking you're getting a good deal. You can't sell things at a loss and stay in business.

Most car dealers are relying on servicning to make up for the dops in profits in sales. The whole country is subsidising itself and the well is drying up.

Recession before the end of this year IMO. Much higher levels of unemployment and falling wages. TBH, I think it turned in April and the bond markets are going to kick in soon with higher IR accross the board despite what the BoE try to do.

Its game over I am afraid. Busted.

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I think he's just trying to con you into thinking you're getting a good deal. You can't sell things at a loss and stay in business.

You can make losses and stay in business, but only for a short time. Its about minimising your losses. If you close down you still have a ton of overheads to pay therefore take all these as losses.

If you make just below break even your losses are smaller. Do it ALl focus has been doing this for the past 3 years before it went under.

The kicker is that companies can only do this for a short time and then they must eventually break even or make profits to cover the bad period or have a massive war chest (or government backing) to be able to hibernate.

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Most car dealers are relying on servicning to make up for the dops in profits in sales. The whole country is subsidising itself and the well is drying up.

Recession before the end of this year IMO. Much higher levels of unemployment and falling wages. TBH, I think it turned in April and the bond markets are going to kick in soon with higher IR accross the board despite what the BoE try to do.

Its game over I am afraid. Busted.

Printing press time.

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The fact that RB is a deflationist should tell you everything you need to know about where prices are going.

+1

Many have already put up prices, the 73% probably just mean no more price hikes for now

with higher IR accross the board despite what the BoE try to do.

Interest rates going to 0 it is then.

Edited by inflating

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Our input prices are STILL rising! We will be forced to raise prices again soon. Even if means we sell less. It's better to sell less stock for a profit than a lot of stock at a loss...

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Most car dealers are relying on servicning to make up for the dops in profits in sales. The whole country is subsidising itself and the well is drying up.

Recession before the end of this year IMO. Much higher levels of unemployment and falling wages. TBH, I think it turned in April and the bond markets are going to kick in soon with higher IR accross the board despite what the BoE try to do.

Its game over I am afraid. Busted.

I agree with you on this point. Prices will be going up, but as many people will not be paying them, many shops car dealers etc will probably close down. They cannot sell things at a loss just because people cannot pay more. The manufactured goods will be bought elsewhere instead.

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With consumers cutting down spending any attempts to jack up prices will fail.

I am buying various shit for my house and have noticed everything is getting cheaper--paint, for example is being discounted by more than a third. German appliances are as cheap as I have seen them for years. Carpet now under £20 a sq M--I remember paying close to £30 last time I did that exercise. Shops say demand is low and manufacturers can't move the stock unless they cut. IMO we are headed straight into a sharp recession and spedning will drop far more than it has to date--we could see double digit YoY falls this side of winter.

German dishwashers? Meaningless.

The important stuff eg Food , Fuel , Electricity , Water & Council charges are all going through the roof.

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I agree with you on this point. Prices will be going up, but as many people will not be paying them, many shops car dealers etc will probably close down. They cannot sell things at a loss just because people cannot pay more. The manufactured goods will be bought elsewhere instead.

Not only that, there is over-capacity and if you add that to falling demand you have the sort of stuff serious recessions are made of. I have no idea why people fear deflation so much, it is every HPCers dream come true! Japan has had it off and on (more on than off) since the 80's and they are doing just fine. Houses are still less in Japan than they were 30 year ago and no one is starving there AFAIK.

And you are right--once the stock is sold off they wil not make more to sell at a loss. Overcapacity will have to decline over the coming years so that less is being made. Demand will return and the cycle will begin again. But first the bubbles have to pop (deflate). UNless, of course, Brown was right and we have eliminated the economic cycle!

WE have 3 carpet shops in our nearby town and fewer transactions that ever. I am finding excellent deals and the shops are telling me that manufacturers are overstocked and will subsidise the retailers to get the stuff off the shelves. 40 ounce 80/20 wool carpet for £20 sq M? I haven't seen prices that low for many years. And houses are the key driver of our economy.

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WE have 3 carpet shops in our nearby town and fewer transactions that ever. I am finding excellent deals and the shops are telling me that manufacturers are overstocked and will subsidise the retailers to get the stuff off the shelves. 40 ounce 80/20 wool carpet for £20 sq M? I haven't seen prices that low for many years. And houses are the key driver of our economy.

Are you a carpet muncher RB? :lol:

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The fact that RB is a deflationist should tell you everything you need to know about where prices are going.

The massive defaults that are coming will take out the banks, which in turn will have to be saved by the taxpayer (again). The money for all this will come straight off the printing press pushing inflation up even higher.

If RB truly believed in this deflation from hell stuff he pumps out then he wouldn't be buying a house.

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The massive defaults that are coming will take out the banks, which in turn will have to be saved by the taxpayer (again). The money for all this will come straight off the printing press pushing inflation up even higher.

This + 1 +1000000000000000

EDITED for inflation ;)

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If only interest rates are negative, add in more printing and they will go deeply negative.

America went to QE2 and what happened to their inflation? Barely anything in realtion to the size of the stimulus and they are still in a deflationary trend. The law of diminshing returns has kicked in and ever increasing QE2 is having the reverse effect because the black hole is increasing faster than the money supply. Its the Japanese effect.

Its more to do with supply-demand-price than it is to do with IR and printing. If they print too much the bond markets take up the slack and with precarious credit ratings no one is going to risk the vengeance of the bond market.

IMO some on here are in for a big surprise as the unexpected trends will continue to many to miss expectations.

My advise is to diversify and not put all your eggs, or too many of them, into one particular basket. And in the meantime, embrace it, lower your debt and enjoy a nice HPC.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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