Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

Spoke to someone the other day who had their home in Davis Avenue, Torquay valued last year at £142k. He had it valued again last week at £135k. EA explained the discrepancy by admitting that prices had dropped in the last year by about 7% (though the 7k difference is only about a 5% drop!). The EA said the owner should hold off selling for a while as they are hoping prices will start to rise again soon!

Jock1967

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another source today (connected with a residential development in Torbay) confirmed that the local estate agents and others in the know (local solicitors) accept that the market has dipped in this area volumewise and pricewise. However they are hoping for a pick up in the market after Christmas. I'm not sure whether these hopes are based on wishful thinking or some inside knowledge.

A contact in Dartmouth has had their place (ca £300k) on the market for almost a year now and can't shift it. Changed EA's, had a few more viewings and still can't get a bite. It seems that nothing in that price bracket is getting sold, maybe because those lower down the ladder cant move up due to the dearth of FTB's and the resulting stagnation.

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I live on the 'willows' development in torbay. Last year a local ea knocked on my door to ask if I would sell up. He said a house across the road has just gone, and he could sell mine for 160k in two weeks.

The same house is now back on the market, at last year's price, and it's remained un-sold for nine months now, with only 4 viewings. Nothing in my area is selling at present, each seller clinging to 2004 price's!

Edited by Sparkie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 bedroom flat in Babbacombe Road, Torquay. Put on the market in October 2005, after extensive refurbishment, at £115k. Price dropped to £99k 6 weeks later, then £94.5k, then £89k early 2006. Rumoured to have sold for £84k (will have to wait for land reg to find out for sure). That's a drop of 27% in 5 months. Not bad!

3 Bed end terrace in Shiphay. On the market since last summer at £175k. Changed EA's and now on at £170. Still not sold. A drop of 3%.

2 bed bungalow in Cadewell. On at £225k over a year ago. Lying empty now. Still not sold. Price still £225k!!

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Winners and Losers

Spoke to someone the other day who had their home in Davis Avenue, Torquay valued last year at £142k. He had it valued again last week at £135k. EA explained the discrepancy by admitting that prices had dropped in the last year by about 7% (though the 7k difference is only about a 5% drop!). The EA said the owner should hold off selling for a while as they are hoping prices will start to rise again soon!

Jock1967

:lol::lol::lol:

The EA's should be saying sell now or you will be chasing the market down for the next 2 years!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3-Bed detached bungalow in Collaton Road, Shiphay. On at Connells. Reduced from £275k to £250. Drop of 9.1%

I'm lovin it :P

Jock

Of course that should have read

'Reduced from £275k to £250k',

though I liked it better the other way! ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all

Update from last October. Sold my place, 2 bed on the 'willows' for £145,000, no reduction! (2004 price) I'm STR'ing in to rented, until IR rises reduce prices down in next 12 months I hope!!!!. Something strange going on in Torbay, one bed flats being snapped up for £98,000, no reductions, while propertys above 250k being reduced down by as much as 25%, work mates farther reduced his 4 bed 'brunel Park' bungalow from 370k last October down to 335k in March, still no takers. 3 beds on the 'willows' being snapped up for BTL at the right price. What about the rest of Devon, you local guys?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 bed town house in Shiphay, Torquay. On at Connells a month ago for £165k. Now reduced to £158950. A reduction of 4%.

Only one of the 30-odd houses I am monitoring has sold at the original asking price in the last few months. The rest have either been reduced, withdrawn or are still waiting for a mug ... sorry I should have typed 'buyer' there. :P

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still little movement in my part of Torbay. Of the 39 I am closely monitoring one has been reduced this week and two are under offer.

4 bed detached bungalow, reduced from £274950 to £269950, a reduction of 3%

4 bed detached in The Willows for £279950, SSTC

3 bed end-terraced in Shiphay for £169995, (reduced from £174950) under offer

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update

That flat I said had been reduced by 27% in February and then sold, well it didn't sell. Still on the market and very few viewers apparently.

