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House Prices Fall A Further 0.1% - Hometrack

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http://www.themovechannel.com/News/2005/September/30a.asp

House prices fall a further 0.1% - HomeTrack

The Hometrack September survey of the national housing market reports a further fall of -0.1% in the average house price for the UK. House prices have now been falling for 15 consecutive months. The national average house price now stands at £160,900, down from a peak of £167,700 in June 2004 and down over 3.7% in the past 12 months.

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I think mr wrigglesworth could be right about next year, i know ALOT of people who are wanting to buy next spring, the big question is will the recession really start to kick in by christmas and put these people off? or will next year produce a bit of a comeback... Looking at the graphs i do think we might get another spring bounce for a couple of mounths...

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Do they want to buy into a falling market though? If you are looking at buying in London or SE that is what you would be doing RIGHT NOW. If you are buying in a region where prices are still somehow rising then you are on notice that elsewhere in the country prices are on their way down (however slowly). That is bound to affect sentiment. This was all said in exactly the same way in the autumns of 1989, 1990 and 1991.

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Guest Alright Jack

“Hometrack believes the present trend of house price falls will end before the end of this year. While house price falls are on track to meet our -5% forecast for the year, we expect a reasonably strong rebound for 2006. While another boom in house prices is not in prospect, a house price crash can clearly be ruled out.”

Wow, that's confidence!

I tend to agree more or less. And I agree there probably isn't much more scope for large increases for a while.

My take on this is that the whole sector is stratified into two major areas:- Properties that are in real demand, and those that aren't.

The prospects for most of the newly built rat hole flats / appartments that some BTLers have been buying into is rather bleak and I can well envisage a period of falling price-tags (having never been sold before amount to initial over-valuation of vendors rather than price collapse. This is a very important point to remember) Or amalgamation of said properties into decent sized accomodation.

Recent investors into this area are likely to be slaughtered.

I think we are seeing continued strength in quality family homes (3 to 4 bed) of which there is a desparate shortage of. The continued strength, possible growth further, will offset the figures for the above class somewhat and thus we will see 'on average' a stagnating trend for some years to come.

I do think there is a deep division in the housing stock in general and thus the current situation is unprecedented (yes, you can read "different this time" if you want to). The old rules of fifteen years ago just don't really apply.

To that end, in a few years you could pick up a dirt cheap shoe-box... But do you want one? I don't think so. If you want quality, as I have said before, you have to put your hand in your pocket and stop expecting a free ride.

Edited by Alright Jack

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Interesting that Brighton is getting such a beating. Suggests that the "can't afford London" rush to Brighton is dissipating, perhaps? Isn't Brighton especially volatile ito house prices?

2% in one month in Brighton. If had bought the flat I'm renting I would have lost k4 in August, that's over over 5 months rent!!!!!

Brighton has been massively overvalued for a long time, and property here is not shifting at all. Estate agents have had properites in their windows for up to a year, and I know a number of new build apartment developemnts that have sold less than half their flats a year after completing. The market here in Brighton is in real trouble :)

The main reason is that local wages are very low compared to the rest of the south east, and whilst a number of commuters have moved here, the reality of commuting from Brighton is aweful (over an hour on a very crowded train). The town attracts a lot of trendy women and gays, but it is less attractive to the big earning city types who are the only ones who can afford current prices.

Back in 1995 Brighton was very cheap compard to the rest of the south East, I expect a reasonable adjustment so that it is once again at sensible levels (2% a month for two years will do very nicely thank you).

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The prospects for most of the newly built rat hole flats / appartments that some BTLers have been buying into is rather bleak and I can well envisage a period of falling price-tags (having never been sold before amount to initial over-valuation of vendors rather than price collapse. This is a very important point to remember)..

I think we are seeing continued strength in quality family homes (3 to 4 bed) of which there is a desparate shortage of. The continued strength, possible growth further, will offset the figures for the above class somewhat and thus we will see 'on average' a stagnating trend for some years to come.

Isn't the first comment somewhat academic?

If my flat is priced at £220k and then drops to £160k (or whatever) does it really matter whether the £60k is a result of a "genuine" price collapse or the vendor realising his current price is Mickey Mouse?

As far as a potential buyer like myself is concerned all that matters is that the price has fallen significantly - back to a sensible level.

As for the second point, how do these guys buy the three/four bed place without selling their two bed etc for a good figure?

