Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
200p

7 Fat Cows, 7 Thin Cows - No This Is Not Essex

Recommended Posts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8578645/Britain-in-the-middle-of-seven-lean-years-says-Sir-Mervyn-King.html

Britain in the middle of seven lean years, says Sir Mervyn King

Britain is in the middle of “seven lean years” caused by the economic crash, the Governor of the Bank of England said last night.

Echoes of the Biblical prophecy?

Did we ever have the 7 fat years that preceeded the 7 thin in the bible though? I remember 7 years of people taking on larger and larger debts, but that's not the same as 7 fat years where surplus was set aside for the lean years (see Kenyes is not really that clever an economist, just commonsense at least as old as the bible).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks to his inflation creating policies it's not really a prediction is it? I'm creating inflation and this will cut your purchasing power and destroy jobs and I'll randomly guess this will be for 7 years, at which point I'll have retired and pocketed a nice pension for it.

Thanks peeps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks to his inflation creating policies it's not really a prediction is it? I'm creating inflation and this will cut your purchasing power and destroy jobs and I'll randomly guess this will be for 7 years, at which point I'll have retired and pocketed a nice pension for it.

Thanks peeps.

He's such a myopic bullshitter.

Fat years - tell that to those who lost their jobs/careers/industries during the fat years thanks ot him and his mates in the banking sector.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wonder what Merv thinks is going to turn this around in three years time???

He's starting to sound a bit mad as they fumble around trying to convince the public that the way to recovery is hyperinflation. :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wonder what Merv thinks is going to turn this around in three years time???

He's starting to sound a bit mad as they fumble around trying to convince the public that the way to recovery is hyperinflation. :blink:

Watched Inside Job last night and these types of people hate reality being brought up. The rating agencies merely offered an opinion which just meaningless but hey we'll take a fat fee for, academics who looked very uncomfortable when being shown for the lying BS that they are.

They are all the same they can talk a good game but struggle with reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Pharaoh's dream story requires a cultural reference . The point was that Pharaoh was forewarned of the seven lean years to come after the seven fat years and thus able to act by saving grain.

Perhaps Mr King is upset that God did not see fit to forewarn him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Pharaoh's dream story requires a cultural reference . The point was that Pharaoh was forewarned of the seven lean years to come after the seven fat years and thus able to act by saving grain.

Perhaps Mr King is upset that God did not see fit to forewarn him.

Mr King is just fine with his suitcase full of gordons gold and super index linked pension, tyvm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wonder what Merv thinks is going to turn this around in three years time???

He's starting to sound a bit mad as they fumble around trying to convince the public that the way to recovery is hyperinflation. :blink:

Exactly, it's that syndrome where they start to think because they have a big office and high salary that they are some sort of sage. Marbles AWOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's such a myopic bullshitter.

Fat years - tell that to those who lost their jobs/careers/industries during the fat years thanks ot him and his mates in the banking sector.

Myopic Merv, I like it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's starting to sound a bit mad as they fumble around trying to convince the public that the way to recovery is hyperinflation. :blink:

The thirty pieces of silver he got for selling the UK down the Swanee will do do very well in a hyper-inflationary environment, thank you very much.

There is no rescuing the UK now, it's fukced beyond economical repair.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did we ever have the 7 fat years that preceeded the 7 thin in the bible though? I remember 7 years of people taking on larger and larger debts, but that's not the same as 7 fat years where surplus was set aside for the lean years (see Kenyes is not really that clever an economist, just commonsense at least as old as the bible).

Certainly had seven years of rapid house price inflation from 1997-2004, followed by three years of flat-lining to 2007, pre-crash. Plenty of opportunity to cash in that paper wealth on to a greater fool in those three years and rent a property.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so 7 fat years would have taken us to 2002-2003, but what happened then? We borrowed another 7 fat years and we're still borrowing. So now he thinks we'll only need 7 years to shed all that fat when we have barely started dieting? I don't think so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeremy Grantham has already said we're facing 7 lean years (equity returns).

It looks like they're expecting this secular bear to end somewhere around 2013/14.

Naturally people (especially the anti-central bank community) rant at Merv but he is often prescient in these calls - pay attention.

Edited by Red Karma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so 7 fat years would have taken us to 2002-2003, but what happened then? We borrowed another 7 fat years and we're still borrowing. So now he thinks we'll only need 7 years to shed all that fat when we have barely started dieting? I don't think so.

