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Black Monday?

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Mmm..

- Sticks finger in air -

Market closed up on Friday so I reckon people were probably expecting Mercat to make a world saving announcement over the weekend.

We've not had anything earth shattering so my guess would be the market will open slightly down (1-2%) and then stay flatish minus some major development.

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Really? Fine. I'm calling it.

I'm calling 4/7 of the following

EURO down 5% against any one of GBP USD XAU XAG

At least one international bank needing special measures

At least one government denying that they need special measures

XAG moves 5% against any one of GBP USD XAU EURO

The riot in Greece turns bloody

A senior government official steps down in one of the PIIGS

A stock market somewhere closes early and/or has "technical problems"

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My magic 8 ball says banks down, some stocks up and some down, some currency up and some down, politico's continue to lie with every word and the world keeps turning.

Also, if anyone mentions the 'G' word then general congreve will post a great deal and irrespective of how relevant that may be to the economy the thread will be sent somewhere else to die.

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Downing St to announce that Clegg is pregnant and Cameron is the father. FTSE surges on the news.

Meanwhile rioters in Athens find oil under the Acropolis. The euro is saved. Finally Obama announces that all the US gold really is in Fort Knox and the price of the shiny stuff plummets. General Congreve last seen begging in Trafalgar Square & ramping gold using an iPhone 2,

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Nah, They will just bail Greece out again, and again and again. Maybe those Greek bonds aren't such a bad bet?

I think I agree with you.

Every report today suggests everyone is putting off biting the bullet. No decision will be made until 'later'.

I think they will keep giving the Greek Government money in the hope it can persuade the people that poverty is good for them. But that's if the current Government is around for much longer.

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My magic 8 ball says banks down, some stocks up and some down, some currency up and some down, politico's continue to lie with every word and the world keeps turning.

Also, if anyone mentions the 'G' word then general congreve will post a great deal and irrespective of how relevant that may be to the economy the thread will be sent somewhere else to die.

This. There's no way there's going to be a market meltdown on Monday.

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I can't see anything that has changed that would cause a Black Monday - in fact the latest bailout agreement is likely to cause a rise I'd have thought.

Only when the inevitable default actually comes will the markets fall - and it could be 40% over a few months, not the 1% falls we have seen recently.

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To be a 'black' day we would have to get a fall of 5%+. Less than that and it's a bit of a let down.

Edited by Errol

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Lunch with friends today who own a big Spanish holiday property that they're trying to sell. He's a banker and was miring his trousers with dread, saying he wished he'd cut the price last year and sold, worried that if the property's suddenly valued in pesetas it'd turn a painful loss into a disaster.

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Greek economic prospects darkened as European bickering risked delaying the next rescue payment and defections weakened Prime Minister George Papandreou’s majority.

An emergency session of euro finance chiefs in Brussels yesterday failed to break a deadlock on how to enroll investors in a second bailout without triggering a default, casting doubt on funds due from the International Monetary Fund next month.

In Athens, Greek police used tear gas to disperse demonstrators around the Parliament as 20,000 people rallied against wage reductions and tax increases as lawmakers debated the budget cuts and asset sales that are conditions of the aid. Ports, banks, hospitals and state-run companies were paralyzed by strikes, while a Papandreou ally said he won’t support the austerity measures and another bolted his Socialist Party.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou offered to step aside to permit the formation of a unity government, as long as all opposition parties agreed to cuts required by an international bailout, said a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

Papandreou’s bid, coming amid mounting popular protests and defections among his allies, countered a demand by the New Democracy opposition party that he quit and allow a so-called technical government renegotiate the terms of the rescue.

The political turmoil came as European Union talks on forging a new bailout to prevent the first euro-area default stalled. The impasse over the aid formula and speculation of an impending government shakeup sent Greek bond yields surging to a record high and the euro weakening today.

“When a government has so profoundly misjudged the anger, frustration and disillusionment in the population it is a matter of time until changes have to set in,” Jens Bastian, a visiting economist at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University in England, said in an interview.

Yields on 10-year Greek bonds neared 18 percent, the highest in the 17-nation euro area’s history. The slump pushed the extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of similar maturity German bunds to a record 1,491 basis points. The euro weakened 1.7 percent to $1.42 at 5:50 p.m. in London. The cost to insure Greek debt climbed to a record, indicating an about 75 percent chance of default within five years.

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Greek economic prospects darkened as European bickering risked delaying the next rescue payment and defections weakened Prime Minister George Papandreou’s majority.

An emergency session of euro finance chiefs in Brussels yesterday failed to break a deadlock on how to enroll investors in a second bailout without triggering a default, casting doubt on funds due from the International Monetary Fund next month.

- SNIP -

Polite to give a link ;)

linky

Bloomberg / 15th June

Welcome btw

Edited by libspero

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LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING'S GONE SERIOUSLY WRONG> http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-update-june-19-2011-6

If Greece goes, Ireland goes, Portugal goes... they'll have lost control, and they know it.

Which banks are at greatest risk of going under outside of Greece I'm wondering.

Maybe none?

Bailing the countries is largely an indirect way of bailing the banks out of its bad loans . . . only with some target country taxpayer/asset grab support.

If the countries go under, maybe the respective Governments then just bail their banks directly.

Say, for example, Societe Generale is the most exposed at present. (I think it is to Greece and Spain.) Would it continue to lend to Greece if it had no back-stop? Surely only if France and the ECB is pushing it to do so.

Everyone knows Greece can't hope to repay the bailout . . not the last one nor the next, ever.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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