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Based primarily on Moody's rating review of three French banks (including BNP, ze biggest bank in ze world mon ami). We know absurdly oversized and overleveraged European banks are, even by US standards. This could be potentially explosive.

I think European banks but primarily French banks have been repatriating cash in double quick time before a potential Greek default. The recent strength of the euro could support a theory of liquidation (as reported by ZH recently) / cash repatriation.

The Greeks also seem to be in the mood for a default now. We might be on for a bit of panic.

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Based primarily on Moody's rating review of three French banks (including BNP, ze biggest bank in ze world mon ami). We know absurdly oversized and overleveraged European banks are, even by US standards. This could be potentially explosive.

I think European banks but primarily French banks have been repatriating cash in double quick time before a potential Greek default. The recent strength of the euro could support a theory of liquidation (as reported by ZH recently) / cash repatriation.

The Greeks also seem to be in the mood for a default now. We might be on for a bit of panic.

Interesting information and interpretation, thanks.

You're hijacking TMT's bandwagon though! Shame!

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Interesting information and interpretation, thanks.

You're hijacking TMT's bandwagon though! Shame!

Well said sir - name him and shame. I am disgusted at this blantant hijacking, especially as I was about to post to my thread. Where is the lunar eclipse analysis!? :rolleyes:

General strike in Greece today.

Increasing anger in Germany against any German bail-out of Greece OR any deal that basically puts German workers on the hook forever to bail out uneconomic and unreformed PIIGS.

Alas, Chinese CPI whilst continuing up was only up 0.1% and the Chinese Govt are doing in a BOE - claiming it will rise till Aug before beginning to drop.

Mansion House speech tonight - Osbourne talking whilst DOW plunging? Or will the plunge be tomorrow?

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The Greeks also seem to be in the mood for a default now. We might be on for a bit of panic.

Yes...but not yet. Wily E Coyote ran off the cliff in 2007, but has still not managed to truly summon up the courage to look down.

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Zerohedge have also been running with the idea the FED has been bailing out European banks.

I have been saying this for over a year. I think the UK banks have been extensively bailed out by the Yanks.

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Based primarily on Moody's rating review of three French banks (including BNP, ze biggest bank in ze world mon ami). We know absurdly oversized and overleveraged European banks are, even by US standards. This could be potentially explosive.

I think European banks but primarily French banks have been repatriating cash in double quick time before a potential Greek default. The recent strength of the euro could support a theory of liquidation (as reported by ZH recently) / cash repatriation.

The Greeks also seem to be in the mood for a default now. We might be on for a bit of panic.

That's an interesting hypothesis. Sterling has taken a pounding against the euro since January this year when exchange rate hit 1.2+. I'm hoping it'll head back to this level soon as I want to move ££ across. What are your thoughts on this?

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Three 'BLACK' threads on the main page in 2 days.

(TMT's, Moneyweek Bank shares, This one).

Definately a contra-indicator buying opportunity coming up (pointing to banks/financials too) :D

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FTSE is down nearly 1%.. I've seen worse black-day calls.

If I remember correctly, my particular call came on what I thought was a very dodgy financial position for the world at the moment. So I called it.

With minutes, there was the biggest ever bailout announced by the EU, setting up some sort of stabilisation fund or something. Needless to say, the Monday which should have been black, saw one of the biggest one day rises ever.

Yes, that was a bad call in retrospect. I bet you cant say you have seen a worse one?

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The FTSE was treading water (as per usual) until the DJIA opened and that's powering down.

London falls only going to be moderated by the close.

Not a bad call.

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That's an interesting hypothesis. Sterling has taken a pounding against the euro since January this year when exchange rate hit 1.2+. I'm hoping it'll head back to this level soon as I want to move ££ across. What are your thoughts on this?

I'm heavily in euros and soiling my pants with increasing frequency.

I've had an epiphany today of the 'understanding the blindingly obvious' type: the currency signals of old cannot be relied upon anymore.

The level of central bank coordination across the world is unprecedented and has now (I think) reached a level similar to the coordination of clearing banks by a central bank. Central banking allowed the coordination of inflation rates across all clearing banks, the aim being to avoid excessive (visible) credit inflation of one bank vs. others thus (usually) preventing bank runs and creating inflation by stealth; this global coordination is allowing countries to inflate all at the same rate thus avoiding currency crises.

The answer to this lies somewhere else.

Commodities are not an easy answer either as their prices can easily be managed via the supply of paper commodities.

So I don't know.

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Based primarily on Moody's rating review of three French banks (including BNP, ze biggest bank in ze world mon ami). We know absurdly oversized and overleveraged European banks are, even by US standards. This could be potentially explosive.

I think European banks but primarily French banks have been repatriating cash in double quick time before a potential Greek default. The recent strength of the euro could support a theory of liquidation (as reported by ZH recently) / cash repatriation.

The Greeks also seem to be in the mood for a default now. We might be on for a bit of panic.

FTSE is down nearly 1%.. I've seen worse black-day calls.

Hmm...well the direction is right though not sure 1% down is "explosive" or "panic". In fact, 1% down days are relatively regular.

In October 2008 the FTSE was down over 5% in one day.

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I stand by my call for this week - the ides of March have come. Aye, but not yet gone Caesar.

Weekly black calls are unfair. I'm sure there is a paragraph somewhere in the hpc user manual that forbids them.

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Yes, that was a bad call in retrospect.

I'd disagree. The fact that a bailout was announced at that time probably confirms that the markets were on the verge of a correction.

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Hmm...well the direction is right though not sure 1% down is "explosive" or "panic". In fact, 1% down days are relatively regular.

In October 2008 the FTSE was down over 5% in one day.

The FTSE doesn't matter these days. It's all New York and the odds are still decent for a waterfall event by the end of the session.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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