Jock

Edited by jock1967

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More good news. Of the 585 properties on at 9 EA's in Torbay that I checked last week only 6 have sold and the following are the reductions:

2-bed semi-bungalow, reduced from £147500 to £145950 (-1%)

3-bed detached, changed EA and reduced from £289500 to £265000 (-8.5%)

5-bed semi, reduced from £249950 to £244950 (-2%)

2-bed terraced, reduced from £189950 to £179950 (-5%)

3-bed detached, reduced from £185950 to £179950 (-4%)

3-bed terraced, reduced from £169950 to £160000 (-6%)

3-bed terraced, reduced from £196500 to £189950 (-3%)

2-bed terraced, reduced from £189950 to 179950 (-5%)

3-bed terraced, reduced from £169950 to 160000 (-6%)

2-bed semi, reduced from £147000 to £145000 (-1%)

4-bed terraced, reduced from £169950 to £164950 (-3%)

3-bed terraced, reduced from £219000 to £215000 (-2%)

2-bed end terr, reduced from £154950 to 152950 (-1%)

3-bed end terr, reduced from £184950 to £179950 (-4%)

3 bed terraced, reduced from £169950 to £160000 (-6%)

3-bed end terr, reduced from £169500 to £164950 (-3%)

Can EA's survive with such a low level of sales?

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Results for this week:

600 properties between £130k and £300k, 9 EAs.

Withdrawn - 36

SSTC - 4

No longer SSTC - 2

Reduced:

3-bed semi bungalow, reduced from £229950 to £224950 (-2%)

7-bed terraced, reduced from £219950 to £215000 (-2%)

2-bed flat, reduced from £215000 to £210000 (-2%)

2-bed nungalow, reduced from £19450 to £185000 (-5%)

2-bed flat, reduced from £167950 to £164950 (-2%)

2-bed terraced, reduced from £189950 to £179950 (-5%)

3-bed end terr, reduced from £148500 to £144950 (-2%)

2-bed terraced, reduced from £175950 to £169950 (-3%)

2-bed cottage, reduced from £154000 to £149950 (-3%)

3-bed bungalow, reduced from £230000 to £224950 (-2%)

Studio, reduced from £189950 to £179950 (-5%)

3-bed semi, reduced from £174950 to £169950 (-3%)

2-bed bungalow, reduced from £169995 to £167500 (-1%)

3-bed detached, reduced from £214950 to £204950 (-5%)

3-bed detached reduced from £235000 to £225000 (-4%)

3-bed end terr, reduced from £228500 to £215000 (-6%)

4-bed semi, reduced from £187500 to £182500 (-3%)

5-bed terraced, reduced from £180000 to £175950 (-2%)

2-bed semi bungalow, reduced from £152500 to £145000 (-5%)

I know I'm not tracking all price ranges but surely this price range is the bread and butter for most EAs. How can they survive with this low level of transactions? Isn't there meant to be a Spring bounce or something?

Is there anyone from Torbay/South Devon who finds this detail useful? If not I will stop posting it as one of these days my boss is gonna catch me! :o

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Results for this week:

600 properties between £130k and £300k, 9 EAs.

Withdrawn - 36

SSTC - 4

No longer SSTC - 2

Reduced:

3-bed semi bungalow, reduced from £229950 to £224950 (-2%)

7-bed terraced, reduced from £219950 to £215000 (-2%)

2-bed flat, reduced from £215000 to £210000 (-2%)

2-bed nungalow, reduced from £19450 to £185000 (-5%)

2-bed flat, reduced from £167950 to £164950 (-2%)

2-bed terraced, reduced from £189950 to £179950 (-5%)

3-bed end terr, reduced from £148500 to £144950 (-2%)

2-bed terraced, reduced from £175950 to £169950 (-3%)

2-bed cottage, reduced from £154000 to £149950 (-3%)

3-bed bungalow, reduced from £230000 to £224950 (-2%)

Studio, reduced from £189950 to £179950 (-5%)

3-bed semi, reduced from £174950 to £169950 (-3%)

2-bed bungalow, reduced from £169995 to £167500 (-1%)

3-bed detached, reduced from £214950 to £204950 (-5%)

3-bed detached reduced from £235000 to £225000 (-4%)

3-bed end terr, reduced from £228500 to £215000 (-6%)

4-bed semi, reduced from £187500 to £182500 (-3%)

5-bed terraced, reduced from £180000 to £175950 (-2%)

2-bed semi bungalow, reduced from £152500 to £145000 (-5%)

I know I'm not tracking all price ranges but surely this price range is the bread and butter for most EAs. How can they survive with this low level of transactions? Isn't there meant to be a Spring bounce or something?