Half the fat shed I would suggest. From a house price /earnings ratio of six in August 2007 we now stand at 4.5 after a 30% correction in prices (20% nominal and 10% for inflation). I believe that when we get to something like 3 we may have some basis for a recovery not just in the housing market but the economy at large, but we will still have some serious debt overhang. So maybe things will never be the same again.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Half the fat shed I would suggest. From a house price /earnings ratio of six in August 2007 we now stand at 4.5 after a 30% correction in prices (20% nominal and 10% for inflation). I believe that when we get to something like 3 we may have some basis for a recovery not just in the housing market but the economy at large, but we will still have some serious debt overhang. So maybe things will never be the same again.

i was thinking about the debt more than the house prices which resulted from the debt. We are still addicted to borrowing more so i can't see we are on the road to recovery yet, it's still getting worse regardless of what the house prices do, in fact the more the house prices fall the more the debt is exposed as fat which i assume is why TPTB are attempting to protect them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i was thinking about the debt more than the house prices which resulted from the debt. We are still addicted to borrowing more so i can't see we are on the road to recovery yet, it's still getting worse regardless of what the house prices do, in fact the more the house prices fall the more the debt is exposed as fat which i assume is why TPTB are attempting to protect them.

Looking to history the curves of property boom and bust are almost exactly aligned with the economic cycle. But you are right, this time you wonder where the impetus is going to come from for a recovery with 1.6 trillion of debt forecast to grow to 2.1 trillion by 2016. The MPC are trying to keep the wolf from the door by accommodative rates and preventing the banking system (weighed down with sub-prime loans) from collapsing; yet in doing so they are getting us deeper into debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking to history the curves of property boom and bust are almost exactly aligned with the economic cycle. But you are right, this time you wonder where the impetus is going to come from for a recovery with 1.6 trillion of debt forecast to grow to 2.1 trillion by 2016. The MPC are trying to keep the wolf from the door by accommodative rates and preventing the banking system (weighed down with sub-prime loans) from collapsing; yet in doing so they are getting us deeper into debt.

They cannot afford to break the " money as debt" paradigm.

As soon as that's changed even once, everyone will want out. Same logic as the bailouts and austerity - if banks don't have debt and debts don't get repaid they have no function.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks to his inflation creating policies it's not really a prediction is it? I'm creating inflation and this will cut your purchasing power and destroy jobs and I'll randomly guess this will be for 7 years, at which point I'll have retired and pocketed a nice pension for it.

Thanks peeps.

self-fulfilling prophecy :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8578645/Britain-in-the-middle-of-seven-lean-years-says-Sir-Mervyn-King.html

Britain in the middle of seven lean years, says Sir Mervyn King

Britain is in the middle of “seven lean years” caused by the economic crash, the Governor of the Bank of England said last night.

Echoes of the Biblical prophecy?

I think the sentence should read The Middle Britain is having seven lean years while Sir Mervy is not

really affected with this index link pension and the bankers who take advantage of his 0.5%ish rates are

still laughing all the ways to the bank..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did we ever have the 7 fat years that preceeded the 7 thin in the bible though? I remember 7 years of people taking on larger and larger debts, but that's not the same as 7 fat years where surplus was set aside for the lean years (see Kenyes is not really that clever an economist, just commonsense at least as old as the bible).

so if we're getting into biblical parables,then why not go for the ones with the virgins and the lamp-oil.

the ones who spooned theirs and were asleep on the job(aka nu-labour....blair should know better),were given a pretty prompt rebuff"sod off you can't have ours"...and they were left wanting.

but the NuLabur cru don't do god do they?....and we have to toughen up a bit.

Edited by oracle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there any media body who will write a strong argument against all this bull we are having to listen to, and try to get this message over to Sir Merv.

We know you have no more idea than anyother chancer how to avoid the problems that will face the UK economy.

Is there a way of getting him to answer some questions we would all like to know the answers to.

Do you think trying to inflate away the debt, is a policy still worth pursuing?

If so, will you explain to us how this will help, the government has bills to pay as well don't you know.

Do you really care either way?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dream%20of%20Pharaoh.jpg

Do you really care either way?

Not really, we're just the little people at the end of the day. The majority are too x-factor brainwashed or still hoping for a turnaround in the housing market to bail them out. I've just driven around the clifftops just before Hengistbury head, and 2 new building projects have just started.

If we go the way of Weimar, Zimbabwe, Argentina, Iceland or Greece, there are things we can do to step aside from the coming tsunami. It is not too late. Osborne has set his target to balance the structural deficit by 2015-16, Do you think he can do it? Where will Britain be then?

When the big animals are fighting, the small mice (us), scurry into the underbrush.

It'll be really tough on people living on fixed income who are already struggling - look after your family where possible.

I'm not normally a religous person, but maybe it is time to start praying. Here's another prophecy: http://lindseywilliams101.blogspot.com/2010/11/lindsey-williams-dvds-january-2010.html

Edited by Money Spinner

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.