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The Masked Tulip

Unemployment Benefit Claimants Up, But Unemployment Figures Down

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Just breaking now on Fivelive - work that one out. :blink:

it's on it's off it's on it's off it's on it's off maybe it's off (that's what it sounds like anyway):rolleyes::angry::rolleyes::angry::D:D:D

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Hugh Pym

Chief economics correspondent, BBC News

The economy created more than half a million jobs over the last year.

So even after the public sector shed just over 140,000 posts, total employment was still well ahead over twelve months.

That's the most attention-grabbing revelation in the welter of labour market statistics out today.

It adds weight to the argument that the private sector can generate enough jobs to take up the slack left by the retreating public sector.

There were a few wrinkles.

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Just breaking now on Fivelive - work that one out. :blink:

I was too wondering this....then I read this on the BBC website..."The official unemployment figure - which is based on a survey - has been diverging from the claimant count for several months."

I must admit to not knowing how these figures are generated in the past, however, I was surprised to read it was based on a survey....From what I can tell, these numbers are based upon a regular household survey, which I presume, asks people if they are employed or not.....

Therefore, I deduct that the unemployment figure is ********, and the claimant figure is the only figure which should be reported....

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When you look at the figures that matter not just the 'unemployed' (however that is defined these days), or people on Job seekers etc ... "Economic inactivity (people not in education, employment or training) also increased, up by 39,000 in the three months to April to reach 9.37 million, more than a fifth of the working age population.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2003714/Back-work-Biggest-fall-unemployment-TEN-years.html#ixzz1PKyDSxPN

So the economically inactive increased by 39,000 but the number claiming JSA rose by 19,600

But in a mixed set of data, the number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance in May rose by 19,600 to 1.49m, the biggest rise since July 2009 and a larger increase than City economists were expecting. It follows a revised increase of 16,900 in April.

Won't the people becoming economically inactive be some who got to the end of their 6 months JSA? So the real number of new JSA claimants could be much higher? i.e. new economically inactive 39,000 plus new claimants 19,600 so potentially 58,600?

It's very good of those people who did find employment, to be prepared to support the new JSA claimants and those who have now switched from that to income support isn't it?

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Stephanie Flanders on the jobs puzzle:

The more we see employment rising, this year, in a supposedly flat economy, the deeper the puzzle becomes.

There are two possibilities - or maybe three.

One is that the GDP figures are simply wrong: employers are hiring this much because output is actually rising faster than the official figures suggest. That is what you might call the good news solution to the conundrum.

The second possibility is that not only the level of UK productivity, but its potential growth rate was permanently damaged by the financial crisis - or maybe, the crisis revealed that we had been kidding ourselves for a long time about the rate at which the economy could safely grow.

As I suggested yesterday, that would be bad news - not just for the economy, but also for the government, because it would mean the public finances are in an even worse state than we thought.

And the third possibility? The third possibility would be a combination of these: the GDP figures are a bit better than we thought (as the Bank of England has long believed), but we are also seeing a prolonged hit to our productivity, not just from the crisis, but as a result of subsequent re-balancing of the economy.

Possibility 2 it is then!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13777923

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When is the BBC going to replace her with someone capable of unbiased journalism.

...kind of difficult for even the BBC to support ...weird taste.... :rolleyes:

How BBC's credit crunch ice queen Stephanie Flanders fell Ed over heels...with Balls AND Miliband

Her steely intellectual analysis coupled with ‘foxy, blue-stocking’ screen presence have made her the ice queen of the BBC’s financial meltdown coverage.

But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that figures are not the only area of interest for the Corporation’s economics editor Stephanie Flanders – she also has impeccable political contacts.

For not only has the Oxford-educated journalist dated the new Labour leader Ed Miliband, but also the Shadow Home Secretary Ed Balls.

Well connected: BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders had relationships with both Ed Miliband and Ed Balls

Miss Flanders, 42, was this weekend in Washington covering a meeting of the powerful International Monetary Fund and was unavailable to comment.

But it is understood her relationships with the two most powerful men in the Labour party happened in the Nineties.

Miss Flanders once confided in a newspaper interview that she met the Miliband brothers through ‘friends of friends’ after university, suggesting her relationship with the now-Labour leader pre-dated her relationship with Ed Balls.

Details were not forthcoming from the Miliband camp last night, but both Miss Flanders and Mr Miliband, 40, were attempting to build careers in the media at around this time.

Miss Flanders, now a mother of two, was returning from two years’ study in the US at Harvard University and attempting to find a job on a newspaper while working at the London Business School.

Mr Miliband, meanwhile, was working as a researcher for a documentary production company –although he was soon to abandon that career for politics.

The couple could also have shared many friends, including Miss Flanders’s tutorial partner at Oxford, Yvette Cooper, who later married Mr Balls and was this week appointed Shadow Foreign Secretary.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1319222/How-BBCs-Stephanie-Flanders-fell-Ed-Miliband-Ed-Balls.html

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From This Is Money:

However, the fall in the number unemployed was offset by an increase in the numbers of those aged 16-24 who are classed as 'economically inactive' by ONS statisticians - usually because they have entered full-time stuidy.
There was
an increase of 80,000 in the number of students now not active in the labour market
, taking the total to 2.29m. The total number of 16 to 24 year-olds in full-time education
rose by 61,000 in the quarter
to reach 3.1m.
Overall, the total of numbers of
economically inactive people of all working ages increased by 39,000
to 9.37m.

Student numbers rose at this time of year?

Meet the new lot, same as the last lot etc.

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Construction workers I talk to still don't see an improvement. Latest one was a plasterer, who says the going rates are a third of what he was getting five years ago.

Experienced mechanical engineer can't get anything.

Experienced electronic engineer jumped from the MoD to the banks about three years ago - got completely stuffed as an independent contractor when the banks drew in their horns. But he reckons the banks are on the move again and his income is improving.

These are the jobs the economy needs.

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From This Is Money:

However, the fall in the number unemployed was offset by an increase in the numbers of those aged 16-24 who are classed as 'economically inactive' by ONS statisticians - usually because they have entered full-time stuidy.
There was
an increase of 80,000 in the number of students now not active in the labour market
, taking the total to 2.29m. The total number of 16 to 24 year-olds in full-time education
rose by 61,000 in the quarter
to reach 3.1m.
Overall, the total of numbers of
economically inactive people of all working ages increased by 39,000
to 9.37m.

Student numbers rose at this time of year?

Meet the new lot, same as the last lot etc.

The unemployment figure come from a survey don't they?

My guess on this is that what we have here is more people working, but in the black Market, and also claiming. The risk reward calculation has moved in favour of doing this as taxes have risen. I guess more and more will do this, and tax take will go down and spend will go up as a result. We should see a gradual increase in this sort of behaviour month by month, putting ever more pressure on state finances.

The only way to end this is with tax cuts, and larger cuts in public spending. We may need state failure to bring that about.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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