Is there anyone from Torbay/South Devon who finds this detail useful? If not I will stop posting it as one of these days my boss is gonna catch me! :o

Jock

I'm in South Cornwall not South Devon but your research shows a similar pattern to whats happening here

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Results for this week:

500-odd properties priced between £130 and 300k, 8EAs

Withdrawn - 24

SSTC - 14

Reduced:

4-bed detached, from £297500 to £289000 (-3%)

4 bed semi, from £295000 to £275000 (-7%)

3 bed semi, from £149950 to £144950 (-3%)

2 bed bungalow, from £235000 to £229000 (-3%)

2 bed semi, from £153950 to £148950 (-3%)

4 bed detached, from £297500 to £289000 (-3%)

4 bed semi, from £209950 to £199950 (-5%)

3 bed terraced, from £190000 to £185000 (-3%)

2 bed bungalow, from £239950 to £234950 (-2%)

2 bed terraced, from £139950 to £137950 (-1%)

4 bed terraced, from £159950 to £154950 (-3%)

3 bed terraced, from £144950 to £142950 (-1%)

That'll be the spring bounce then, up from 4 sales to 14, spread among 8 EAs.

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Results for this week:

500-odd properties priced between £130 and 300k, 8EAs

Withdrawn - 24

SSTC - 14

Reduced:

4-bed detached, from £297500 to £289000 (-3%)

4 bed semi, from £295000 to £275000 (-7%)

3 bed semi, from £149950 to £144950 (-3%)

2 bed bungalow, from £235000 to £229000 (-3%)

2 bed semi, from £153950 to £148950 (-3%)

4 bed detached, from £297500 to £289000 (-3%)

4 bed semi, from £209950 to £199950 (-5%)

3 bed terraced, from £190000 to £185000 (-3%)

2 bed bungalow, from £239950 to £234950 (-2%)

2 bed terraced, from £139950 to £137950 (-1%)

4 bed terraced, from £159950 to £154950 (-3%)

3 bed terraced, from £144950 to £142950 (-1%)

That'll be the spring bounce then, up from 4 sales to 14, spread among 8 EAs.

Jock

These reductions in asking price to selling price are quite predictable, every seller expects to be knocked down and likewise all buyers expect to knock something off the price. Without this game, the buyer would not feel he/she had obtained a bargain. The real comparison should be last years prices to this years actual selling values for properties with the same attributes. This is what the Halifax etc use when conducting their surveys. I believe that prices will continue to rise, the main reasons for this are low housing stock, reducing gap between avg earnings and avg property prices, first time buyers are leaving it later to buy and this cycle of younger first time buyers and older first timers is now in its second cycle. I do concede however that the growth rate will be much lower than the past, typically 4-6%, the higer end of this forecast being good quality properties in desirable locations but at the lower end of the market.

astos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These reductions in asking price to selling price are quite predictable, every seller expects to be knocked down and likewise all buyers expect to knock something off the price. Without this game, the buyer would not feel he/she had obtained a bargain. The real comparison should be last years prices to this years actual selling values for properties with the same attributes. This is what the Halifax etc use when conducting their surveys. I believe that prices will continue to rise, the main reasons for this are low housing stock, reducing gap between avg earnings and avg property prices, first time buyers are leaving it later to buy and this cycle of younger first time buyers and older first timers is now in its second cycle. I do concede however that the growth rate will be much lower than the past, typically 4-6%, the higer end of this forecast being good quality properties in desirable locations but at the lower end of the market.

astos

Astos

You should do your homework before posting bullish comments about rising prices look at the link to the OPDM figures below

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county29.stm

As you can see most areas of Devon are reported as falling - these figues are a long way behind and I suspect "adjusted" to show the best of the worst by talking up the positives and ignoring the negatives

Jock is providing useful information for his area - although only on asking prices - you can do a similar comparison on sold prices by gathering statistics from

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/

Pick your chosen postcode and calcualte the figues - I did this in South Cornwall (not too different from South Devon) and found a 15% average drop from Q1 05 tp Q4 05 I can provide you with all the figures if you want

I suggest you do some research of your own to find out how prices are holding up if you want to know the truth I think you will find the aren't - if you don't want to know the truth (as many people don't) you can continue to believe the enormous hype of the VI's and hope that you are right

CS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These reductions in asking price to selling price are quite predictable, every seller expects to be knocked down and likewise all buyers expect to knock something off the price. Without this game, the buyer would not feel he/she had obtained a bargain. The real comparison should be last years prices to this years actual selling values for properties with the same attributes. This is what the Halifax etc use when conducting their surveys. I believe that prices will continue to rise, the main reasons for this are low housing stock, reducing gap between avg earnings and avg property prices, first time buyers are leaving it later to buy and this cycle of younger first time buyers and older first timers is now in its second cycle. I do concede however that the growth rate will be much lower than the past, typically 4-6%, the higer end of this forecast being good quality properties in desirable locations but at the lower end of the market.

astos

I agree that the best comparison is between what houses actually sold for and I have Land Registry figures showing that for postcodes around me houses fell between 3.2% and 5.1% from q4 '04 to q4 '05. In Devon as a whole prices dropped a more modest 0.9% over the same period. I think that one of the interesting things so far about my data is that the volume of sales in this area is so low. I don't know if historically this is significant but will certainly keep my eye on it.