And if the price of the two bed is collapsing (as in your first statement above) how do they afford to maintain the jump up the chain?

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It seems prices have dropped 4.05% since the peak in June '04.

In the mean-time wages have inflated by around 5% (I think).

This autumn/winter will be very interesting, as will next year's 'spring bounce'.

Edited by HPCheese

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“Hometrack believes the present trend of house price falls will end before the end of this year. While house price falls are on track to meet our -5% forecast for the year, we expect a reasonably strong rebound for 2006. While another boom in house prices is not in prospect, a house price crash can clearly be ruled out.”

Wow, that's confidence!

I tend to agree more or less. And I agree there probably isn't much more scope for large increases for a while.

My take on this is that the whole sector is stratified into two major areas:- Properties that are in real demand, and those that aren't.

The prospects for most of the newly built rat hole flats / appartments that some BTLers have been buying into is rather bleak and I can well envisage a period of falling price-tags (having never been sold before amount to initial over-valuation of vendors rather than price collapse. This is a very important point to remember) Or amalgamation of said properties into decent sized accomodation.

Recent investors into this area are likely to be slaughtered.

I think we are seeing continued strength in quality family homes (3 to 4 bed) of which there is a desparate shortage of. The continued strength, possible growth further, will offset the figures for the above class somewhat and thus we will see 'on average' a stagnating trend for some years to come.

I do think there is a deep division in the housing stock in general and thus the current situation is unprecedented (yes, you can read "different this time" if you want to). The old rules of fifteen years ago just don't really apply.

To that end, in a few years you could pick up a dirt cheap shoe-box... But do you want one? I don't think so. If you want quality, as I have said before, you have to put your hand in your pocket and stop expecting a free ride.

3/4 beds are now showing some of the biggest reductions in my area (Yorks)

its all relative and proves people won't pay inflated prices, whatever it is.

But, if it makes you happy, keep on believing what you post (poor chap :( )

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3/4 beds are now showing some of the biggest reductions in my area (Yorks)

its all relative and proves people won't pay inflated prices, whatever it is.

But, if it makes you happy, keep on believing what you post (poor chap :( )

Anyone got a link for the complete Hometrack report ? Whats happening in Bournemouth area ?

Edited by penbat1

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I don't understand the figures to be honest.

I have personally seen prices in Exeter fall by tens of thousands..

Properties that would have been £180,000 a year ago.. new builds.. beinf sold int he phase two of the devlopment for £140,000 and on top of that my deposit and stamp duty and solicitor fees would have been paid for me.

Perhaps in a struggling market different houses sell.

My perspective is that I can look at a studio converted flat in exeter.. say the attic of an old house.. and that would be £90,000.

a large detached big house could be £500,000 easily..

So.. what sells..

The difference in real value of homes has an average cost drawn against all homes.. regardless of relative value.

If different homes sell now.. that might seem the average prices change..

Say one month something bizarre happens and only the small studios sell..

That doesent make the average price of a home under £100,000 and likewise if only big houses sell.. the average price is not half a million..

This is an extreme example and clearly silly..

But it makes my point..

Not that many houses are selling... so any swing in the type of homes that do sell would impact the average price far more then an overall drop in price when considered in like for like terms..

I can only reflect my opinion on what I see..

and I saw myself abel to negotiate a £10,000 drop in price for a £140,000 flat inside ten minutes..

That shows me that an overall drop since last year of £50,000 seems unlikely when the press reports are looked at..

But there is a large development with a lot of these flats and three more "phases" to go that shows me what has happened.

Granted Devon and Exeter are different.

We have amongst the lowest wages.. but we also have amongst the highest prices.. also we have seen inflation hit almost 4 times multiples since the boob began..

We also have developments built to cover housing requirements over a decade.. in essence and real terms a surplus.

also.. current prices if mainteained would have to create too much debt over the next few years for the economy to survive.

difficult..

but its happening..

and if it stops.. then the debt burden that would have to increase will eventually force prices to drop.

Its not that it might not happen..

Its the question that is it happening now.. which I see that it is near me..

and if it isn't.. it has to.. that is economic fact..

the debt burden to maintain prices theory I have psoted and no bull has even tried yet to counter it..

I would be intrigued if they could..

I might be wrong..

I can't see how.. but I would values an opinion or idea that I have not considered or might have missed.

go on.. I need a bull to convince me otherwise.

