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Is Now The Time To Buy ? < 10-20%

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Could this be now the time to buy; if you got 10-20% off asking price ?

The arguments for, is the opportunity to buy at a time when many desperate hands want to lend money; soon that time may be up ? What if house prices dropped but the opportunity of buying multiplied by 3 ?.

Unless you had a huge deposit you may be forced out of the market. It could be better too pay the hard way down through the crash and reap the rewards and affordablity on the way back up. ie.. a 100% leap profit in 15 years turns into a 175% leap.

Just a thought.

Anyone ?

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I have seen plenty of places with 15% off the asking price.

Today I had an EA try to get me interested in another property, owner desperate to sell (I'm a proceedable buyer)

The trouble is that it's only now in the economic cycle that the jobs disappear, this usually lags the housing peak by about 2 years.

We're one year into this crash, I am going to wait at least another year, probably more.

By then I'm expecting at least 30% down, but I will play it as it comes.

Edited by BandWagon

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Hang fire IMO. This winter will highlight the current market for what it is.

The keenness for those to buy will follow every boom trend that has been before.

Sit back watch the market unravel.

Jump in when you feel comfortable with the commitment.

Mr Joe.

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I saw a property I was interested in, had been on the market for 3-4 months. Got reduced by 2K, so I sent the EA a cheeky email asking if they would accept 16K less, well couple of days later the house is removed from their website - probably sold :(

I can't find anything decent where a 10-20% off would be affordable for me.

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I saw a property I was interested in, had been on the market for 3-4 months. Got reduced by 2K, so I sent the EA a cheeky email asking if they would accept 16K less, well couple of days later the house is removed from their website - probably sold :(

I can't find anything decent where a 10-20% off would be affordable for me.

I made an offer the other day... well not a formal, just told the EA what price I was thinking of and if he thought it was worth making a formal offer.

The figure I mentioned was 50% less than asking price ;)

Of course, he said no... :P

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The tail end of this housing boom will drag in plenty. As said many times sentiment has kept this beast alive. Its been the great hope for plenty. Sentiment is changing and so will the value of houses. If it doesn't keep saving and wait until it does.

In the mean time focus on enjoying life. Being sadled with an overprice life consuming asset is not everything.

Mr Joe.

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Could this be now the time to buy; if you got 10-20% off asking price ?

I couldn't afford to buy at only 10~20% off current prices; in my case it's not a question of "timing the market" or anything like that. It must be nice to have the luxury of choosing at what point on the downslope to buy in; for me it's very simple: no crash=no home.

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Put an offer in at £250k on a house that was 310k last year. Nothing back yet. Will call tomorrow.

You put an offer in LAST YEAR and haven't heard yet. I would presume its a no then

:lol::lol::lol:

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30% off peak prices would not reflect historical rates of correction. For the past 50 years the dip has always reflected an approximate 50% of the peak. This was true for the crashes in the 70's, early and late 80's-90's (see "the Chart" on this site's home page). If HPI was in excess of 120% preceeding the crash of the 20's (the next correction) it follows that the dip will be around 60%. Of course, this is based on the presumption that history always repeats itself. It was once said that the only thing we learn from history is that we do not learn from history. I have decided to learn from history and wait until the correction goes well beyond 30%.

Incidentally, history shows that a "plateau" never follows a boom/bubble market. Never. In any event "plateau" is a mixed metaphor when we are talking about bubbles--better to use words like "burst" or "deflate rapidly," better yet, "pop!"

Patience is the best virtue to seek in this market. The VIs are trying hard to prop things up although it seems that Halifax is the only lender seeing blue skies ahead? I went into my local Halifax showroom this week and asked about repos and the smiles quickly turned to scowls!

:D

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I shall wait until next year, certainly after Xmas because the market should be completely dead by then. Again it may be good to wait for some more data then and who knows, it could really gather momentum.

It's still to risky moving into the market at the moment IMO. Especially if you're an FTB, some of the reductions I've seen could have completely wiped my deposit out. With the gift of the Land Registry, I can see a number of people in my area may not get what they paid for their property.

:huh:

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30% off peak prices would not reflect historical rates of correction. For the past 50 years the dip has always reflected an approximate 50% of the peak.

I do agree with you, however:

Often in housing corrections prices fall 50%, but this is relative to earnings, and over many years.

Prices usually fall 20 to 30% in nominal terms, so I expect to find 500k houses selling for £350k reasonably soon.

Earnings in the UK are still growing at around 4%, so it only takes 5 years to make up the other 20% (ignoring compound interest)

Houses will once again be cheap.