You may well be correct in that initial asking prices have expected discounts built-in, but during the boom years houses readily sold for the initial asking price. This no longer seems to be the case. Also interesting, to me at least, is the fact that none of the houses I am tracking that have been reduced have yet sold!

I'm not sure if you are in South Devon, but your statement about the 'reducing gap between avg earnings and ave property prices' helping to maintain the market doesn't quite take account of the low wages down here and the high cost of housing due to 2nd home owners. I'm not sure of the figures but think it's true that ave house prices are something like six times the average Devon wage and so, unaffordable for most.

I wasn't clear on what you meant by 'first time buyers are leaving it later to buy and this cycle of younger first time buyers and older first timers is now in its second cycle.' Could you explain the significance please?

Cheers

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This week's results:

602 properties on at 8 EAs

Withdrawn: 27

New Instructions: 31

SSTC: 8

Reductions: 2%, 4%, 5%, 1%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 3%, 10%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 5%, 2%, 3%.

Average reduction: 3.5%

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Jock, keep up the good work………

Living in the Ashburton area, looking to move just north of Exeter. Tip for you all, go in to any TEAM agent and ask for the local statement of the market……its unbelievable, an EA group that publishes true numbers about its business for the past month.

March, briefly……..

Average sale price has not moved a jot for at least 6 months.

Demand v supply, many more houses coming on to market.

Speed of sale, Slower.

Always quiz my local EA on the market when I pay my rent, telling me that they have been swamped with new instructions in the past few weeks, but business is good, prices flat.

Finding that prices are moving down, but do you have to push hard to get any movement, example, north Exeter, asking price £330K 4 bed single garage. One across the road with double garage and study went 3 months ago for £310K – when I questioned the EA why, guess what the answer was, well house prices are still rising, Devon is still popular, don’t you read the papers !!!!!!!! I could have landed him one. Anyway offered £307K and still waiting for an answer. :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Jock, keep up the good work………

Living in the Ashburton area, looking to move just north of Exeter. Tip for you all, go in to any TEAM agent and ask for the local statement of the market……its unbelievable, an EA group that publishes true numbers about its business for the past month.

March, briefly……..

Average sale price has not moved a jot for at least 6 months.

Demand v supply, many more houses coming on to market.

Speed of sale, Slower.

Always quiz my local EA on the market when I pay my rent, telling me that they have been swamped with new instructions in the past few weeks, but business is good, prices flat.

Finding that prices are moving down, but do you have to push hard to get any movement, example, north Exeter, asking price £330K 4 bed single garage. One across the road with double garage and study went 3 months ago for £310K – when I questioned the EA why, guess what the answer was, well house prices are still rising, Devon is still popular, don’t you read the papers !!!!!!!! I could have landed him one. Anyway offered £307K and still waiting for an answer. :blink:

I re-confirm by belief that house prices will continue to rise in the South West of England. Why not visit the nationwide housing survey property price calculater - this is driven by real sales in huge volumes.

Here are some stats for you -

Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 = +4.75%

2005 - Q1 - Q2 = +2.83%

2005 - Q2 - Q3 = - 0.42%

2005 - Q3 - Q4 = +0.66%

2005 - Q4 - 2006 Q1 = +1.63%

How can you claim that prices are not rising in the south west. A slight blip in Q3 last year, every other quarter has seen growth.

What about monthly changes this last two months.

March 2006 - +1.1%

April 2006 - +0.1% (Still rising!)

Why not read tonights herald express in Torbay Page 5 " Value to double in ten years"

Advice - If you want to get on the ladder, get on now before it is removed altogether - do not listing to these people who are trying to convince you and themselves that the market will crash. Its now or never people, believe me. For some, its probably too late.

astos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Get on the ladder now , who writes your scripts? I think that if we could have got on the ladder most of us would have years ago but we are simply priced out of the market. Even with a huge crash of 25% some people still couldn't afford without having mumsie and dadsie sticking up a huge wad as deposit.

Wot happendd to 3.5 times salary prices? Mind you the new houses they seem to be building look shite to me anyway all bunched together or blocks of flats that look like prison cells.