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One of the things I’ve noticed about watching house prices is that while individual houses gradually tumble in price, the average price of similar houses falls much more slowly, and can actually rise. It’s a bit like looking at the crests of water waves – the crests travel faster than the group, the ones at the front disappear to be replaced by new ones at the back.

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One of the things I’ve noticed about watching house prices is that while individual houses gradually tumble in price, the average price of similar houses falls much more slowly, and can actually rise. It’s a bit like looking at the crests of water waves – the crests travel faster than the group, the ones at the front disappear to be replaced by new ones at the back.

the overpriced will become the stale crust on the over-baked pie that is the property market !

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Donnie actually predicetd something that came true!

:lol:

I knew Brighton would (s)tumble and fall...it is precisely those kind of places where the major economy is from tourists, weekenders and the like drinking £3 coffees and buying designer clothes that were likley to be the biggest victims of the HPC.

Their micro-econmoies are the ones most funded by the crdit-binge we've 'enjoyed' for the last decade.

Is it mere conicidence that AMEX are based down there!?

:lol:

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The trouble with Brighton is it doesn't really have the salaries to match the house prices.

A lot is made of its laid back atmosphere and its proximity to London, but the truth is that if you work in the City it's really not a viable daily commute.

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the overpriced will become the stale crust on the over-baked pie that is the property market !

A souffle analogy – rather than letting it burn to a crisp, the BoE opened the over door early … :lol:

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The trouble with Brighton is it doesn't really have the salaries to match the house prices.

A lot is made of its laid back atmosphere and its proximity to London, but the truth is that if you work in the City it's really not a viable daily commute.

Don't underestimate how the pink-pound has created its own boom-market too.

2 guys or gals, no kids and 2 salaries. Gay couples are able to throw a % of their income at property that heteros will never be able to.

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I don't understand the figures to be honest.

I have personally seen prices in Exeter fall by tens of thousands..

Don't forget, apom, that Exeter dropped 0.5% in the month according to Hometrack and that ain't too shabby as an average reduction.

Well, it is more than my rent...

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Donnie actually predicetd something that came true!

:lol:

I knew Brighton would (s)tumble and fall...it is precisely those kind of places where the major economy is from tourists, weekenders and the like drinking £3 coffees and buying designer clothes that were likley to be the biggest victims of the HPC.

Their micro-econmoies are the ones most funded by the crdit-binge we've 'enjoyed' for the last decade.

Is it mere conicidence that AMEX are based down there!?

:lol:

Went there recently... their economy seems entirely based on coffee shops, clothes shops and clubs... all non-essential spending. Industry appears to be trendy and frothy too - lots of design agencies etc.. It's not even that idyllic a place; lots of undernourished folk around, dirty streets, run-down property....

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Was in Brighton a few weeks ago, live nearby, but generally try to avoid the place.

Caught a taxi and the driver was saying how bad business was, how nobody has any money to spend, people are only going out once a month on payday, load of people MEWed up to their ears...

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Went there recently... their economy seems entirely based on coffee shops, clothes shops and clubs... all non-essential spending. Industry appears to be trendy and frothy too - lots of design agencies etc.. It's not even that idyllic a place; lots of undernourished folk around, dirty streets, run-down property....

Yes. It's a pretty nice place but tends to get chav-bashed at the weekend from the surrouding nowhere-towns.

Brightonians would like to have you believe that they live at Covent Garden-by-the-sea.

It is more like Crouch End-by-the-sea. Nice enough but way way way overpriced.

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This is excellent

On past form - if Wrigglesworth says something can be ruled out - that pretty much guarantees that its going to happen.

More seriously - why does he even mention it - "me thinks he doth protest too much".

BAB

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This is excellent

On past form - if Wrigglesworth says something can be ruled out - that pretty much guarantees that its going to happen.

More seriously - why does he even mention it - "me thinks he doth protest too much".

BAB

Yeah, what was his original prediction for this year? 5%?

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the overpriced will become the stale crust on the over-baked pie that is the property market !

The overpriced will become the stale crusty yellow stained Y's somehow always left a the bottom of the laundry basket never to be washed.

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The old rules of fifteen years ago just don't really apply. [Alright Jack]

The rules of economics are immutable.

The trouble with Brighton is it doesn't really have the salaries to match the house prices. [doogie]

The trouble with Brighton is it doesn't really have the house prices to match the salaries.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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