Edited by BandWagon

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You put an offer in LAST YEAR and haven't heard yet. I would presume its a no then

:lol::lol::lol:

I think he was saying the house was on the market for 310K last year but he put in an offer recently of 250K. To suggest he was waiting a year to hear back from an EA would be a little bit silly really, go stand on the naughty step for 10 mins.

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Depends on the price of the house you are looking to reduce.

If the price is 20% above last years price's then steer away, if you want to protect your depoosit and stay out of negative equity. (Assuming you don't have a 50% deposit)

If the price is 20% below lasts year's price's then a further 10% may be seductive.

The truth is the vast majority of house prices are greatly inflated over last years prices so a 20% decrease is probably meaningless, especially if you don't want to get caught in a falling market.

And it depends on your view of the market and your personal circumstances. If you believe there will be 5 years of price falls then buying now will probably not be an option.

The vast majority of reductions I've seen are marketing gimmicks. You start from an unrealistically inflated price, knock 15% and bingo! You have a house price crash. Then a check on nethouse prices shows the property is still 10% more than last years prices. A very successful marketing ploy. And if the reduction results in a price below last years prices, further research will reveal the new price to be twice that of the price in 1999.

And despite talk on these forums of 10 and 15% reductions, the evidence tends to suggest there are monthly average reductions of 0.2%, with HPI still positive at 2-5%. HPI has not even gone negative yet and at this rate unlikely to for many months.

My own view, and i say this without knowing anything of your personal circumstances, is that buying now will threaten anybody's long term financial security resulting in considerable losses, even on a property which appears to have been reduced by 20%.The purported reduction is likely to leave you with a property above last years prices, and if not, twice 1999 prices.

But if you believe prices will not go negative, and will stop falling and plateau out in the next few months, and that we are not on the brink of a recession, then go for it.

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The vast majority of reductions I've seen are marketing gimmicks. You start from an unrealistically inflated price, knock 15% and bingo! You have a house price crash. Then a check on nethouse prices shows the property is still 10% more than last years prices. A very successful marketing ploy.

EAs all over the country are trying this on, and it's a nasty little tactic to fool buyers.

NOW IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY - how many more times does this have to be repeated before it sinks in !

I say that once we're deep into recession, you still have your job and are confident of keeping it, and asking prices are at least 30% off today's values (adjusted for inflation), then I'd think more seriously about buying.

Edited by Warwickshire Lad

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Plenty of time to buy.

When houseprices bottom out, they will bumble along on the bottom for several years - Fact

Which point you buy during this period is largely up to you and if you still have a job.

Prices are falling, nothing will stop the gathering momentum. Another interest rate cut will only build more inflationary pressure into the failing economy and will make zilcho difference to the affordability because the the fundamental factor is not affordability on a monthly basis it is the huge amounts that we have been asked to pay over the last few years. Loans of this magnitude will not inflate away to nothing as they have in the past.

Prices are falling significantly

They will keep falling for a long time

Whats cheaper today will be cheaper tommorrow

Why take the risk unless you really have to buy now? What have you to gain?

The only voices stating that now! is the time to buy and that prices won't fall any further are the same dodgy ones who told us that prices will keep rising, then they were going to level off, then they would plateau for a few years, then prices have fallen a bit and are 'realistic' now etc etc etc. Prices are subdued because it rained last month or people were watching the cricket?

HPC has stated clearly that prices had to fall and would.

Who has the most credibility now?

DOn't buy unless you absolutely have to. YOu have too much to lose by buying now.

When prices bottom out they will sit there for years. YOu don't need to know exactly where the bottom is, close is good enough.

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Certainly not the time to sell! We have our house on the market in Solihull as my job is taking me to the Southwest (Cornwall) and after 14 weeks on the market we have at least had an offer. Yes youve guessed it the offer was 15% below the asking price - we are sitting on the offer so watch this space to see what the house goes for.

What is clear is that there has been a significant slowing in houseprices over the last year - the interesting fact is that over the last 4 months nobody seems to be buying at the asking price (at least in this area).

With the doom and gloom predictions of the economy is this the start of the rot and how far will it go? The facts speak for themselves with oil prices, job losses, Mr Prudent's overspending and resetting the economic cycle (cheating the system), record borrowing, the list goes on. When will it end?

What we intend to do is redeem the mortgage and rent for at least 6 months and see what happens. The only problems with this is Sipps, but lets be honest if the market is falling who in their right mind would invest their pension in the housing market.