I will stay renting and ignore these morons that say buy now!!!!! I hope you all use your common sense too - almost everyone I speak to now agrees that houses are overvalued so what does that tell you eh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I re-confirm by belief that house prices will continue to rise in the South West of England. Why not visit the nationwide housing survey property price calculater - this is driven by real sales in huge volumes.

Here are some stats for you -

Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 = +4.75%

2005 - Q1 - Q2 = +2.83%

2005 - Q2 - Q3 = - 0.42%

2005 - Q3 - Q4 = +0.66%

2005 - Q4 - 2006 Q1 = +1.63%

How can you claim that prices are not rising in the south west. A slight blip in Q3 last year, every other quarter has seen growth.

What about monthly changes this last two months.

March 2006 - +1.1%

April 2006 - +0.1% (Still rising!)

Why not read tonights herald express in Torbay Page 5 " Value to double in ten years"

Advice - If you want to get on the ladder, get on now before it is removed altogether - do not listing to these people who are trying to convince you and themselves that the market will crash. Its now or never people, believe me. For some, its probably too late.

astos

astos,

for me it is too late. I had to move regularly for work between 1997 and 2003 so renting was the best option I moved here about three years ago and could just about have afforded a not very good two bedroomed something in a poor district. Not ideal for a family of 4. I was not prepared to impulse-buy without knowing the area. Within 6 months prices for even these less desireable (to me anyway) areas had risen about 10% and were now outwith my reach. I therefore have no chance in the current climate to buy.

I too believed the figures bandied about by Nationwide, Rightmove etc and was resigned to never being able to own a property. Then I became aware of this site, read about the vested interests and how their figures were not always what they seemed and recently started to do my own research rather than rely on what I was being fed. As I've stated already Land Registry figures show that for postcodes around me houses fell between 3.2% and 5.1% from q4 '04 to q4 '05. In Devon as a whole prices dropped by 0.9%. These are real sales, and as you mention these are the figures we should be watching. According to the BBC the Land Registry data is considered to be the most authoritative.

(see here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3132863.stm ).

My examination of my own local market shows that volumes are low, houses are remaining available for long periods of time and initial asking prices are being reduced, though I'll admit these reductions are modest. These are merely my own observations over the past few months and this may be a temporary blip. They don't seem to tally with what Nationwide and the local papers are saying and I'm sure that you prefer to believe them than me, but they are an alternate view of the market from someone who has nothing to gain from misleading anyone. Feel free to dismiss them if you wish.

I wasn't clear whether the quarterly stats you quoted were volumes or selling prices. Be aware that if they were selling prices these could be affected by drops in the volume of sales of lower priced properties (due to fewer FTB's) such that the more expensive properties changing hands leads to an increase in the average price. Such an increase would be bad news, and not a sign of a healthy market.

Jock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why not read tonights herald express in Torbay Page 5 " Value to double in ten years"

Advice - If you want to get on the ladder, get on now before it is removed altogether - do not listing to these people who are trying to convince you and themselves that the market will crash. Its now or never people, believe me. For some, its probably too late.

astos

This t0sser will do and say anything in an attempt to earn his commision, if you can call estate agency earning in the true sense, think Whistleblower :rolleyes:

Just re read the above quote, total unsubstantuated bull5hit....take this for instance....tonights herald says ....its a newspaper FFS, it's quoting the Cabal of Crooks ...... the National Association of Estate Agents....any numpty who is capable of turning a key can be an estate agent.

Another newbie VI spouting 5hit, but there will be many more crawling out of the woodwork as their job security diminishes by the minute...tick tock...tick tock

You would do better to spend your time visiting a re training website than posting on here.

Edited by Catch22

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Astos - What planet are you living on?

I posted a reply to your remarks over a week ago that you seem unable to understand - the statistics put out by Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove and some times the OPDM are manupulated fro commercial and political reasons - as such they are not reliable the only evidence that can be trusted is the Land Registry's sold prices.

You are quoting prices form the South West overall which everyone knows is the UK's most variable region and as such an overall figure often does not represent anything like what is happening in a local area

People can only judge what they know

Jock is seeing prices fall in South Devon - I am seeing prices fall in South Cornwall, there may be some rises at the top of the South West region and in Swindon but it is 200+ miles away from me so there is little correlation between the markets

I worked in finance for 20+ years and came across many people giving bad advice - anyone who is a dismissive as you and puts across insubstantiated arguments wants shooting

CS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.