Hopefully sell the house soon, but at the end of the day all we want is somewhere to live as a home. If prices fall by 50% we will be back to where we were 7 years ago. Cann't see this happening but a nice thought anyway.

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I couldn't afford to buy at only 10~20% off current prices; in my case it's not a question of "timing the market" or anything like that. It must be nice to have the luxury of choosing at what point on the downslope to buy in; for me it's very simple: no crash=no home.

More or less the same here. Or at least if I wanted to live in a reasonable area in a sh!tty house, let alone a nice house. rather than an area that even the locals avoid.

Chuffer, is it not better to accept £15k less now, rather than the possibility of £50k less, 12 months from now? Knock £15k off the next house you buy.

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Hopefully sell the house soon, but at the end of the day all we want is somewhere to live as a home. If prices fall by 50% we will be back to where we were 7 years ago. Cann't see this happening but a nice thought anyway.

If you had told people in 2000 that internet shares would fall 95%, they would have laughed at you.

Remember those days?

This is the biggest housing bubble in history.

50% falls in the housing market have happened in the past.

Don't think anything is impossible.

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very simplistic, but as UK ltd missed the 2000-01 recession, a realistic price following the crash would be (2001 price) x 1.05^(no. of years since 2001). The bubble was way too inflated in 2003, and then we had another 20% rise by GB's majestic hiding of the bubble and excessive lending! I think that a 20% reduction just brings us to the real peak of the bubble in 2003, where an extra 30% should be taken off... very oversimlpified calcs but will use them as the basis when I start checking prices (not very soon :D)

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More or less the same here. Or at least if I wanted to live in a reasonable area in a sh!tty house, let alone a nice house. rather than an area that even the locals avoid.

Chuffer, is it not better to accept £15k less now, rather than the possibility of £50k less, 12 months from now? Knock £15k off the next house you buy.

Already dropped from 320k to 310k offer came in at 270k!! Looks like 50k anyway

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If you had told people in 2000 that internet shares would fall 95%, they would have laughed at you.

Remember those days?

This is the biggest housing bubble in history.

50% falls in the housing market have happened in the past.

Don't think anything is impossible.

This sure is the BIGGEST housing BUBBLE in the whole history of mankind.

Had the internet been around since the beggining of time I suspect this discussion group would only have been thought of a year or two earlier than it was brought into existence. The fact is there are so many priced out. OK credit is cheap but in the long term this is a bad thing as the burden of debt is maintained for a much longer time, rule of 72 divide rate into 72 gives approx years to double money or reduce debt by half. e.g at 4% burden of debt goes down to about half in 18 years. Compare this with 10% take 7 years.

Therefore cheaper housing when interset rates are bigger is a much better. This is the worst combination ever.

Now everything else is cheap at the moment with few exception, some I can think of eye glasses, dentistry, petrol. Why is everything cheap (maybe a bit siimplistic) LESS disposable income forces prces down in high street, loss of our manufacturing base, cheaper to make goods elsewhere i.e. China ( I have brought from these parts several times other past few weeks). I believe china is unstoppable now ( I selfishly don't care I have some FXC shares) now when the UK no longer produces anything and the whole of UK is dependent on anywhere else for goods what will happen goods prices will rocket.

I believe that there is some correletiom between houise prices and high street prices albeit an inverse one.

With House prices at such ridiculous levels and fact that they are out of reach for the majority of FTBs, and what I predict to be a sharo increase in consumer goods prices, as this surely cannot go on for much longer without correction. I believe (HOPE) that that the BIGGEST BUBBLE in HISTORY will be followed by the biggest BIGGEST CRASH in HISTORY.

So I guess my answer is NO

However do not blaim me if I am wrong. I do hope this stupidity will END.

Edited by andy_wants_a_home

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Why on earth are people panicing? Why just get 10% of a house when a minimum of 30-40% is in the offing. I'm quite content renting, but a friend of mine has jumped ship and got a "bargain". One bedroom flat in St. John's Wood reduced from 190 to 178 because, according to him, house prices have stabilised and will now rise, renting is dead money and he wants to get on the property ladder.

Oh dear

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Why on earth are people panicing? Why just get 10% of a house when a minimum of 30-40% is in the offing. I'm quite content renting, but a friend of mine has jumped ship and got a "bargain". One bedroom flat in St. John's Wood reduced from 190 to 178 because, according to him, house prices have stabilised and will now rise, renting is dead money and he wants to get on the property ladder.

Oh dear

Sounds like he got a real bargain there.

grin292l.jpg

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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